WFG
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- WFG +2.80% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +2.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.8× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices WFG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
65.05 +1.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
66.48 +4.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 65.71 · prior close 63.92 | |
| Bargain buy side |
62.81 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
61.46 -3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 62.45 | 2 in 10 days | 65.42 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 62.81 | 3 in 10 days | 65.05 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 63.14 | 4 in 10 days | 64.71 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 60.68 | 2 in 10 weeks | 67.33 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 61.46 | 3 in 10 weeks | 66.48 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 62.20 | 4 in 10 weeks | 65.69 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From WFG's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among WFG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 11, 2024 |
98.51 +49.9% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 4, 2026 |
75.61 +15.1% |
| 50-day average | 68.53 +4.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 66.48 +1.2% |
| 200-day average | 66.47 +1.2% |
| Now | 65.71 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
63.92 -2.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 61.46 -6.5% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 5, 2025 |
57.10 -13.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 18 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.