WMG
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- WMG +4.60% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +4.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.8× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices WMG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
29.37 +1.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
29.96 +3.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 30.24 · prior close 28.91 | |
| Bargain buy side |
28.45 -1.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
27.90 -3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 28.31 | 2 in 10 days | 29.53 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 28.45 | 3 in 10 days | 29.37 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 28.59 | 4 in 10 days | 29.23 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 27.58 | 2 in 10 weeks | 30.31 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 27.90 | 3 in 10 weeks | 29.96 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 28.20 | 4 in 10 weeks | 29.64 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From WMG's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among WMG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 28, 2021 |
44.32 +46.6% |
| 52-week closing high May 26, 2026 |
34.31 +13.4% |
| Now | 30.24 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 29.96 -0.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
28.91 -4.4% |
| 200-day average | 28.27 -6.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 27.90 -7.7% |
| 50-day average | 27.61 -8.7% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 24, 2026 |
23.35 -22.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.