WAT
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- WAT −0.08% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −0.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 1): After its 57 big drops in the past 5 years, WAT typically gained 0.4% over the next day (median) and was higher 60% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -0.6% and +1.5%. An ordinary day: -0.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #34 of 500.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | 0.0%#483 H | +0.1%#369 H | +0.7%#280 H | +0.6%#336 M |
| Big drop Oct 1 (-2.2% or worse) | 57 | +0.4%#34 H | +0.5%#195 H | +2.7%#79 H | +5.8%#199 M |
| Big gain (+2.4% or better) | 72 | +0.1%#233 H | +0.3%#309 H | +0.2%#354 H | -0.1%#307 M |
| Earnings beat | 19 | -0.3%#411 M | -0.3%#416 M | +1.6%#191 M | -0.1%#397 M |
| Earnings miss | 1 | -1.6%– | -3.8%– | -9.7%– | +5.5%– |
| 52-week high | 7 | -0.1%#298 L | -0.7%#332 L | -3.4%#385 L | -3.0%#340 L |
| 52-week low | 3 | +0.8%#12 L | -0.7%#262 L | +2.5%#121 L | +16.2%#19 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 10 | -0.4%#389 M | +1.0%#179 M | +4.5%#156 M | +4.6%#226 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 11 | +0.3%#105 M | +1.7%#117 M | +0.9%#249 M | +6.1%#169 M |
| RSI oversold | 14 | +0.2%#141 M | -0.2%#456 M | +1.8%#268 M | +7.1%#147 M |
| RSI overbought | 13 | 0.0%#216 M | -2.0%#456 M | -2.7%#462 M | -4.9%#370 M |
| Reddit spike | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is WAT's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 13 | +0.03% (-0.2 to +0.3) | Medium | #216 of 501 | 54% | -0.06% |
-2%
+5%
|
|
| 1 week | 13 | -2.04% (-3.6 to -0.9) | Medium | #456 of 501 | 23% | -3.29% |
-5%
+10%
|
|
| 1 month | 13 | -2.74% (-6.1 to -0.1) | Medium | #462 of 501 | 31% | -4.62% |
-18%
+8%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 12 ≈11 indep. | -4.86% (-12.6 to +2.2) | Medium | #370 of 501 | 42% | -8.32% |
-20%
+15%
|
Range of outcomes: all of WAT's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 11 | 0.0%M vs -0.1% | -2.0%M vs -0.1% | -2.2%M vs -0.2% | -0.6%M vs -3.4% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 1 | -0.6%– vs +0.1% | -1.0%– vs +0.2% | -7.5%– vs +2.0% | -12.6%– vs +11.4% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 13 | 0.0%M vs -0.1% | -2.0%M vs +0.1% | -2.7%M vs +1.0% | -4.9%M vs -2.9% |
| Below its 50-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 13 | 0.0%M vs -0.2% | -2.0%M vs +0.1% | -2.7%M vs +0.7% | -4.9%M vs -0.2% |
| Below its 20-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where WAT stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Aug 11 @ $415.00 | RSI 70.6, +0.8% on the day | +0.3% | -3.3% | -3.2% | … |
| May 29, 2026 | May 29 @ $383.57 | RSI 72.9, +4.6% on the day | -1.4% | -4.7% | -2.2% | +8.1% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Nov 21 @ $393.99 | RSI 74.3, +4.1% on the day | +1.4% | +1.0% | -2.7% | -18.9% |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Oct 21 @ $349.23 | RSI 72.0, +1.8% on the day | -0.2% | -0.9% | +7.7% | +14.7% |
| Jan 14, 2025 | Jan 14 @ $404.93 | RSI 70.5, +1.3% on the day | -1.8% | +0.8% | -6.4% | -20.1% |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Nov 1 @ $387.21 | RSI 72.0, +19.8% on the day | 0.0% | -0.7% | -0.1% | +6.9% |
| Jul 31, 2024 | Jul 31 @ $336.28 | RSI 71.5, +2.6% on the day | +4.8% | -4.3% | +2.5% | -3.5% |
| May 14, 2024 | May 14 @ $358.99 | RSI 70.1, +2.8% on the day | +0.8% | -2.0% | -17.7% | -6.3% |
| Mar 7, 2024 | Mar 7 @ $361.00 | RSI 73.6, +3.4% on the day | -1.4% | -4.8% | -6.1% | -16.7% |
| Dec 12, 2023 | Dec 12 @ $297.79 | RSI 70.7, +0.5% on the day | +4.8% | +10.5% | +3.4% | +15.4% |
| Jul 21, 2023 | Jul 21 @ $288.72 | RSI 74.8, +3.2% on the day | -0.6% | -1.0% | -7.5% | -12.6% |
| Nov 10, 2022 | Nov 10 @ $331.85 | RSI 71.1, +7.2% on the day | 0.0% | -3.6% | +2.7% | +2.2% |
| Dec 29, 2021 | Dec 29 @ $370.82 | RSI 70.1, +0.9% on the day | +0.3% | -5.4% | -14.5% | -13.3% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.