WDC
Down more than its memory & storage peers
- WDC −4.56% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −4.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 after the close: EPS $4.08 expected (20 analysts); it moved ±7.5% on average after its last 8 reports.
- More than its group: its memory & storage peers -2.3% (-2.4 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, rsi oversold (RSI 29 today so far, below 30): After its 8 oversold readings in the past 5 years, WDC was higher a day later 3 times out of 8; half the outcomes fell between -1.1% and +0.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.7× its 20-day average; options price a ±9.8% move through the report.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices WDC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
379.08 +4.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
398.44 +9.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 347.49 · prior close 364.10 | |
| Bargain buy side |
349.72 -4.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
332.72 -8.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 345.17 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 384.07 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 349.72 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 379.08 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 354.01 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 374.48 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 323.12 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 410.28 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 332.72 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 398.44 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 341.92 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 387.72 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From WDC's daily swings (about 4.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | -10.2% | -4.3% | — | — |
| Sep 24, 2026 | -4.9% | +2.7% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -4.4% | -8.0% | -13.8% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -7.4% | -9.2% | -14.5% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -5.4% | -12.5% | -14.9% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -6.9% | +4.8% | -16.2% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -4.6% | -12.3% | -21.2% | -28.5% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -6.3% | -3.4% | -8.9% | -24.0% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among WDC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 1,050.00 +202.2% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 18, 2026 |
745.99 +114.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 670.79 +93.0% |
| 50-day average | 444.33 +27.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 420.00 +20.9% |
| 200-day average | 409.51 +17.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 398.44 +14.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
364.10 +4.8% |
| Now | 347.49 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 332.72 -4.3% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
112.92 -67.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 48 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.