XAIR
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- XAIR +3.81% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +3.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices XAIR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
2.23 +6.2% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
2.40 +14.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 2.18 · prior close 2.10 | |
| Bargain buy side |
1.98 -5.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
1.83 -12.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 1.94 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 2.28 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 1.98 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 2.23 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 2.01 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 2.19 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 1.76 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 2.51 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 1.83 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 2.40 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 1.91 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 2.31 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From XAIR's daily swings (about 6.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | -5.9% | -8.3% | — | — |
| Aug 21, 2026 | -2.3% | -11.1% | -36.5% | — |
| Jul 14, 2026 | -23.0% | +2.3% | +4.9% | -60.0% |
| May 19, 2026 | -10.4% | -0.2% | -16.5% | -39.6% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | -6.8% | +2.9% | -29.4% | -28.3% |
| Dec 1, 2025 | -11.9% | -4.2% | -39.0% | -27.1% |
| Oct 22, 2025 | -17.7% | +2.5% | -38.5% | -19.0% |
| Jul 29, 2025 | -7.5% | -6.8% | -23.0% | -29.7% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among XAIR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 26, 2021 |
6,244.00 +286322.0% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2025 |
54.00 +2377.1% |
| 200-day average | 11.49 +427.2% |
| 50-day average | 3.81 +74.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 2.40 +10.3% |
| Now | 2.18 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
2.10 -3.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
2.10 -3.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 1.83 -15.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 8 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.