Aftermath
After crossing below the 200-day average, over the next day
The close moves below its 200-day moving average. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.07% over the next day after crossing below the 200-day average (half of them between -0.36% and +0.53%), against +0.06% on any day.
Latest crosses below the 200-day average, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 day | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | CTSH Cognizant | -3.9% on the day | +1.66% | Low | #71 of 497 | 71% | 7 |
| Oct 2 | PTC PTC Inc. | -1.7% on the day | -0.89% | Low | #408 of 497 | 29% | 7 |
| Oct 2 | SW Smurfit Westrock | -1.2% on the day | +0.35% | Medium | #99 of 497 | 57% | 14 |
| Oct 1 | EL Estée Lauder Companies … | -2.8% on the day | +0.14% | Low | #227 of 497 | 71% | 7 |
| Oct 1 | KVUE Kenvue | -2.5% on the day | -1.16% | Medium | #389 of 497 | 38% | 8 |
| Oct 1 | VTR Ventas | -1.5% on the day | +0.33% | Medium | #178 of 497 | 56% | 9 |
| Sep 30 | ALL Allstate | -1.6% on the day | +0.99% | Medium | #17 of 497 | 73% | 11 |
| Sep 30 | BAC Bank of America | -1.0% on the day | +0.21% | Medium | #211 of 497 | 50% | 8 |
| Sep 30 | CB Chubb Limited | -2.1% on the day | +0.05% | Medium | #273 of 497 | 50% | 12 |
| Sep 30 | GM General Motors | -4.3% on the day | +1.42% | Medium | #73 of 497 | 69% | 13 |
| Sep 30 | GNRC Generac | -2.5% on the day | +0.51% | Medium | #120 of 497 | 67% | 9 |
| Sep 30 | KHC Kraft Heinz | -3.1% on the day | +0.06% | Medium | #254 of 497 | 54% | 13 |
| Sep 30 | LQDA | -57.2% on the day | +2.10% | Medium | #179 of 497 | 55% | 11 |
| Sep 30 | MCHP Microchip Technology | -1.3% on the day | +2.00% | Medium | #2 of 497 | 83% | 12 |
| Sep 30 | MDLZ Mondelez International | -1.7% on the day | +0.28% | Medium | #50 of 497 | 64% | 14 |
| Sep 30 | MS Morgan Stanley | -2.4% on the day | -0.11% | Medium | #306 of 497 | 40% | 10 |
| Sep 30 | NSC Norfolk Southern | -1.3% on the day | +0.05% | Medium | #262 of 497 | 55% | 11 |
| Sep 30 | SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | -1.4% on the day | -0.28% | Medium | #334 of 497 | 50% | 10 |
| Sep 29 | CFG Citizens Financial Group | -1.4% on the day | -0.05% | Low | #268 of 497 | 40% | 5 |
| Sep 29 | FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | -1.2% on the day | -0.44% | Low | #354 of 497 | 43% | 7 |
| Sep 29 | FOXA Fox Corporation (Class … | -0.9% on the day | +0.18% | Medium | #231 of 497 | 60% | 10 |
| Sep 29 | MDT Medtronic | -2.7% on the day | -0.33% | Medium | #437 of 497 | 33% | 12 |
| Sep 29 | SLB Schlumberger | -3.1% on the day | -0.36% | Medium | #339 of 497 | 44% | 9 |
| Sep 29 | T AT&T | -1.7% on the day | +1.12% | Medium | #34 of 497 | 78% | 9 |
| Sep 29 | TEL TE Connectivity | -1.0% on the day | +0.25% | Medium | #110 of 497 | 62% | 13 |
| Sep 28 | ARE Alexandria Real Estate … | -2.5% on the day | 0.00% | Medium | #303 of 497 | 50% | 10 |
| Sep 28 | AWK American Water Works | -1.5% on the day | +0.75% | Medium | #56 of 497 | 56% | 16 |
| Sep 28 | CDW CDW Corporation | -3.8% on the day | -0.24% | Medium | #343 of 497 | 45% | 11 |
| Sep 28 | CTVA Corteva | -1.0% on the day | +0.82% | Medium | #67 of 497 | 82% | 11 |
| Sep 28 | DLR Digital Realty | -0.8% on the day | -0.35% | Low | #373 of 497 | 43% | 7 |
| Sep 28 | MNST Monster Beverage | -2.9% on the day | +0.23% | Medium | #46 of 497 | 70% | 10 |
Best after crossing below the 200-day average
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QQQ meme | +0.94%+0.7 to +1.1 | Low | +1.03% | 100% | +0.14% | +1% · +1% | 4 |
| 2 | PPG PPG Industries | +1.45%+0.9 to +1.7 | Medium | +1.17% | 82% | +1.02% | -1% · +4% | 11 |
| 3 | MCHP Microchip Technology | +2.00%+0.9 to +2.1 | Medium | +2.41% | 83% | +0.93% | -1% · +11% | 12 |
| 4 | FIS Fidelity National Information … | +1.08%+0.8 to +1.7 | Low | +1.28% | 100% | +1.00% | +1% · +2% | 5 |
| 5 | IFF International Flavors & … | +3.46%+1.9 to +3.8 | Low | +3.17% | 100% | +3.25% | +2% · +4% | 4 |
| 6 | AMP Ameriprise Financial | +0.85%+0.3 to +1.0 | Medium | +0.66% | 80% | +0.64% | -4% · +4% | 15 |
| 7 | TDY Teledyne Technologies | +0.29%+0.2 to +0.3 | Medium | +0.17% | 73% | +0.48% | -2% · +2% | 11 |
| 8 | NUE Nucor | +1.68%+0.1 to +2.0 | Medium | +0.91% | 78% | +1.05% | -3% · +4% | 9 |
| 9 | DASH DoorDash | +1.77%+1.2 to +3.1 | Low | +1.79% | 86% | +1.68% | -1% · +4% | 7 |
| 10 | IQV IQVIA | +1.12%-0.1 to +1.5 | Medium | +1.02% | 70% | +0.63% | -1% · +4% | 10 |
| 11 | PFE Pfizer | +0.40%0.0 to +0.6 | Medium | +0.17% | 64% | -0.32% | -2% · +1% | 11 |
| 12 | TXN Texas Instruments | +0.64%+0.4 to +1.2 | Medium | +0.81% | 76% | +0.09% | -3% · +6% | 17 |
| 13 | BXP BXP, Inc. | +1.19%+1.0 to +1.7 | Medium | +0.91% | 82% | +0.45% | -3% · +5% | 11 |
| 14 | FTNT Fortinet | +1.48%-0.1 to +1.9 | Low | +1.30% | 71% | +0.77% | -1% · +4% | 7 |
| 15 | MTB M&T Bank | +0.77%-0.3 to +1.0 | Medium | +0.53% | 70% | +0.30% | -1% · +2% | 10 |
| 16 | PSX Phillips 66 | +0.85%+0.1 to +1.1 | Medium | -0.04% | 75% | -0.01% | -8% · +1% | 12 |
| 17 | AKAM Akamai Technologies | +1.03%+0.1 to +1.2 | Low | +1.05% | 83% | +0.52% | 0% · +3% | 6 |
| 18 | ALL Allstate | +0.99%+0.5 to +1.5 | Medium | +0.64% | 73% | +0.37% | -2% · +3% | 11 |
| 19 | AEO meme | +2.10%+0.7 to +2.4 | Medium | +1.63% | 80% | +2.10% | -2% · +4% | 10 |
| 20 | AIG American International Group | +0.61%+0.2 to +1.0 | Medium | +0.44% | 75% | +0.64% | -5% · +3% | 16 |
| 21 | KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | +0.33%-0.1 to +0.5 | Medium | +0.29% | 62% | 0.00% | 0% · +1% | 13 |
| 22 | IRM Iron Mountain | +1.64%0.0 to +1.8 | Medium | +0.98% | 75% | +0.61% | -3% · +2% | 8 |
| 23 | UNP Union Pacific Corporation | +0.56%0.0 to +0.7 | Medium | +0.58% | 75% | +0.17% | -1% · +3% | 12 |
| 24 | MRSH Marsh McLennan | +1.10%+0.2 to +1.9 | Medium | +1.27% | 88% | +0.83% | -1% · +4% | 8 |
| 25 | BNY BNY Mellon | +1.01%+0.9 to +1.5 | Medium | +1.17% | 75% | +0.77% | -1% · +4% | 8 |
Worst after crossing below the 200-day average
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ECL Ecolab | -0.85%-1.0 to -0.7 | Medium | -0.44% | 20% | -0.56% | -3% · +3% | 10 |
| 2 | HUM Humana | -0.57%-0.7 to -0.4 | Medium | -0.66% | 29% | +0.15% | -7% · +2% | 14 |
| 3 | HD Home Depot (The) | -0.51%-1.0 to -0.2 | Medium | -0.43% | 22% | -0.17% | -2% · +2% | 9 |
| 4 | NFLX Netflix | -1.49%-2.5 to -1.3 | Low | -1.59% | 0% | -2.07% | -3% · -1% | 4 |
| 5 | EOG EOG Resources | -0.80%-1.1 to -0.2 | Medium | -1.10% | 29% | -0.72% | -8% · +2% | 17 |
| 6 | CSCO Cisco | -0.57%-0.6 to -0.2 | Low | -0.59% | 0% | -0.06% | -2% · 0% | 5 |
| 7 | KR Kroger | -0.72%-0.9 to -0.2 | Medium | -0.23% | 33% | -0.94% | -2% · +3% | 12 |
| 8 | SPGI S&P Global | -0.54%-0.6 to -0.1 | Medium | -0.44% | 27% | -0.62% | -2% · +1% | 11 |
| 9 | UHS Universal Health Services | -0.93%-1.0 to -0.7 | Low | -0.85% | 20% | -0.83% | -2% · +1% | 5 |
| 10 | ADBE Adobe Inc. | -2.74%-2.9 to -2.7 | Low | -1.86% | 14% | -1.18% | -3% · +2% | 7 |
| 11 | DD DuPont | -0.63%-1.0 to -0.1 | Medium | +0.22% | 30% | -0.38% | -2% · +8% | 10 |
| 12 | DGX Quest Diagnostics | -0.72%-1.4 to +0.2 | Low | -0.43% | 29% | -0.53% | -1% · +2% | 7 |
| 13 | CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | -1.24%-1.6 to -0.3 | Medium | -1.14% | 18% | -0.25% | -3% · +1% | 11 |
| 14 | LOW Lowe's | -0.64%-0.8 to +0.1 | Medium | +0.06% | 38% | +0.11% | -1% · +4% | 13 |
| 15 | DOC Healthpeak Properties | -0.50%-0.7 to -0.1 | Medium | -0.15% | 27% | +0.14% | -1% · +1% | 11 |
| 16 | CMS CMS Energy | -0.36%-0.5 to +0.2 | Medium | -0.28% | 38% | -0.42% | -2% · +2% | 13 |
| 17 | ADI Analog Devices | -0.79%-1.7 to -0.3 | Medium | -0.84% | 20% | +0.07% | -3% · +2% | 10 |
| 18 | SPY meme | -0.73%-1.2 to +0.3 | Low | -0.43% | 29% | 0.00% | -1% · +1% | 7 |
| 19 | LMT Lockheed Martin | -0.52%-1.4 to -0.4 | Medium | -0.75% | 21% | -0.89% | -2% · +1% | 14 |
| 20 | HON Honeywell Technologies | -0.19%-0.4 to +0.2 | Medium | +0.28% | 42% | -0.13% | -2% · +6% | 19 |
| 21 | RTX RTX Corporation | -0.15%-0.5 to -0.1 | Medium | -0.26% | 25% | -0.26% | -1% · +1% | 8 |
| 22 | CPRT Copart | -0.53%-1.4 to -0.3 | Low | -0.45% | 14% | -0.35% | -2% · +2% | 7 |
| 23 | COO Cooper Companies (The) | -0.62%-1.0 to -0.2 | Medium | 0.00% | 30% | -0.38% | -2% · +5% | 10 |
| 24 | APH Amphenol | -0.82%-1.5 to -0.7 | Medium | -1.07% | 25% | -0.57% | -4% · 0% | 8 |
| 25 | VZ Verizon | -0.27%-0.8 to -0.1 | Low | -0.48% | 14% | -0.64% | -2% · 0% | 7 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next day from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.