Aftermath
After crossing above the 200-day average, over the next day
The close moves above its 200-day moving average. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.04% over the next day after crossing above the 200-day average (half of them between -0.32% and +0.47%), against +0.06% on any day.
Latest crosses above the 200-day average, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 day | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | CIEN Ciena | +3.2% on the day | +0.33% | Medium | #166 of 497 | 54% | 13 |
| Oct 2 | EL Estée Lauder Companies … | +2.0% on the day | +0.35% | Medium | #181 of 497 | 62% | 8 |
| Oct 2 | FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | +0.9% on the day | -0.04% | Low | #301 of 497 | 50% | 6 |
| Oct 2 | MNST Monster Beverage | +1.9% on the day | +0.26% | Medium | #127 of 497 | 62% | 8 |
| Oct 2 | ON ON Semiconductor | +6.0% on the day | -1.45% | Medium | #485 of 497 | 25% | 12 |
| Oct 2 | RL Ralph Lauren Corporation | +0.2% on the day | -0.01% | Medium | #254 of 497 | 50% | 8 |
| Oct 2 | WMB Williams Companies | +1.9% on the day | +0.96% | Low | #80 of 497 | 71% | 7 |
| Oct 1 | ACN Accenture | +15.8% on the day | +0.31% | Medium | #120 of 497 | 70% | 10 |
| Oct 1 | ALL Allstate | +1.1% on the day | +0.39% | Medium | #155 of 497 | 50% | 12 |
| Oct 1 | CB Chubb Limited | +1.9% on the day | -0.31% | Medium | #396 of 497 | 38% | 13 |
| Oct 1 | CDW CDW Corporation | +6.0% on the day | -0.15% | Medium | #427 of 497 | 31% | 13 |
| Oct 1 | CTSH Cognizant | +6.0% on the day | -0.24% | Medium | #380 of 497 | 45% | 11 |
| Oct 1 | NSC Norfolk Southern | +0.4% on the day | +0.43% | Medium | #85 of 497 | 67% | 12 |
| Oct 1 | PTC PTC Inc. | +4.4% on the day | -1.16% | Medium | #470 of 497 | 12% | 8 |
| Oct 1 | SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | +0.6% on the day | -1.58% | Medium | #455 of 497 | 36% | 11 |
| Oct 1 | SNPS Synopsys | +12.8% on the day | -0.12% | Medium | #272 of 497 | 43% | 14 |
| Oct 1 | WRB W. R. Berkley … | +2.0% on the day | -0.42% | Medium | #416 of 497 | 38% | 8 |
| Sep 29 | GNRC Generac | +3.4% on the day | +0.91% | Medium | #118 of 497 | 60% | 10 |
| Sep 28 | FOX Fox Corporation (Class … | +0.0% on the day | -0.60% | Medium | #445 of 497 | 40% | 10 |
| Sep 28 | HAS Hasbro | +1.5% on the day | -1.10% | Medium | #393 of 497 | 25% | 8 |
| Sep 28 | PGR Progressive Corporation | +1.9% on the day | +0.50% | Low | #119 of 497 | 57% | 7 |
| Sep 28 | RJF Raymond James Financial | +0.8% on the day | +0.22% | Medium | #105 of 497 | 62% | 13 |
| Sep 28 | ZBH Zimmer Biomet | +0.6% on the day | -0.68% | Medium | #476 of 497 | 31% | 13 |
Best after crossing above the 200-day average
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNH UnitedHealth Group | +0.63%+0.5 to +0.7 | Medium | +0.51% | 77% | +0.31% | -3% · +5% | 13 |
| 2 | MSI Motorola Solutions | +0.72%+0.1 to +0.9 | Medium | +0.83% | 88% | +0.25% | -1% · +4% | 8 |
| 3 | ITW Illinois Tool Works | +0.39%+0.1 to +0.5 | Medium | +0.44% | 72% | +0.05% | -2% · +3% | 18 |
| 4 | TSCO Tractor Supply | +1.31%+0.4 to +1.6 | Medium | +1.13% | 92% | +1.12% | -1% · +3% | 12 |
| 5 | GDDY GoDaddy | +0.51%+0.3 to +0.8 | Medium | +0.29% | 79% | +0.47% | -4% · +3% | 14 |
| 6 | BLK BlackRock | +0.69%+0.2 to +1.0 | Medium | +0.73% | 77% | +0.28% | -1% · +3% | 13 |
| 7 | PM Philip Morris International | +0.53%-0.1 to +0.6 | Medium | +0.47% | 60% | +0.12% | -2% · +3% | 15 |
| 8 | PODD Insulet Corporation | +1.02%+0.3 to +1.1 | Low | +1.24% | 100% | +0.60% | 0% · +3% | 6 |
| 9 | BAC Bank of America | +0.62%+0.5 to +1.4 | Medium | +0.85% | 80% | +0.98% | -1% · +2% | 10 |
| 10 | VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | +1.16%+0.6 to +1.9 | Medium | +1.12% | 78% | -0.05% | -1% · +3% | 9 |
| 11 | BRO Brown & Brown | +0.67%0.0 to +0.9 | Low | +0.68% | 83% | -0.27% | 0% · +2% | 6 |
| 12 | FTV Fortive | +0.51%+0.1 to +0.8 | Medium | +0.32% | 69% | +0.01% | -2% · +2% | 13 |
| 13 | MO Altria | +0.92%+0.2 to +1.3 | Medium | +1.12% | 67% | +1.00% | -1% · +6% | 9 |
| 14 | VRT Vertiv | +4.31%+2.6 to +4.5 | Low | +3.72% | 100% | +3.09% | +1% · +7% | 5 |
| 15 | A Agilent Technologies | +0.52%-0.1 to +0.7 | Medium | +0.04% | 62% | +0.09% | -3% · +2% | 13 |
| 16 | AXON Axon Enterprise | +1.88%+1.8 to +3.5 | Low | +2.14% | 86% | +1.80% | -1% · +6% | 7 |
| 17 | CVX Chevron Corporation | +0.73%+0.2 to +1.3 | Medium | +0.67% | 73% | +0.79% | -2% · +4% | 11 |
| 18 | PANW Palo Alto Networks | +0.76%+0.3 to +1.3 | Medium | +0.51% | 69% | +0.86% | -5% · +6% | 13 |
| 19 | ETN Eaton Corporation | +1.50%0.0 to +2.3 | Medium | +1.69% | 67% | +1.01% | -2% · +7% | 9 |
| 20 | NDSN Nordson Corporation | +0.58%-0.2 to +0.7 | Medium | +0.80% | 60% | +0.33% | -1% · +4% | 10 |
| 21 | LII Lennox International | +1.37%-0.2 to +1.8 | Medium | +0.99% | 70% | +1.07% | -2% · +3% | 10 |
| 22 | CCI Crown Castle | +0.75%+0.2 to +1.5 | Medium | +0.96% | 73% | +0.55% | -1% · +4% | 11 |
| 23 | ETR Entergy | +0.23%0.0 to +0.4 | Low | +0.13% | 60% | -0.03% | 0% · 0% | 5 |
| 24 | FDS FactSet | +0.35%+0.2 to +0.8 | Medium | +0.14% | 69% | +0.01% | -6% · +2% | 13 |
| 25 | PPL PPL Corporation | +0.42%-0.1 to +0.6 | Medium | +0.31% | 64% | -0.16% | -2% · +3% | 11 |
Worst after crossing above the 200-day average
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LH Labcorp | -0.59%-0.9 to -0.3 | Medium | -0.98% | 13% | -0.35% | -5% · +1% | 15 |
| 2 | NI NiSource | -0.76%-0.9 to -0.3 | Medium | -0.53% | 22% | -0.86% | -1% · +1% | 9 |
| 3 | CSX CSX Corporation | -0.41%-0.7 to -0.2 | Medium | -0.66% | 36% | -0.27% | -4% · +1% | 14 |
| 4 | REG Regency Centers | -0.38%-0.7 to -0.3 | Medium | -0.42% | 24% | -0.33% | -2% · +2% | 17 |
| 5 | NTAP NetApp | -0.57%-1.1 to -0.3 | Medium | -0.45% | 20% | -0.92% | -2% · +2% | 10 |
| 6 | INVH Invitation Homes | -0.45%-0.7 to -0.2 | Medium | -0.26% | 36% | -0.09% | -2% · +1% | 14 |
| 7 | PG Procter & Gamble | -0.43%-1.0 to -0.2 | Medium | -0.36% | 29% | -0.49% | -3% · +2% | 17 |
| 8 | BF-B Brown–Forman | -0.77%-1.1 to -0.3 | Medium | -0.20% | 20% | -0.80% | -3% · +5% | 10 |
| 9 | GME meme | -0.91%-1.0 to -0.8 | Medium | -0.66% | 11% | -1.06% | -4% · +6% | 9 |
| 10 | BA Boeing | -0.71%-1.1 to -0.1 | Medium | -0.36% | 25% | -0.65% | -3% · +3% | 12 |
| 11 | CPT Camden Property Trust | -0.42%-0.6 to 0.0 | Medium | -0.35% | 46% | -0.65% | -3% · +2% | 13 |
| 12 | EXPD Expeditors International | -0.62%-0.8 to 0.0 | Medium | 0.00% | 31% | -0.37% | -2% · +5% | 13 |
| 13 | EXC Exelon | -0.41%-0.5 to +0.1 | Medium | -0.48% | 40% | -0.35% | -8% · +2% | 15 |
| 14 | ON ON Semiconductor | -1.45%-2.4 to -0.6 | Medium | -0.73% | 25% | -1.19% | -6% · +9% | 12 |
| 15 | WFC Wells Fargo | -0.64%-1.1 to -0.2 | Medium | -0.66% | 33% | -0.05% | -5% · +2% | 12 |
| 16 | JBHT J.B. Hunt | -1.16%-1.4 to -0.1 | Medium | -0.88% | 27% | -1.03% | -4% · +3% | 11 |
| 17 | STE Steris | -0.41%-0.5 to -0.1 | Medium | -0.34% | 33% | -0.40% | -3% · +2% | 15 |
| 18 | CHD Church & Dwight | -0.45%-0.8 to -0.2 | Medium | -0.98% | 33% | -0.19% | -9% · +2% | 12 |
| 19 | GEHC GE HealthCare | -0.92%-1.3 to -0.3 | Medium | -0.83% | 25% | -0.46% | -3% · +1% | 8 |
| 20 | DHR Danaher Corporation | -0.52%-0.8 to -0.4 | Medium | -0.27% | 36% | -0.35% | -2% · +2% | 14 |
| 21 | AFL Aflac | -0.37%-0.6 to +0.5 | Medium | -0.03% | 38% | -0.15% | -2% · +2% | 8 |
| 22 | SBAC SBA Communications | -0.88%-1.2 to 0.0 | Medium | -0.55% | 36% | -0.58% | -3% · +4% | 11 |
| 23 | ZBH Zimmer Biomet | -0.68%-1.1 to -0.3 | Medium | -0.41% | 31% | -0.57% | -2% · +2% | 13 |
| 24 | ZBRA Zebra Technologies | -1.03%-1.6 to -0.7 | Medium | -0.60% | 30% | -1.11% | -5% · +4% | 10 |
| 25 | MSCI MSCI | -0.44%-1.0 to 0.0 | Medium | -0.58% | 35% | -0.50% | -4% · +4% | 17 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next day from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.