Aftermath
After an earnings beat, over the next day
EPS above the consensus; entry at the close of the session that first traded on it. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.06% over the next day after an earnings beat (half of them between -0.39% and +0.50%), against +0.06% on any day.
Latest earnings beats, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 day | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | NKE Nike, Inc. | 1Q2027 · EPS +$0.04 (+9.9%) vs consensus · -3.6% reaction | -0.09% | Medium | #379 of 497 | 39% | 18 |
| Oct 1 | ACN Accenture | 4Q2026 · EPS +$0.11 (+3.4%) vs consensus · +15.8% reaction | -1.09% | Medium | #452 of 497 | 35% | 17 |
| Oct 1 | MKC McCormick & Company | 3Q2026 · EPS +$0.10 (+13.8%) vs consensus · -4.9% reaction | +0.29% | Medium | #66 of 497 | 73% | 15 |
| Oct 1 | MU Micron Technology | 4Q2026 · EPS +$1.60 (+5.0%) vs consensus · +3.0% reaction | -0.45% | Medium | #326 of 497 | 44% | 18 |
| Sep 30 | FDS FactSet | 4Q2026 · EPS +$0.17 (+4.0%) vs consensus · +3.8% reaction | +0.55% | Medium | #92 of 497 | 67% | 15 |
| Sep 30 | JBL Jabil | 4Q2026 · EPS +$0.32 (+8.0%) vs consensus · -10.0% reaction | +1.11% | Medium | #1 of 497 | 79% | 19 |
| Sep 29 | CCL Carnival Corporation | 3Q2026 · EPS +$0.08 (+5.9%) vs consensus · +13.4% reaction | -0.90% | Medium | #407 of 497 | 38% | 16 |
Best after an earnings beat
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JBL Jabil | +1.11%+0.8 to +1.6 | Medium | +1.07% | 79% | +1.39% | -3% · +5% | 19 |
| 2 | WFC Wells Fargo | +1.73%+0.9 to +1.8 | Medium | +1.49% | 78% | +1.05% | -2% · +7% | 18 |
| 3 | O Realty Income | +1.32%+0.9 to +1.7 | Low | +1.44% | 100% | +0.56% | +1% · +2% | 4 |
| 4 | ALB Albemarle Corporation | +2.23%+1.3 to +2.5 | Medium | +1.29% | 80% | +1.49% | -10% · +6% | 15 |
| 5 | PEP PepsiCo | +1.36%+0.4 to +1.5 | Medium | +1.17% | 78% | +0.87% | -2% · +4% | 18 |
| 6 | STE Steris | +1.71%+1.4 to +1.9 | Medium | +0.92% | 67% | +1.24% | -3% · +3% | 15 |
| 7 | CTSH Cognizant | +0.69%+0.2 to +0.9 | Medium | +0.48% | 72% | +0.29% | -3% · +4% | 18 |
| 8 | ROK Rockwell Automation | +1.41%+0.6 to +2.0 | Medium | +1.58% | 81% | +1.17% | -1% · +5% | 16 |
| 9 | PM Philip Morris International | +1.22%+0.3 to +1.4 | Medium | +0.94% | 67% | +0.90% | -2% · +3% | 18 |
| 10 | SYF Synchrony Financial | +1.02%+0.3 to +1.4 | Medium | +0.80% | 75% | +0.77% | -3% · +4% | 16 |
| 11 | STZ Constellation Brands | +0.69%0.0 to +1.0 | Medium | +0.40% | 69% | +0.15% | -4% · +4% | 16 |
| 12 | RF Regions Financial Corporation | +1.08%+0.5 to +1.4 | Medium | +0.83% | 77% | +0.50% | -2% · +3% | 13 |
| 13 | ABBV AbbVie | +1.18%+0.7 to +1.5 | Medium | +0.82% | 75% | +0.89% | -3% · +3% | 16 |
| 14 | NSC Norfolk Southern | +0.39%+0.2 to +0.6 | Medium | +0.61% | 79% | +0.07% | -1% · +2% | 14 |
| 15 | SLB Schlumberger | +0.84%+0.7 to +1.1 | Medium | +0.32% | 71% | +0.61% | -7% · +3% | 17 |
| 16 | CTAS Cintas | +0.46%+0.2 to +0.9 | Medium | +0.81% | 74% | +0.61% | -3% · +7% | 19 |
| 17 | HCA HCA Healthcare | +1.54%+1.1 to +1.9 | Medium | +1.41% | 73% | +1.89% | -4% · +7% | 15 |
| 18 | WAB Wabtec | +0.96%-0.1 to +1.3 | Medium | +0.66% | 67% | +0.97% | -4% · +4% | 18 |
| 19 | ISRG Intuitive Surgical | +0.91%-0.4 to +1.1 | Medium | +0.59% | 67% | +0.45% | -4% · +5% | 18 |
| 20 | TER Teradyne | +0.98%+0.6 to +1.5 | High | +2.25% | 65% | +0.41% | -5% · +14% | 20 |
| 21 | VRSK Verisk Analytics | +0.72%-0.1 to +0.9 | Medium | +0.40% | 59% | +1.03% | -6% · +5% | 17 |
| 22 | CME CME Group | +0.43%0.0 to +0.5 | Medium | +0.16% | 61% | +0.29% | -2% · +2% | 18 |
| 23 | GEN Gen Digital | +1.05%+0.3 to +1.4 | Medium | +1.04% | 77% | +0.96% | -1% · +4% | 13 |
| 24 | NI NiSource | +0.74%-0.2 to +0.9 | Medium | +0.30% | 67% | -0.18% | -2% · +1% | 12 |
| 25 | HRL Hormel Foods | +1.12%+0.6 to +1.4 | Medium | +0.61% | 75% | +0.83% | -6% · +4% | 12 |
Worst after an earnings beat
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TJX TJX Companies | -0.99%-1.1 to -0.6 | Medium | -0.53% | 28% | -0.53% | -3% · +2% | 18 |
| 2 | RJF Raymond James Financial | -1.02%-1.3 to -0.6 | Medium | 0.00% | 33% | -0.76% | -2% · +5% | 12 |
| 3 | EVRG Evergy | -0.45%-0.7 to -0.3 | Medium | -0.41% | 21% | -0.53% | -2% · +2% | 14 |
| 4 | BRO Brown & Brown | -1.13%-1.8 to -1.0 | Medium | -0.92% | 24% | -1.15% | -3% · +2% | 17 |
| 5 | NEE NextEra Energy | -1.17%-1.9 to -0.2 | Medium | -1.13% | 26% | -1.21% | -5% · +2% | 19 |
| 6 | FCX Freeport-McMoRan | -1.26%-1.8 to -0.7 | Medium | -1.47% | 18% | -1.47% | -7% · +3% | 17 |
| 7 | ADI Analog Devices | -0.58%-0.9 to 0.0 | Medium | -0.72% | 33% | -0.21% | -5% · +2% | 18 |
| 8 | HSY Hershey Company (The) | -0.81%-1.2 to -0.1 | Medium | -0.55% | 33% | -1.04% | -3% · +3% | 18 |
| 9 | VEEV Veeva Systems | -1.39%-1.9 to -0.3 | High | -0.85% | 25% | -0.76% | -5% · +5% | 20 |
| 10 | NUE Nucor | -1.60%-2.3 to -1.2 | Medium | -1.76% | 31% | -1.37% | -8% · +3% | 16 |
| 11 | BG Bunge Global | -0.90%-1.6 to -0.6 | Medium | -0.87% | 24% | -0.39% | -3% · +3% | 17 |
| 12 | IBM IBM | -0.50%-1.0 to -0.1 | Medium | +0.02% | 29% | -0.58% | -2% · +8% | 17 |
| 13 | AIZ Assurant | -0.57%-1.3 to -0.2 | Medium | -0.89% | 33% | -0.69% | -6% · +2% | 18 |
| 14 | MCHP Microchip Technology | -1.11%-1.7 to -0.6 | Medium | -0.32% | 33% | -0.48% | -5% · +10% | 18 |
| 15 | F Ford Motor Company | -1.59%-2.0 to -0.4 | Medium | -0.92% | 29% | -0.59% | -4% · +5% | 14 |
| 16 | FANG Diamondback Energy | -1.68%-1.8 to -1.3 | Medium | -1.16% | 33% | -1.87% | -5% · +5% | 15 |
| 17 | SYY Sysco | -0.60%-1.3 to -0.5 | Medium | -0.46% | 33% | -0.60% | -2% · +2% | 12 |
| 18 | ADP Automatic Data Processing | -0.48%-1.0 to +0.1 | High | -0.33% | 40% | -0.22% | -3% · +3% | 20 |
| 19 | TSM meme | -1.56%-2.1 to -0.6 | High | -1.10% | 35% | -0.62% | -4% · +2% | 20 |
| 20 | YUM Yum! Brands | -0.26%-0.7 to -0.1 | Medium | -0.25% | 20% | -0.05% | -2% · +2% | 10 |
| 21 | GE GE Aerospace | -2.02%-2.1 to 0.0 | Medium | -1.26% | 32% | -1.73% | -6% · +3% | 19 |
| 22 | ATO Atmos Energy | -0.44%-1.0 to -0.1 | Medium | -0.48% | 38% | -1.12% | -3% · +1% | 16 |
| 23 | SNPS Synopsys | -1.04%-1.6 to +0.2 | Medium | -1.09% | 37% | -1.00% | -5% · +2% | 19 |
| 24 | TSN Tyson Foods | -0.52%-0.8 to -0.4 | Medium | +0.02% | 36% | -0.84% | -4% · +5% | 14 |
| 25 | ILMN Illumina, Inc. | -2.06%-3.1 to -1.5 | Medium | -1.48% | 27% | -2.55% | -11% · +8% | 15 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next day from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.