WMT
Up on Deutsche Bank upgrade to Buy
- WMT +1.78% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +1.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: Deutsche Bank upgraded WMT to Buy with $136 price target, per finance.yahoo.com. (finance.yahoo.com)
- The consumer staples ETF (XLP) +0.9% (+0.9 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (RSI 72 today so far, above 70): After its 24 overbought readings in the past 5 years, WMT was higher a day later 13 times out of 24; half the outcomes fell between -0.8% and +0.8%. History, not a forecast.
- 29 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 78% positive over the week · today's pace is 3.2× its recent daily average.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Deutsche Bank upgraded to Buy, raised target $113 → $136.
- 3 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices WMT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
118.12 +1.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
120.58 +3.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 118.22 · prior close 116.16 | |
| Bargain buy side |
114.24 -1.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
111.90 -3.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 113.62 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 118.76 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 114.24 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 118.12 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 114.82 | 4 in 10 days | 117.52 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 110.55 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 122.05 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 111.90 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 120.58 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 113.18 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 119.22 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From WMT's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | +2.0% | +4.7% | — | — |
| Sep 22, 2026 | +2.5% | -3.0% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | +1.8% | -1.5% | +2.9% | — |
| Sep 3, 2026 | +2.2% | -1.2% | -3.1% | — |
| Aug 24, 2026 | +2.7% | -1.5% | +3.8% | — |
| Aug 12, 2026 | +2.4% | -1.5% | -7.4% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | +2.1% | -0.9% | -5.5% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +2.2% | -5.7% | +0.3% | +1.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among WMT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 155.00 +31.1% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 19, 2026 |
133.88 +13.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 127.35 +7.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 120.58 +2.0% |
| Now | 118.22 |
| 200-day average | 117.83 -0.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
116.16 -1.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 111.90 -5.3% |
| 50-day average | 108.73 -8.0% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 19, 2025 |
99.77 -15.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 81.00 -31.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.