VVX
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- VVX +0.92% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices VVX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
69.68 +2.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
71.66 +5.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 68.75 · prior close 68.12 | |
| Bargain buy side |
66.60 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
64.76 -4.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 66.11 | 2 in 10 days | 70.19 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 66.60 | 3 in 10 days | 69.68 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 67.05 | 4 in 10 days | 69.20 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 63.70 | 2 in 10 weeks | 72.84 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 64.76 | 3 in 10 weeks | 71.66 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 65.76 | 4 in 10 weeks | 70.57 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From VVX's daily swings (about 2.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among VVX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 12, 2026 |
90.81 +32.1% |
| 50-day average | 75.61 +10.0% |
| 200-day average | 73.08 +6.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 71.66 +4.2% |
| Now | 68.75 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
68.12 -0.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 64.76 -5.8% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
52.16 -24.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 12 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.