WYNN
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- WYNN +4.12% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +4.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+4.1% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.7%): After its 52 big gains in the past 5 years, WYNN was higher a day later 30 times out of 52; half the outcomes fell between -1.3% and +1.3%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Overweight, lowered target $136 → $128.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices WYNN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
74.92 +1.6% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
76.41 +3.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 76.76 · prior close 73.73 | |
| Bargain buy side |
72.56 -1.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
71.14 -3.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 72.19 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 75.31 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 72.56 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 74.92 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 72.91 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 74.56 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 70.32 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 77.30 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 71.14 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 76.41 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 71.92 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 75.59 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From WYNN's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | -2.8% | -2.1% | — | — |
| Sep 16, 2026 | -2.9% | -3.3% | — | — |
| Aug 27, 2026 | -3.7% | -2.2% | -14.0% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -2.6% | -1.5% | +7.9% | -22.4% |
| Jun 25, 2026 | -4.2% | -3.5% | +0.3% | -19.1% |
| May 8, 2026 | -4.1% | -6.8% | +5.2% | +0.3% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | -3.1% | -3.4% | +7.7% | +3.9% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | -3.6% | -1.2% | -1.2% | +3.1% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | -2.8% | -2.1% | — | — |
| Aug 27, 2026 | -3.7% | -2.2% | -14.0% | — |
| Jul 21, 2026 | -1.1% | +4.6% | +6.0% | — |
| Apr 3, 2025 | -10.6% | -0.8% | +13.9% | +49.5% |
| Jul 24, 2024 | -2.8% | +2.3% | -4.5% | +23.2% |
| Jun 13, 2022 | -7.5% | -5.7% | -5.8% | +8.8% |
| May 6, 2022 | -3.2% | 0.0% | +1.7% | -0.6% |
| Mar 7, 2022 | -11.3% | -7.2% | +9.7% | -7.3% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among WYNN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 4, 2014 |
205.60 +167.8% |
| Highest analyst target | 144.00 +87.6% |
| 52-week closing high Dec 2, 2025 |
132.13 +72.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 130.96 +70.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 116.00 +51.1% |
| 200-day average | 100.50 +30.9% |
| 50-day average | 88.49 +15.3% |
| Now | 76.76 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 76.41 -0.5% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
73.73 -4.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
73.73 -4.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 71.14 -7.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 24 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.