Aftermath
After crossing above the 200-day average, over the next week
The close moves above its 200-day moving average. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.32% over the next week after crossing above the 200-day average (half of them between -0.70% and +1.24%), against +0.27% on any day.
Latest crosses above the 200-day average, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 week | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | CIEN Ciena | +3.2% on the day | +1.12% | Medium | #119 of 497 | 54% | 13 |
| Oct 2 | EL Estée Lauder Companies … | +2.0% on the day | +0.33% | Medium | #248 of 497 | 50% | 8 |
| Oct 2 | FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | +0.9% on the day | -0.41% | Low | #345 of 497 | 33% | 6 |
| Oct 2 | MNST Monster Beverage | +1.9% on the day | -0.06% | Medium | #427 of 497 | 38% | 8 |
| Oct 2 | ON ON Semiconductor | +6.0% on the day | -2.29% | Medium | #481 of 497 | 25% | 12 |
| Oct 2 | RL Ralph Lauren Corporation | +0.2% on the day | +0.05% | Medium | #268 of 497 | 50% | 8 |
| Oct 2 | WMB Williams Companies | +1.9% on the day | +2.10% | Low | #12 of 497 | 71% | 7 |
| Oct 1 | ACN Accenture | +15.8% on the day | +0.62% | Medium | #156 of 497 | 89% | 9 |
| Oct 1 | ALL Allstate | +1.1% on the day | +1.98% | Medium | #9 of 497 | 73% | 11 |
| Oct 1 | CB Chubb Limited | +1.9% on the day | 0.00% | Medium | #346 of 497 | 50% | 12 |
| Oct 1 | CDW CDW Corporation | +6.0% on the day | -0.63% | Medium | #491 of 497 | 33% | 12 |
| Oct 1 | CTSH Cognizant | +6.0% on the day | +0.69% | Medium | #140 of 497 | 60% | 10 |
| Oct 1 | NSC Norfolk Southern | +0.4% on the day | -0.32% | Medium | #441 of 497 | 45% | 11 |
| Oct 1 | PTC PTC Inc. | +4.4% on the day | +0.36% | Low | #235 of 497 | 57% | 7 |
| Oct 1 | SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | +0.6% on the day | -2.74% | Medium | #454 of 497 | 20% | 10 |
| Oct 1 | SNPS Synopsys | +12.8% on the day | -2.36% | Medium | #366 of 497 | 38% | 13 |
| Oct 1 | WRB W. R. Berkley … | +2.0% on the day | +0.50% | Low | #190 of 497 | 71% | 7 |
| Sep 29 | GNRC Generac | +3.4% on the day | +5.28% | Medium | #10 of 497 | 78% | 9 |
| Sep 28 | FOX Fox Corporation (Class … | +0.0% on the day | +2.35% | Medium | #57 of 497 | 67% | 9 |
| Sep 28 | HAS Hasbro | +1.5% on the day | -2.49% | Low | #367 of 497 | 43% | 7 |
| Sep 28 | PGR Progressive Corporation | +1.9% on the day | -1.34% | Low | #392 of 497 | 17% | 6 |
| Sep 28 | RJF Raymond James Financial | +0.8% on the day | +0.14% | Medium | #266 of 497 | 50% | 12 |
| Sep 28 | ZBH Zimmer Biomet | +0.6% on the day | +0.46% | Medium | #223 of 497 | 58% | 12 |
Best after crossing above the 200-day average
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise | +3.92%+3.2 to +4.5 | Medium | +3.67% | 92% | +2.26% | -1% · +8% | 12 |
| 2 | AOS A. O. Smith | +2.13%+1.4 to +3.2 | Medium | +2.50% | 100% | +1.80% | 0% · +6% | 9 |
| 3 | SO Southern Company | +1.56%+1.0 to +1.8 | Medium | +1.05% | 79% | +1.48% | -5% · +6% | 14 |
| 4 | IEX IDEX Corporation | +2.13%+1.5 to +2.6 | Medium | +1.53% | 73% | +0.36% | -5% · +7% | 11 |
| 5 | IT Gartner | +1.67%+1.3 to +2.9 | Medium | +3.43% | 90% | +1.18% | -1% · +19% | 10 |
| 6 | TECH Bio-Techne | +1.72%+0.9 to +2.1 | Medium | +2.31% | 80% | +0.34% | -6% · +23% | 15 |
| 7 | CARR Carrier Global | +4.19%+1.8 to +4.5 | Medium | +3.53% | 82% | +1.07% | -3% · +12% | 11 |
| 8 | NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | +2.14%+1.9 to +2.8 | Medium | +1.17% | 88% | +0.60% | -9% · +5% | 8 |
| 9 | ALL Allstate | +1.98%+0.6 to +2.4 | Medium | +1.39% | 73% | +4.77% | -8% · +7% | 11 |
| 10 | GNRC Generac | +5.28%+2.6 to +6.5 | Medium | +4.13% | 78% | +4.78% | -2% · +11% | 9 |
| 11 | TDG TransDigm Group | +1.46%+0.2 to +2.4 | Medium | +1.02% | 73% | +0.58% | -6% · +4% | 11 |
| 12 | WMB Williams Companies | +2.10%+0.5 to +2.7 | Low | +1.11% | 71% | +1.03% | -2% · +3% | 7 |
| 13 | RF Regions Financial Corporation | +2.76%+1.0 to +3.9 | Low | +2.89% | 86% | +1.20% | -2% · +10% | 7 |
| 14 | APO Apollo Global Management | +2.10%+1.6 to +3.5 | Medium | +2.07% | 77% | +0.31% | -8% · +11% | 13 |
| 15 | OTIS Otis Worldwide | +0.97%+0.4 to +1.6 | Medium | +1.33% | 78% | +0.98% | -1% · +5% | 9 |
| 16 | MDLZ Mondelez International | +1.24%-0.2 to +1.4 | Medium | +0.35% | 60% | +0.23% | -5% · +4% | 15 |
| 17 | BKNG Booking Holdings | +3.17%+1.2 to +4.3 | Low | +2.39% | 86% | +1.60% | -5% · +7% | 7 |
| 18 | ROL Rollins, Inc. | +0.99%+0.1 to +1.5 | Medium | +1.34% | 88% | -0.07% | -2% · +6% | 8 |
| 19 | TRV Travelers Companies (The) | +0.97%+0.1 to +1.8 | Medium | +1.26% | 88% | -1.45% | -1% · +3% | 8 |
| 20 | ABBV AbbVie | +1.12%+0.4 to +1.4 | Medium | +1.51% | 80% | +0.94% | -3% · +7% | 15 |
| 21 | FDX FedEx | +2.04%+0.9 to +3.6 | Medium | +2.19% | 82% | +0.33% | -12% · +19% | 11 |
| 22 | EXPE Expedia Group | +4.11%+0.7 to +4.9 | Medium | +2.86% | 77% | +1.06% | -6% · +8% | 13 |
| 23 | CHTR Charter Communications | +1.70%+1.3 to +3.0 | Low | +1.88% | 86% | +1.81% | -4% · +7% | 7 |
| 24 | PLD Prologis | +1.34%-0.2 to +2.5 | Medium | +1.26% | 67% | +0.22% | -2% · +6% | 9 |
| 25 | HIG Hartford (The) | +1.26%-0.2 to +1.8 | Medium | +0.81% | 64% | +0.47% | -4% · +4% | 14 |
Worst after crossing above the 200-day average
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CPT Camden Property Trust | -1.17%-1.4 to -0.8 | Medium | -1.08% | 15% | -1.86% | -4% · +2% | 13 |
| 2 | BDX Becton Dickinson | -1.24%-1.7 to -0.9 | Medium | -1.50% | 29% | -1.24% | -9% · +3% | 14 |
| 3 | KDP Keurig Dr Pepper | -1.53%-2.5 to -1.4 | Medium | -1.74% | 20% | -1.46% | -6% · +3% | 15 |
| 4 | VLTO Veralto | -1.88%-2.1 to -1.7 | Low | -1.26% | 17% | -1.46% | -3% · +1% | 6 |
| 5 | PSKY Paramount Skydance Corporation | -3.13%-4.0 to -1.7 | Medium | -0.28% | 18% | -2.84% | -7% · +22% | 11 |
| 6 | IDXX Idexx Laboratories | -1.17%-1.6 to -0.9 | Medium | -1.19% | 12% | -2.08% | -6% · +4% | 8 |
| 7 | CDW CDW Corporation | -0.63%-1.4 to -0.3 | Medium | -0.37% | 33% | -0.78% | -4% · +8% | 12 |
| 8 | BMY Bristol Myers Squibb | -2.78%-3.3 to -0.6 | Low | -1.83% | 17% | -0.83% | -3% · +2% | 6 |
| 9 | TLT meme | -0.23%-0.4 to +0.1 | Medium | -0.03% | 37% | -0.36% | -3% · +4% | 19 |
| 10 | REG Regency Centers | -0.83%-0.9 to +0.2 | Medium | -0.32% | 35% | -1.03% | -3% · +4% | 17 |
| 11 | NI NiSource | -2.26%-3.1 to -0.9 | Medium | -1.66% | 22% | -1.55% | -7% · +4% | 9 |
| 12 | HSIC Henry Schein | -1.23%-2.1 to -0.9 | High | -1.19% | 35% | -1.38% | -7% · +2% | 20 |
| 13 | O Realty Income | -1.05%-1.6 to +0.1 | Medium | -0.74% | 36% | -1.13% | -4% · +3% | 11 |
| 14 | ABT Abbott Laboratories | -1.37%-2.1 to -0.4 | Medium | -1.14% | 33% | -1.82% | -7% · +3% | 12 |
| 15 | CL Colgate-Palmolive | -1.66%-1.9 to -0.1 | Medium | -1.09% | 23% | -3.77% | -7% · +4% | 13 |
| 16 | EXC Exelon | -1.44%-1.9 to -0.5 | Medium | -1.99% | 33% | -1.22% | -15% · +4% | 15 |
| 17 | VICI Vici Properties | -0.79%-1.6 to -0.4 | Medium | -0.41% | 36% | -1.40% | -3% · +4% | 14 |
| 18 | ON ON Semiconductor | -2.29%-3.8 to -1.5 | Medium | -0.34% | 25% | -3.00% | -8% · +13% | 12 |
| 19 | AMCR Amcor | -1.57%-2.3 to +0.1 | Medium | -1.67% | 38% | -1.82% | -9% · +3% | 13 |
| 20 | KMI Kinder Morgan | -0.70%-1.2 to +0.7 | Medium | -0.32% | 40% | -0.46% | -5% · +5% | 15 |
| 21 | BKR Baker Hughes | -1.41%-2.4 to -1.2 | Medium | -0.78% | 20% | -1.75% | -5% · +7% | 10 |
| 22 | BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | -0.55%-0.9 to +0.5 | Medium | -0.01% | 45% | -0.34% | -2% · +4% | 11 |
| 23 | GEHC GE HealthCare | -0.65%-2.2 to -0.3 | Medium | -0.46% | 25% | -1.88% | -3% · +3% | 8 |
| 24 | IBKR Interactive Brokers | -4.92%-6.1 to -1.0 | Low | -3.34% | 17% | -2.16% | -8% · +4% | 6 |
| 25 | KHC Kraft Heinz | -1.53%-1.8 to +0.5 | Medium | -1.39% | 36% | -1.54% | -7% · +2% | 11 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next week from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.