WMB
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- WMB −3.87% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −4.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (-3.9% today so far, past its big-drop line of -1.7%): After its 66 big drops in the past 5 years, WMB was higher a week later 41 times out of 66; half the outcomes fell between -1.1% and +2.9%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices WMB only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
73.86 +1.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
75.18 +3.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 69.98 · prior close 72.80 | |
| Bargain buy side |
71.76 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
70.50 -3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 71.43 | 2 in 10 days | 74.20 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 71.76 | 3 in 10 days | 73.86 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 72.07 | 4 in 10 days | 73.53 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 69.76 | 2 in 10 weeks | 75.97 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 70.50 | 3 in 10 weeks | 75.18 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 71.19 | 4 in 10 weeks | 74.45 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From WMB's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | -1.9% | +1.8% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -3.1% | -0.7% | +0.5% | — |
| Aug 17, 2026 | -2.3% | -3.4% | -2.8% | — |
| Aug 7, 2026 | -1.9% | +6.8% | +7.7% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -1.7% | -3.3% | -4.1% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | -2.1% | +0.1% | -1.8% | +1.0% |
| Jun 29, 2026 | -3.7% | 0.0% | -6.6% | -7.4% |
| May 29, 2026 | -2.4% | +0.8% | +4.9% | +4.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among WMB's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 103.00 +47.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 85.46 +22.1% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 19, 2026 |
78.25 +11.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 75.18 +7.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
72.80 +4.0% |
| 50-day average | 72.04 +2.9% |
| 200-day average | 70.90 +1.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 70.50 +0.7% |
| Now | 69.98 |
| Lowest analyst target | 69.00 -1.4% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
54.84 -21.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 45 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.