WMT
Moving with the market
- WMT 0.00% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −0.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Mizuho maintained Outperform, lowered target $130 → $125.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#42 H | +0.6%#39 H | +1.9%#48 H | +6.0%#47 M |
| Big drop (-1.6% or worse) | 67 | +0.1%#289 H | +1.1%#7 H | +2.9%#12 H | +6.9%#80 M |
| Big gain (+1.7% or better) | 70 | +0.1%#246 H | -0.2%#430 H | +2.3%#104 H | +6.6%#104 M |
| Earnings beat | 16 | -0.3%#369 M | +0.2%#315 M | +2.7%#87 M | +4.6%#52 M |
| Earnings miss | 2 | -4.0%– | -3.7%– | -1.6%– | +4.7%– |
| 52-week high | 19 | +0.2%#120 M | +0.7%#10 M | 0.0%#372 M | +6.2%#35 M |
| 52-week low | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 5 | +0.1%#227 L | +3.2%#169 L | +5.1%#177 L | +4.9%#206 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 4 | -1.0%#457 L | +2.5%#189 L | +0.3%#266 L | +12.5%#125 L |
| RSI oversold | 7 | +0.1%#261 L | +1.3%#133 L | +3.3%#100 L | +6.3%#241 L |
| RSI overbought | 24 | +0.2%#68 H | +0.1%#201 H | -0.1%#365 H | +6.5%#22 M |
| Reddit spike | 24 | +0.7%#2 H | -0.2%#81 H | 0.0%#74 H | +4.0%#46 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 1 | -1.4%– | -4.7%– | -1.1%– | -11.2%– |
| Analyst downgrade | 2 | +0.3%– | +2.1%– | -3.0%– | -4.0%– |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 11 | +0.4%#4 M | +0.9%#14 M | +2.1%#22 M | -6.1%#24 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is WMT's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 24 | +0.22% (-0.2 to +0.4) | High | #68 of 501 | 54% | +0.08% |
-8%
+3%
|
|
| 1 week | 24 | +0.15% (-0.8 to +0.7) | High | #201 of 501 | 50% | -0.40% |
-9%
+5%
|
|
| 1 month | 24 ≈22 indep. | -0.07% (-2.5 to +2.0) | High | #365 of 501 | 50% | -0.34% |
-25%
+11%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 24 ≈13 indep. | +6.54% (+0.7 to +10.2) | Medium | #22 of 501 | 71% | +3.22% |
-17%
+15%
|
Range of outcomes: all of WMT's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 22 | +0.1%H vs +0.1% | +0.1%H vs +0.6% | -0.1%H vs +2.1% | +6.8%M vs +6.4% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 24 | +0.2%H vs +0.1% | +0.1%H vs +0.3% | -0.1%H vs +1.3% | +6.5%M vs +5.4% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 24 | +0.2%H vs +0.1% | +0.1%H vs +0.4% | -0.1%H vs +1.3% | +6.5%M vs +5.5% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where WMT stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | Feb 2 @ $123.28 | RSI 72.5, +4.1% on the day | +2.9% | +4.0% | +3.0% | +5.3% |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Jan 13 @ $119.60 | RSI 71.3, +2.0% on the day | -0.3% | -0.8% | +11.0% | +3.9% |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Dec 3 @ $113.45 | RSI 73.0, +1.8% on the day | +0.4% | -1.1% | -1.3% | +8.4% |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Oct 14 @ $106.31 | RSI 70.8, +5.0% on the day | +1.7% | -0.9% | -3.5% | +12.2% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Aug 6 @ $102.26 | RSI 75.1, +4.1% on the day | -0.2% | -2.3% | -2.5% | -0.8% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Feb 19 @ $102.36 | RSI 70.2, +0.2% on the day | -6.5% | -7.5% | -17.5% | -5.5% |
| Jan 27, 2025 | Jan 27 @ $95.87 | RSI 71.2, +2.8% on the day | -0.1% | +2.2% | -1.2% | -2.0% |
| Dec 16, 2024 | Dec 16 @ $93.38 | RSI 71.0, +0.7% on the day | +0.6% | -4.8% | -3.1% | -9.6% |
| Nov 20, 2024 | Nov 20 @ $85.62 | RSI 70.4, +0.7% on the day | +1.4% | +5.4% | +6.0% | +12.3% |
| Sep 25, 2024 | Sep 25 @ $79.94 | RSI 72.1, +0.9% on the day | -1.8% | -1.2% | +2.0% | +14.1% |
| Aug 16, 2024 | Aug 16 @ $72.13 | RSI 70.6, +0.7% on the day | +0.4% | +3.1% | +7.0% | +15.0% |
| Jul 10, 2024 | Jul 10 @ $68.95 | RSI 70.5, +0.7% on the day | -0.9% | +0.9% | -3.9% | +13.5% |
| Jun 20, 2024 | Jun 20 @ $66.60 | RSI 71.5, +0.6% on the day | -0.1% | -0.2% | +3.5% | +15.1% |
| May 16, 2024 | May 16 @ $62.68 | RSI 74.4, +7.0% on the day | +1.0% | +1.3% | +5.3% | +15.1% |
| Mar 11, 2024 | Mar 11 @ $59.00 | RSI 71.5, +0.9% on the day | +1.2% | +0.7% | +0.3% | +11.1% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.