WMS
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- WMS +2.61% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices WMS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
127.20 +1.6% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
129.72 +3.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 128.46 · prior close 125.19 | |
| Bargain buy side |
123.21 -1.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
120.82 -3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 122.58 | 2 in 10 days | 127.86 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 123.21 | 3 in 10 days | 127.20 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 123.81 | 4 in 10 days | 126.59 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 119.43 | 2 in 10 weeks | 131.23 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 120.82 | 3 in 10 weeks | 129.72 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 122.12 | 4 in 10 weeks | 128.33 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From WMS's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | -3.5% | -1.2% | -1.1% | — |
| Apr 3, 2025 | -6.2% | +0.2% | +11.6% | +12.3% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | -1.9% | +1.6% | -3.0% | 0.0% |
| Dec 13, 2024 | -1.1% | -9.1% | -2.1% | -11.5% |
| Mar 15, 2023 | -4.6% | -0.2% | +2.1% | +37.0% |
| Dec 28, 2022 | -2.0% | +1.0% | +17.4% | +3.9% |
| Jun 13, 2022 | -5.9% | -8.6% | +1.6% | +49.1% |
| Apr 27, 2022 | -1.9% | +5.5% | +6.4% | +13.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among WMS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high May 21, 2024 |
177.00 +37.8% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 6, 2026 |
174.69 +36.0% |
| 200-day average | 144.36 +12.4% |
| 50-day average | 133.86 +4.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 129.72 +1.0% |
| Now | 128.46 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
125.19 -2.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
125.19 -2.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 120.82 -6.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 12 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.