WRD
Moving with the market
- WRD +0.36% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: +0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 9): After its 12 big gains in the past 5 years, WRD was higher a day later 8 times out of 12; half the outcomes fell between -1.1% and +3.2%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices WRD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
4.38 +4.1% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
4.60 +9.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 4.22 · prior close 4.21 | |
| Bargain buy side |
4.05 -3.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
3.85 -8.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 3.99 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 4.44 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 4.05 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 4.38 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 4.09 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 4.33 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 3.74 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 4.74 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 3.85 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 4.60 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 3.96 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 4.48 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From WRD's daily swings (about 4.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -9.1% | — | — | — |
| Aug 24, 2026 | -7.4% | -3.5% | -2.0% | — |
| Aug 12, 2026 | -9.6% | +6.1% | +0.5% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -6.8% | +9.4% | +12.2% | — |
| Jun 4, 2026 | -8.9% | -13.2% | -25.1% | -18.8% |
| May 15, 2026 | -6.1% | +2.8% | -11.8% | -14.8% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | -9.0% | +10.1% | +12.4% | -17.9% |
| Jan 13, 2026 | -10.0% | +0.3% | -15.3% | -8.1% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | -4.9% | -2.7% | — | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -6.8% | +9.4% | +12.2% | — |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -5.7% | +3.4% | -5.9% | -6.6% |
| Mar 3, 2026 | -5.8% | +6.6% | +24.4% | +22.2% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among WRD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 18, 2025 |
40.40 +856.2% |
| Highest analyst target | 20.18 +377.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 13.41 +217.3% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 28, 2025 |
11.72 +177.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 10.52 +149.0% |
| 200-day average | 6.81 +61.2% |
| 50-day average | 5.61 +32.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 4.60 +9.0% |
| Now | 4.22 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
4.21 -0.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
4.21 -0.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 3.85 -8.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 2 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.