VTR
Moving with its group (XLRE +1.1%)
- VTR +1.28% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- The real estate ETF (XLRE) +1.1% (+1.0 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg ($85.39 today so far, above its 200-day average of $85.08): After its 8 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, VTR was higher a day later 3 times out of 8; half the outcomes fell between -0.5% and +1.4%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices VTR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
85.41 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
86.78 +2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 85.39 · prior close 84.31 | |
| Bargain buy side |
83.23 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
81.91 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 82.88 | 2 in 10 days | 85.77 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 83.23 | 3 in 10 days | 85.41 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 83.55 | 4 in 10 days | 85.07 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 81.14 | 2 in 10 weeks | 87.60 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 81.91 | 3 in 10 weeks | 86.78 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 82.63 | 4 in 10 weeks | 86.03 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From VTR's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among VTR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 113.00 +32.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 101.82 +19.2% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 24, 2026 |
99.93 +17.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 90.00 +5.4% |
| 50-day average | 88.05 +3.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 86.78 +1.6% |
| Now | 85.39 |
| 200-day average | 85.12 -0.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
84.31 -1.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 81.91 -4.1% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
66.33 -22.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 29 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.