WPM
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- WPM +1.67% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: +1.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices WPM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
133.10 +2.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
137.58 +6.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 131.75 · prior close 129.58 | |
| Bargain buy side |
126.15 -2.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
122.04 -5.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 125.06 | 2 in 10 days | 134.26 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 126.15 | 3 in 10 days | 133.10 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 127.18 | 4 in 10 days | 132.02 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 119.69 | 2 in 10 weeks | 140.29 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 122.04 | 3 in 10 weeks | 137.58 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 124.28 | 4 in 10 weeks | 135.11 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From WPM's daily swings (about 2.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | -5.4% | -8.1% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -3.7% | +0.8% | -8.2% | — |
| Aug 26, 2026 | -4.7% | -3.3% | -8.4% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -2.9% | +23.5% | +14.8% | — |
| Jul 31, 2026 | -3.8% | +23.1% | +38.5% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -3.9% | +5.5% | +28.7% | +24.5% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -2.9% | -3.0% | +9.8% | +22.0% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | -2.6% | -7.5% | -10.3% | +23.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among WPM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Mar 2, 2026 |
164.99 +25.2% |
| 50-day average | 143.84 +9.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 137.58 +4.4% |
| 200-day average | 133.42 +1.3% |
| Now | 131.75 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
129.58 -1.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 122.04 -7.4% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
93.96 -28.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 21 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.