YUM
Moving with its group (XLY +1.5%)
- YUM +2.60% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +2.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) +1.5% (+1.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.6% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.7%): After its 61 big gains in the past 5 years, YUM was higher a month later 35 times out of 61; half the outcomes fell between -3.7% and +3.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: TD Cowen maintained Buy, lowered target $180 → $177.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices YUM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
148.80 +1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
151.45 +3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 150.51 · prior close 146.69 | |
| Bargain buy side |
144.61 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
142.08 -3.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 143.94 | 2 in 10 days | 149.49 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 144.61 | 3 in 10 days | 148.80 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 145.24 | 4 in 10 days | 148.16 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 140.61 | 2 in 10 weeks | 153.03 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 142.08 | 3 in 10 weeks | 151.45 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 143.46 | 4 in 10 weeks | 150.00 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From YUM's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among YUM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 200.00 +32.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 171.06 +13.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 7, 2026 |
166.65 +10.7% |
| 200-day average | 152.36 +1.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 151.45 +0.6% |
| Now | 150.51 |
| Lowest analyst target | 147.00 -2.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
146.69 -2.5% |
| 50-day average | 145.08 -3.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 142.08 -5.6% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 31, 2025 |
135.58 -9.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 29 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.