Moving with the market
- WOLF −1.12% on the last session vs SPY −0.42%: −0.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: Wolfspeed announced a conditional $1.5 billion Department of War loan commitment (Wolfspeed press release). (finance.yahoo.com)
- Filing: 8-K: Reg FD disclosure, other event (item 7.01, 8.01) (filing)
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (26 mentions vs 0.1/day the week before): After its 8 mention spikes in the past 5 years, WOLF typically gained 29.4% over the next day (median) and was higher 100% of the time; half the outcomes fell between +29.4% and +29.4%. An ordinary day: -0.3%. (Low confidence: few independent periods.)
- 14 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 85% positive over the week · today's pace is 2.6× its recent daily average.
- Market backdrop (Wed): Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026; S&P futures +0.03%, 10-year yield -1bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume 7.7× its 20-day average.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 259 | — | -0.3%#295 H | +0.3%#235 H | -3.7%#272 M | -7.0%#229 L |
| Big drop (-8.3% or worse) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Big gain (+10.1% or better) | 1 | — | +13.2%– | -0.5%– | — | — |
| Earnings beat | 3 | -9.4%#249 L | +0.6%#232 L | +2.3%#227 L | +5.2%#229 L | -36.2%– |
| Earnings miss | 1 | -9.7%– | +1.4%– | +3.0%– | +14.4%– | +190.8%– |
| 52-week high | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week low | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 2 | — | +1.2%– | -1.9%– | -12.1%– | — |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 1 | — | -11.1%– | -8.4%– | -0.8%– | — |
| RSI oversold | 1 | — | +3.1%– | +2.3%– | +7.2%– | — |
| RSI overbought Oct 2 | 4 | — | -5.0%#472 L | +8.6%#222 L | +90.7%– | -23.8%– |
| Volume spike latest session | 5 | — | +1.4%#245 L | +3.8%#182 L | +52.6%#206 L | +31.5%– |
| Theme selloff | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 9 | — | +29.4%– | +18.4%– | +39.2%– | -21.7%– |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | 1 | — | -7.9%– | -3.5%– | +9.0%– | -22.3%– |
| Insider unplanned sale | 1 | — | -7.9%– | -3.5%– | +9.0%– | -22.3%– |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is WOLF's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 4 | -4.96% (-5.0 to -5.0) | Low | #472 of 499 | 25% | -5.03% |
-5%
+1%
|
|
| 1 week | 3 | +8.64% (-14.7 to +17.7) | Low | #222 of 499 | 67% | +5.44% |
-15%
+18%
|
|
| 1 month | 3 ≈2 indep. | +90.75% | Too few | — | 67% | +82.26% |
-30%
+135%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 3 ≈1 indep. | -23.79% | Too few | — | 33% | -27.58% |
-63%
+44%
|
Range of outcomes: all of WOLF's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 1 | -5.0%– vs -1.7% | — | — | — |
| Below its 200-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 4 | -5.0%L vs -0.1% | +8.6%L vs +4.1% | +90.7%– vs -12.2% | -23.8%– vs -23.8% |
| Below its 50-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 4 | -5.0%L vs -0.4% | +8.6%L vs +3.6% | +90.7%– vs -12.2% | -23.8%– vs -1.8% |
| Below its 20-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where WOLF stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Oct 2 @ $35.28 | RSI 70.6, +13.2% on the day | -5.0% | … | … | … |
| May 21, 2026 | May 21 @ $69.50 | RSI 76.2, +18.6% on the day | +0.6% | -14.7% | -29.6% | -62.9% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Apr 24 @ $31.23 | RSI 72.7, +13.4% on the day | -5.0% | +17.7% | +135.4% | -23.8% |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Apr 9 @ $24.43 | RSI 70.6, +18.8% on the day | -5.0% | +8.6% | +90.7% | +44.5% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.