TSM
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TSM +2.96% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +2.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (Oct 2): After its 24 overbought readings in the past 5 years, TSM typically gained 2.3% over the next month (median) and was higher 62% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.8% and +9.9%. An ordinary month: +2.6%. Among S&P 500 stocks after overbought readings, that ranks #120 of 501.
- 2 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 87% positive over the week.
- 30 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 30 insider open-market buys.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | 0.0%#281 H | +0.6%#58 H | +2.6%#41 H | +10.1%#15 M |
| Big drop (-2.8% or worse) | 59 | -0.1%#368 H | +0.6%#221 H | +4.2%#53 H | +13.6%#23 M |
| Big gain (+3.3% or better) | 69 | 0.0%#363 H | +0.2%#290 H | +4.0%#41 H | +12.2%#56 M |
| Earnings beat | 20 | -1.6%#480 H | -0.1%#272 H | +4.7%#77 H | +9.5%#26 M |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 16 | +0.4%#99 M | +1.6%#91 M | +5.1%#14 M | +7.4%#11 M |
| 52-week low | 1 | -5.9%– | -3.8%– | -3.6%– | +21.2%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 5 | -0.2%#262 L | -3.8%#348 L | +7.2%#145 L | +12.0%#71 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 3 | -0.3%#404 L | +0.9%#178 L | -0.3%#280 L | +9.3%#6 L |
| RSI oversold | 9 | +0.3%#196 M | +1.2%#193 M | +3.7%#178 M | +13.1%#136 L |
| RSI overbought latest session | 25 | -0.2%#380 H | -0.4%#362 H | +2.3%#120 M | +9.6%#42 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 41 | -0.9%#93 H | +0.7%#24 H | +1.1%#50 H | +10.1%#4 M |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | 157 | +0.6%#5 M | -2.0%#4 M | +3.4%#2 L | +8.3%– |
| Insider unplanned sale | 2 | +1.2%– | +3.5%– | +12.5%– | +3.8%– |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is TSM's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Earnings beat
EPS above the consensus; entry at the close of the session that first traded on it.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 20 | -1.56% (-2.1 to -0.6) | High | #480 of 497 | 35% | -0.62% |
-4%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 20 | -0.10% (-3.0 to +3.1) | High | #272 of 497 | 50% | -0.32% |
-11%
+9%
|
|
| 1 month | 20 | +4.75% (-2.7 to +7.2) | High | #77 of 497 | 65% | +0.95% |
-14%
+28%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 19 | +9.49% (+6.6 to +17.5) | Medium | #26 of 497 | 74% | +3.80% |
-29%
+58%
|
Range of outcomes: all of TSM's earnings beats in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Earnings beat by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 14 | -1.7%M vs +0.2% | -0.1%M vs +0.9% | +3.9%M vs +4.3% | +9.5%M vs +12.1% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 2 | -3.3%– vs 0.0% | +2.1%– vs +0.1% | +19.2%– vs +2.2% | +44.5%– vs +17.8% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 11 | -1.5%M vs 0.0% | -2.0%M vs +0.7% | +1.6%M vs +3.5% | +9.5%M vs +11.1% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 8 | -2.7%M vs +0.1% | +1.5%M vs +0.4% | +6.3%M vs +1.6% | +9.4%L vs +8.9% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 11 | -0.2%M vs +0.1% | -1.6%M vs +0.8% | +6.6%M vs +3.1% | +8.8%M vs +9.8% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 8 | -3.1%M vs 0.0% | -0.6%M vs 0.0% | +3.9%M vs +1.9% | +9.5%L vs +10.2% |
The same event split by where TSM stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest earnings beats
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Jul 16 @ $408.64 | 2Q2026 · EPS +$0.42 (+10.9%) vs consensus · -2.3% reaction | -2.8% | +1.4% | +4.1% | … |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Apr 16 @ $361.53 | 1Q2026 · EPS +$0.16 (+4.7%) vs consensus · -3.1% reaction | +2.0% | +5.3% | +11.3% | +9.9% |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Jan 15 @ $338.97 | 4Q2025 · EPS +$0.16 (+5.5%) vs consensus · +4.4% reaction | +0.2% | -2.0% | +6.6% | +8.8% |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Oct 16 @ $296.70 | 3Q2025 · EPS +$0.29 (+11.2%) vs consensus · -1.6% reaction | -1.6% | -3.0% | -5.0% | +14.5% |
| Jul 17, 2025 | Jul 17 @ $242.26 | EPS +$0.16 (+6.9%) vs consensus · +3.4% reaction | -2.1% | -1.6% | -2.7% | +24.5% |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Apr 17 @ $149.13 | EPS +$0.07 (+3.4%) vs consensus · +0.1% reaction | -2.6% | +8.8% | +27.5% | +58.0% |
| Jan 16, 2025 | Jan 16 @ $210.28 | EPS +$0.02 (+0.9%) vs consensus · +3.9% reaction | -1.5% | +3.3% | -5.6% | -29.1% |
| Oct 17, 2024 | Oct 17 @ $200.88 | EPS +$0.15 (+8.4%) vs consensus · +9.8% reaction | -2.5% | -3.8% | -9.6% | +6.6% |
| Jul 18, 2024 | Jul 18 @ $167.11 | EPS +$0.06 (+4.2%) vs consensus · +0.4% reaction | -3.5% | -6.7% | +1.6% | +9.5% |
| Apr 18, 2024 | Apr 18 @ $128.20 | EPS +$0.06 (+4.5%) vs consensus · -4.9% reaction | -3.5% | +3.3% | +14.7% | +25.7% |
| Jan 18, 2024 | Jan 18 @ $109.11 | EPS +$0.07 (+5.1%) vs consensus · +9.8% reaction | +1.0% | +3.1% | +12.1% | +17.5% |
| Oct 18, 2023 | Oct 19 @ $89.27 | EPS +$0.12 (+10.3%) vs consensus · +3.7% reaction | -1.7% | -5.9% | +7.2% | +22.2% |
| Jul 20, 2023 | Jul 20 @ $93.54 | EPS +$0.06 (+5.6%) vs consensus · -5.0% reaction | -0.6% | +1.5% | -6.9% | -8.0% |
| Apr 20, 2023 | Apr 20 @ $84.99 | EPS +$0.12 (+10.1%) vs consensus · +2.4% reaction | -4.4% | -6.3% | +3.7% | +9.4% |
| Jan 12, 2023 | Jan 12 @ $82.38 | EPS +$0.06 (+3.4%) vs consensus · +6.4% reaction | -0.2% | +4.6% | +10.5% | +0.8% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.