XYZ
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- XYZ +3.88% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +3.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Not a group move: its brokers & fintech peers -0.1% (-0.2 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.9% today so far, past its big-gain line of +3.2%): After its 48 big gains in the past 5 years, XYZ was higher a day later 28 times out of 48; half the outcomes fell between -1.1% and +2.1%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices XYZ only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
77.25 +1.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
79.03 +4.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 78.79 · prior close 75.85 | |
| Bargain buy side |
74.47 -1.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
72.80 -4.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 74.03 | 2 in 10 days | 77.72 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 74.47 | 3 in 10 days | 77.25 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 74.89 | 4 in 10 days | 76.83 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 71.84 | 2 in 10 weeks | 80.09 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 72.80 | 3 in 10 weeks | 79.03 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 73.71 | 4 in 10 weeks | 78.05 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From XYZ's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among XYZ's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Aug 5, 2021 |
281.81 +257.6% |
| Highest analyst target | 125.00 +58.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 98.39 +24.9% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 27, 2026 |
84.85 +7.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 79.03 +0.3% |
| Now | 78.79 |
| 50-day average | 78.69 -0.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
75.85 -3.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 75.00 -4.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 72.80 -7.6% |
| 200-day average | 70.65 -10.3% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 12, 2026 |
49.09 -37.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 11 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.