WOLF
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- WOLF +2.60% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +2.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (Oct 8): After its 9 mention spikes in the past 5 years, WOLF was higher a day later 8 times out of 9; half the outcomes fell between +29.4% and +29.4%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices WOLF only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
26.21 +6.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
28.38 +15.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 25.22 · prior close 24.58 | |
| Bargain buy side |
23.05 -6.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
21.29 -13.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 22.57 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 26.77 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 23.05 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 26.21 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 23.50 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 25.71 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 20.32 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 29.74 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 21.29 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 28.38 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 22.24 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 27.17 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From WOLF's daily swings (about 6.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -8.4% | — | — | — |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among WOLF's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 26, 2026 |
73.50 +191.4% |
| 200-day average | 30.02 +19.0% |
| Highest analyst target | 30.00 +19.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 28.38 +12.5% |
| 50-day average | 28.16 +11.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 27.50 +9.0% |
| Now | 25.22 |
| Lowest analyst target | 25.00 -0.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
24.58 -2.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 21.29 -15.6% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
14.80 -41.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 1 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.