VTRS
Moving with its group (XLV +2.7%)
- VTRS +4.07% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +4.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.7% (+2.7 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+4.1% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.3%): After its 60 big gains in the past 5 years, VTRS was higher a month later 42 times out of 60; half the outcomes fell between -1.6% and +9.8%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: UBS maintained Buy, raised target $23.00 → $26.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices VTRS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
17.67 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
17.95 +2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 18.15 · prior close 17.44 | |
| Bargain buy side |
17.22 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
16.94 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 17.14 | 2 in 10 days | 17.74 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 17.22 | 3 in 10 days | 17.67 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 17.28 | 4 in 10 days | 17.60 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 16.78 | 2 in 10 weeks | 18.12 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 16.94 | 3 in 10 weeks | 17.95 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 17.09 | 4 in 10 weeks | 17.80 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From VTRS's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among VTRS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 24, 2015 |
60.74 +234.7% |
| Highest analyst target | 26.00 +43.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 19.70 +8.5% |
| 52-week closing high Sep 28, 2026 |
18.27 +0.7% |
| Now | 18.15 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 17.95 -1.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
17.44 -3.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 16.94 -6.7% |
| 50-day average | 16.90 -6.9% |
| 200-day average | 15.40 -15.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 13.00 -28.4% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
9.59 -47.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.