WTW
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- WTW +4.67% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +4.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+4.7% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.8%): After its 67 big gains in the past 5 years, WTW was higher a month later 42 times out of 67; half the outcomes fell between -2.0% and +3.7%. History, not a forecast.
- 4 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 3 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Equal-Weight, raised target $303 → $332.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices WTW only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
300.98 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
305.85 +2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 310.95 · prior close 297.09 | |
| Bargain buy side |
293.25 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
288.58 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 292.02 | 2 in 10 days | 302.25 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 293.25 | 3 in 10 days | 300.98 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 294.41 | 4 in 10 days | 299.79 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 285.87 | 2 in 10 weeks | 308.75 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 288.58 | 3 in 10 weeks | 305.85 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 291.13 | 4 in 10 weeks | 303.17 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From WTW's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among WTW's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 455.00 +46.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 374.00 +20.3% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 24, 2026 |
349.58 +12.4% |
| 50-day average | 317.63 +2.1% |
| Now | 310.95 |
| Lowest analyst target | 310.00 -0.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 305.85 -1.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
297.09 -4.5% |
| 200-day average | 295.29 -5.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 288.58 -7.2% |
| 52-week closing low May 13, 2026 |
240.44 -22.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 25 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.