XOM
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices XOM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
190.01 +1.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% |
193.48 +3.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Last close | 187.25 | |
| Bargain buy side |
184.53 -1.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
181.22 -3.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 183.65 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 190.92 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 184.53 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 190.01 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 185.35 | 4 in 10 days | 189.17 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 179.30 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 195.55 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 181.22 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 193.48 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 183.03 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 191.57 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From XOM's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | +2.5% | +2.4% | — | — |
| Oct 8, 2026 | +2.7% | +3.7% | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | +2.2% | -0.6% | +2.6% | — |
| Aug 31, 2026 | +2.7% | -0.2% | +1.1% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | +2.5% | -3.0% | -1.4% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | +2.1% | +2.4% | +3.7% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | +2.4% | -3.3% | +0.4% | +15.5% |
| Jul 21, 2026 | +2.3% | +0.9% | +9.3% | +18.3% |
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | +2.5% | +2.4% | — | — |
| Sep 15, 2026 | +2.6% | -6.3% | +4.5% | — |
| Mar 13, 2026 | +1.7% | +2.3% | -4.4% | -5.2% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | +0.6% | +5.4% | +8.1% | +8.7% |
| Dec 29, 2025 | +1.2% | +0.4% | +16.6% | +41.7% |
| Nov 11, 2025 | +1.3% | +0.2% | +0.7% | +27.1% |
| Oct 2, 2024 | +1.3% | +0.5% | -3.9% | -11.0% |
| Apr 2, 2024 | +2.0% | +1.6% | -2.7% | -3.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among XOM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 206.00 +10.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 193.48 +3.3% |
| Last close Oct 30, 2026 |
187.25 |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 30, 2026 |
187.25 0.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 181.22 -3.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 179.71 -4.0% |
| 50-day average | 167.76 -10.4% |
| 200-day average | 153.39 -18.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 142.00 -24.2% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 5, 2025 |
110.48 -41.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 65 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.