XHB
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- XHB +2.46% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +2.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.1× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices XHB only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
94.07 +1.3% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
95.62 +3.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 95.12 · prior close 92.84 | |
| Bargain buy side |
91.62 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
90.14 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 91.23 | 2 in 10 days | 94.48 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 91.62 | 3 in 10 days | 94.07 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 91.99 | 4 in 10 days | 93.70 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 89.28 | 2 in 10 weeks | 96.54 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 90.14 | 3 in 10 weeks | 95.62 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 90.95 | 4 in 10 weeks | 94.77 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From XHB's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -0.8% | — | — | — |
| Mar 13, 2025 | -2.5% | +3.4% | -4.2% | +1.7% |
| Jun 13, 2022 | -5.1% | -6.0% | +3.8% | +5.6% |
| May 10, 2022 | -1.4% | +3.4% | +2.3% | +8.0% |
| Mar 31, 2022 | -3.9% | -3.1% | -0.9% | -10.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among XHB's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 18, 2024 |
123.10 +29.4% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 13, 2026 |
120.15 +26.3% |
| 200-day average | 104.98 +10.4% |
| 50-day average | 100.58 +5.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 95.62 +0.5% |
| Now | 95.12 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
92.84 -2.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
92.84 -2.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 90.14 -5.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 21 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.