WSM
Moving with its group (XLY +1.5%)
- WSM +2.47% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) +1.5% (+1.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices WSM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
246.01 +1.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
250.44 +3.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 248.46 · prior close 242.48 | |
| Bargain buy side |
239.00 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
234.78 -3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 237.89 | 2 in 10 days | 247.16 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 239.00 | 3 in 10 days | 246.01 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 240.05 | 4 in 10 days | 244.93 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 232.33 | 2 in 10 weeks | 253.07 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 234.78 | 3 in 10 weeks | 250.44 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 237.08 | 4 in 10 weeks | 248.00 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From WSM's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among WSM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 280.00 +12.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 7, 2026 |
251.78 +1.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 250.44 +0.8% |
| Now | 248.46 |
| Mean analyst target | 246.35 -0.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
242.48 -2.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 234.78 -5.5% |
| 50-day average | 234.49 -5.6% |
| 200-day average | 210.45 -15.3% |
| 52-week closing low May 15, 2026 |
168.08 -32.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 151.00 -39.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 43 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.