WCN
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- WCN +3.90% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +3.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Wed after the close: EPS $1.51 expected (10 analysts).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.9× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices WCN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
158.42 +1.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
160.42 +2.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 162.93 · prior close 156.82 | |
| Bargain buy side |
155.24 -1.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
153.30 -2.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 154.72 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 158.94 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 155.24 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 158.42 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 155.71 | 4 in 10 days | 157.93 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 152.17 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 161.61 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 153.30 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 160.42 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 154.36 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 159.32 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From WCN's daily swings (about 1.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | +2.1% | -0.6% | — | — |
| Sep 3, 2026 | +1.7% | -4.2% | -7.5% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | +1.9% | -0.9% | -8.0% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | +2.0% | -1.1% | -1.5% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | +2.1% | -4.8% | -3.9% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +2.5% | -3.6% | -4.4% | -9.9% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +2.5% | +1.3% | -0.6% | -10.6% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +3.9% | +4.5% | +5.4% | -2.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among WCN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 3, 2025 |
198.01 +21.5% |
| 52-week closing high Dec 29, 2025 |
177.39 +8.9% |
| Now | 162.93 |
| 200-day average | 162.54 -0.2% |
| 50-day average | 160.76 -1.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 160.42 -1.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
156.82 -3.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 153.30 -5.9% |
| 52-week closing low May 29, 2026 |
148.70 -8.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 28 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.