Aftermath
After a big drop, over the next week
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years. So "big" depends on the stock: a quiet stock's big day is a volatile stock's normal one; each stock's own line is shown under its name. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.45% over the next week after a big drop (half of them between +0.03% and +0.88%), against +0.27% on any day.
Latest big drops, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 week | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | ACN Accenture | -6.3% on the day (line -2.6%) | +0.51% | High | #236 of 500 | 54% | 68 |
| Oct 2 | ADP Automatic Data Processing | -2.4% on the day (line -1.6%) | +0.93% | High | #62 of 500 | 60% | 68 |
| Oct 2 | AJG Arthur J. Gallagher … | -2.5% on the day (line -2.0%) | -0.18% | High | #471 of 500 | 43% | 61 |
| Oct 2 | AON Aon plc | -2.4% on the day (line -1.7%) | +0.54% | High | #213 of 500 | 58% | 66 |
| Oct 2 | BR Broadridge Financial Solutions | -2.6% on the day (line -1.8%) | -0.33% | High | #444 of 500 | 48% | 54 |
| Oct 2 | BRO Brown & Brown | -3.0% on the day (line -1.9%) | +0.18% | High | #330 of 500 | 52% | 66 |
| Oct 2 | CTSH Cognizant | -3.9% on the day (line -2.4%) | +0.31% | High | #327 of 500 | 54% | 68 |
| Oct 2 | FDS FactSet | -4.2% on the day (line -2.6%) | -0.02% | High | #380 of 500 | 49% | 69 |
| Oct 2 | ISRG Intuitive Surgical | -2.3% on the day (line -2.2%) | +1.28% | High | #47 of 500 | 60% | 63 |
| Oct 2 | IT Gartner | -4.2% on the day (line -3.0%) | -0.29% | High | #347 of 500 | 45% | 60 |
| Oct 2 | LDOS Leidos | -3.5% on the day (line -2.1%) | -0.15% | High | #411 of 500 | 48% | 62 |
| Oct 2 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -3.6% on the day (line -2.4%) | -0.93% | High | #438 of 500 | 46% | 59 |
| Oct 2 | NVR NVR, Inc. | -2.2% on the day (line -2.1%) | +0.15% | High | #338 of 500 | 54% | 67 |
| Oct 2 | PAYX Paychex | -1.9% on the day (line -1.9%) | +0.19% | High | #373 of 500 | 57% | 67 |
| Oct 2 | ROP Roper Technologies | -2.0% on the day (line -1.9%) | +0.34% | High | #403 of 500 | 59% | 66 |
| Oct 2 | ROST Ross Stores | -2.4% on the day (line -1.6%) | +0.96% | High | #140 of 500 | 55% | 49 |
| Oct 2 | SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | -1.7% on the day (line -1.6%) | -0.11% | High | #325 of 500 | 46% | 52 |
| Oct 2 | STX Seagate Technology | -10.2% on the day (line -3.6%) | +0.02% | High | #303 of 500 | 51% | 61 |
| Oct 2 | VEEV Veeva Systems | -3.0% on the day (line -2.6%) | -0.07% | High | #365 of 500 | 48% | 58 |
| Oct 2 | VRSK Verisk Analytics | -2.7% on the day (line -2.0%) | +0.08% | High | #362 of 500 | 50% | 60 |
| Oct 2 | WDC Western Digital | -10.2% on the day (line -4.0%) | -0.85% | High | #318 of 500 | 45% | 55 |
| Oct 1 | A Agilent Technologies | -3.3% on the day (line -2.2%) | -0.42% | High | #488 of 500 | 44% | 61 |
| Oct 1 | AMGN Amgen | -3.4% on the day (line -1.8%) | +0.02% | High | #455 of 500 | 51% | 73 |
| Oct 1 | BRUN | -3.7% on the day (line -3.2%) | -1.87% | High | #309 of 500 | 25% | 20 |
| Oct 1 | CRL Charles River Laboratories | -2.8% on the day (line -2.7%) | -0.46% | High | #335 of 500 | 47% | 57 |
| Oct 1 | CTVA Corteva | -83.8% on the day (line -1.5%) | -0.30% | High | #490 of 500 | 42% | 62 |
| Oct 1 | DHR Danaher Corporation | -4.4% on the day (line -2.1%) | +0.25% | High | #289 of 500 | 51% | 59 |
| Oct 1 | DIS Walt Disney Company … | -3.4% on the day (line -1.7%) | -0.50% | High | #414 of 500 | 47% | 62 |
| Oct 1 | DOC Healthpeak Properties | -2.6% on the day (line -1.7%) | +0.46% | High | #248 of 500 | 51% | 57 |
| Oct 1 | FOX Fox Corporation (Class … | -2.5% on the day (line -2.0%) | +1.15% | High | #146 of 500 | 58% | 59 |
| Oct 1 | FOXA Fox Corporation (Class … | -2.2% on the day (line -2.1%) | +1.18% | High | #95 of 500 | 59% | 63 |
| Oct 1 | ILMN Illumina, Inc. | -2.9% on the day (line -2.9%) | +0.55% | High | #239 of 500 | 53% | 60 |
| Oct 1 | INCY Incyte | -3.5% on the day (line -2.1%) | +0.71% | High | #128 of 500 | 56% | 64 |
| Oct 1 | IQV IQVIA | -3.0% on the day (line -2.4%) | +0.02% | High | #298 of 500 | 51% | 61 |
| Oct 1 | KMB Kimberly-Clark | -3.2% on the day (line -1.6%) | +0.20% | High | #413 of 500 | 52% | 65 |
| Oct 1 | KVUE Kenvue | -2.5% on the day (line -1.9%) | +1.07% | High | #129 of 500 | 56% | 39 |
| Oct 1 | LVS Las Vegas Sands | -3.0% on the day (line -2.4%) | +0.11% | High | #337 of 500 | 52% | 62 |
| Oct 1 | NIVF | -39.9% on the day (line -14.2%) | -2.42% | High | #319 of 500 | 37% | 76 |
| Oct 1 | O Realty Income | -1.4% on the day (line -1.3%) | -0.01% | High | #486 of 500 | 50% | 62 |
| Oct 1 | PSKY Paramount Skydance Corporation | -9.6% on the day (line -3.2%) | -0.64% | High | #443 of 500 | 43% | 63 |
| Oct 1 | RSG Republic Services | -1.4% on the day (line -1.3%) | +0.03% | High | #437 of 500 | 50% | 58 |
| Oct 1 | SJM J.M. Smucker Company … | -2.5% on the day (line -1.9%) | -0.05% | High | #491 of 500 | 48% | 73 |
| Oct 1 | TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific | -3.3% on the day (line -2.0%) | +0.09% | High | #353 of 500 | 52% | 62 |
| Oct 1 | VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | -3.1% on the day (line -1.9%) | +1.08% | High | #123 of 500 | 55% | 60 |
| Oct 1 | WAT Waters Corporation | -3.1% on the day (line -2.1%) | +0.55% | High | #195 of 500 | 59% | 56 |
| Sep 30 | ACGL Arch Capital Group | -2.9% on the day (line -1.7%) | +1.08% | High | #60 of 500 | 59% | 63 |
| Sep 30 | AFL Aflac | -1.6% on the day (line -1.3%) | +1.01% | High | #26 of 500 | 68% | 59 |
| Sep 30 | AOS A. O. Smith | -2.8% on the day (line -2.0%) | -0.05% | High | #424 of 500 | 48% | 58 |
| Sep 30 | APP AppLovin | -5.0% on the day (line -4.8%) | +0.82% | High | #235 of 500 | 57% | 53 |
| Sep 30 | BNY BNY Mellon | -1.6% on the day (line -1.4%) | +0.97% | High | #78 of 500 | 60% | 52 |
| Sep 30 | CB Chubb Limited | -2.1% on the day (line -1.4%) | +0.98% | High | #24 of 500 | 70% | 60 |
| Sep 30 | CEG Constellation Energy | -4.0% on the day (line -3.6%) | +1.05% | High | #88 of 500 | 59% | 66 |
| Sep 30 | COR Cencora | -2.4% on the day (line -1.5%) | +1.13% | High | #16 of 500 | 64% | 61 |
| Sep 30 | COST Costco | -1.5% on the day (line -1.4%) | +0.13% | High | #429 of 500 | 53% | 66 |
| Sep 30 | FLEX Flex Ltd. | -3.4% on the day (line -3.3%) | -0.59% | High | #452 of 500 | 48% | 63 |
| Sep 30 | GIS General Mills | -4.9% on the day (line -2.2%) | -0.38% | High | #497 of 500 | 44% | 81 |
| Sep 30 | HIG Hartford (The) | -2.8% on the day (line -1.5%) | +1.67% | High | #6 of 500 | 69% | 59 |
| Sep 30 | HSY Hershey Company (The) | -2.4% on the day (line -2.1%) | -0.55% | High | #494 of 500 | 42% | 76 |
| Sep 30 | IDXX Idexx Laboratories | -2.1% on the day (line -2.1%) | +0.03% | High | #434 of 500 | 51% | 59 |
| Sep 30 | IFF International Flavors & … | -2.1% on the day (line -2.0%) | +0.54% | High | #238 of 500 | 53% | 60 |
Best after a big drop
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MCK McKesson Corporation (-1.7% or worse) | +1.99%+1.4 to +2.3 | High | +1.62% | 76% | +1.26% | -10% · +16% | 74 |
| 2 | AMP Ameriprise Financial (-1.9% or worse) | +1.33%+0.8 to +1.6 | High | +0.61% | 68% | +0.54% | -12% · +16% | 59 |
| 3 | NWSA News Corp (Class … (-1.7% or worse) | +1.77%+1.0 to +2.4 | High | +1.60% | 71% | +1.04% | -7% · +8% | 56 |
| 4 | VST Vistra Corp. (-3.9% or worse) | +2.21%+1.5 to +2.7 | High | +3.40% | 68% | +1.24% | -20% · +23% | 75 |
| 5 | EIX Edison International (-2.1% or worse) | +1.78%+1.1 to +2.2 | High | +1.06% | 69% | +1.12% | -25% · +10% | 72 |
| 6 | HIG Hartford (The) (-1.5% or worse) | +1.67%+1.0 to +2.1 | High | +1.03% | 69% | +0.07% | -9% · +8% | 59 |
| 7 | WMT Walmart (-1.6% or worse) | +1.06%+0.8 to +1.3 | High | +0.84% | 66% | +0.34% | -10% · +6% | 67 |
| 8 | NI NiSource (-1.4% or worse) | +1.87%+0.9 to +2.0 | High | +0.82% | 63% | +0.89% | -9% · +8% | 67 |
| 9 | KMI Kinder Morgan (-1.5% or worse) | +1.03%+0.7 to +1.5 | High | +0.91% | 67% | +0.02% | -11% · +8% | 64 |
| 10 | PH Parker Hannifin (-1.7% or worse) | +1.34%+0.8 to +1.6 | High | +1.47% | 70% | +1.07% | -11% · +12% | 61 |
| 11 | PWR Quanta Services (-2.7% or worse) | +2.34%+1.5 to +3.1 | High | +1.70% | 69% | +1.28% | -13% · +15% | 61 |
| 12 | EBAY eBay Inc. (-2.0% or worse) | +1.48%+0.5 to +1.7 | High | +1.60% | 71% | +0.73% | -5% · +18% | 58 |
| 13 | ALL Allstate (-1.9% or worse) | +1.29%+0.8 to +1.5 | High | +0.80% | 69% | +0.37% | -10% · +7% | 70 |
| 14 | FIX Comfort Systems USA (-3.3% or worse) | +1.83%+1.6 to +2.6 | High | +3.23% | 68% | +1.48% | -10% · +28% | 71 |
| 15 | GL Globe Life (-1.5% or worse) | +1.23%+0.7 to +1.6 | High | +0.50% | 69% | +0.74% | -40% · +12% | 61 |
| 16 | COR Cencora (-1.5% or worse) | +1.13%+0.6 to +1.5 | High | +0.65% | 64% | +0.39% | -8% · +8% | 61 |
| 17 | PSA Public Storage (-1.8% or worse) | +0.91%+0.4 to +1.2 | High | +0.70% | 69% | 0.00% | -11% · +8% | 70 |
| 18 | CTAS Cintas (-1.5% or worse) | +1.26%+0.9 to +1.8 | High | +0.62% | 63% | +0.27% | -10% · +8% | 59 |
| 19 | IBKR Interactive Brokers (-2.8% or worse) | +2.75%+1.6 to +3.4 | High | +1.89% | 73% | +1.24% | -13% · +12% | 60 |
| 20 | P Everpure (-4.3% or worse) | +2.09%+1.2 to +2.6 | High | +1.47% | 62% | +0.99% | -19% · +21% | 71 |
| 21 | CL Colgate-Palmolive (-1.7% or worse) | +1.03%+0.4 to +1.3 | High | +0.80% | 62% | +0.22% | -5% · +8% | 73 |
| 22 | MRVL Marvell Technology (-4.5% or worse) | +3.16%+1.7 to +3.9 | High | +3.92% | 65% | +2.32% | -23% · +52% | 65 |
| 23 | SW Smurfit Westrock (-2.9% or worse) | +2.49%+0.9 to +3.0 | High | +1.88% | 65% | +2.11% | -13% · +19% | 62 |
| 24 | CB Chubb Limited (-1.4% or worse) | +0.98%+0.6 to +1.6 | High | +1.17% | 70% | -0.29% | -5% · +6% | 60 |
| 25 | AMCR Amcor (-1.8% or worse) | +0.92%+0.4 to +1.4 | High | +0.79% | 64% | +0.39% | -8% · +9% | 69 |
Worst after a big drop
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PEP PepsiCo (-1.6% or worse) | -0.32%-0.7 to 0.0 | High | +0.15% | 44% | -0.75% | -5% · +9% | 71 |
| 2 | MAS Masco (-2.2% or worse) | -0.71%-1.2 to -0.3 | High | +0.49% | 36% | -1.06% | -8% · +17% | 64 |
| 3 | PPG PPG Industries (-2.1% or worse) | -0.54%-1.1 to -0.3 | High | +0.01% | 40% | -0.34% | -9% · +8% | 63 |
| 4 | GIS General Mills (-2.2% or worse) | -0.38%-0.6 to 0.0 | High | -0.05% | 44% | -0.76% | -10% · +8% | 81 |
| 5 | APTV Aptiv (-2.6% or worse) | -1.09%-1.6 to -0.3 | High | -1.13% | 38% | -1.31% | -12% · +11% | 55 |
| 6 | AMT American Tower (-2.0% or worse) | -0.47%-0.9 to 0.0 | High | -0.41% | 42% | -0.86% | -14% · +10% | 59 |
| 7 | HSY Hershey Company (The) (-2.2% or worse) | -0.55%-1.4 to -0.1 | High | -0.46% | 42% | -1.50% | -6% · +7% | 76 |
| 8 | MDLZ Mondelez International (-1.8% or worse) | -0.04%-0.3 to +0.4 | High | +0.30% | 49% | -0.40% | -9% · +8% | 70 |
| 9 | HON Honeywell Technologies (-1.7% or worse) | -0.86%-1.1 to +0.2 | High | -0.08% | 43% | -0.87% | -9% · +9% | 63 |
| 10 | SJM J.M. Smucker Company … (-1.9% or worse) | -0.05%-0.2 to +0.6 | High | +0.23% | 48% | -0.17% | -7% · +9% | 73 |
| 11 | CTVA Corteva (-1.5% or worse) | -0.30%-0.9 to -0.1 | High | -0.10% | 42% | -0.49% | -13% · +11% | 62 |
| 12 | CCI Crown Castle (-2.2% or worse) | -0.34%-0.9 to 0.0 | High | -0.11% | 42% | -0.88% | -11% · +12% | 65 |
| 13 | WEN meme (-3.0% or worse) | -0.90%-1.6 to 0.0 | High | -0.32% | 43% | -1.83% | -12% · +34% | 77 |
| 14 | A Agilent Technologies (-2.2% or worse) | -0.42%-0.8 to +0.3 | High | +0.21% | 44% | -0.69% | -12% · +14% | 61 |
| 15 | LHX L3Harris (-1.7% or worse) | -0.42%-1.2 to -0.3 | High | +0.01% | 40% | -0.23% | -6% · +11% | 58 |
| 16 | O Realty Income (-1.3% or worse) | -0.01%-0.3 to +0.5 | High | +0.04% | 50% | -0.70% | -6% · +6% | 62 |
| 17 | ITW Illinois Tool Works (-1.4% or worse) | -0.10%-0.4 to +0.5 | High | +0.17% | 49% | +0.27% | -6% · +5% | 57 |
| 18 | VICI Vici Properties (-1.5% or worse) | -0.33%-0.7 to +0.4 | High | -0.03% | 48% | -0.53% | -5% · +4% | 54 |
| 19 | ZBH Zimmer Biomet (-1.9% or worse) | -0.16%-0.6 to +0.4 | High | +0.07% | 48% | -1.19% | -8% · +9% | 63 |
| 20 | WM Waste Management (-1.4% or worse) | 0.00%-0.5 to +0.4 | High | +0.03% | 50% | -0.72% | -8% · +7% | 60 |
| 21 | PFE Pfizer (-1.8% or worse) | -0.17%-0.7 to +0.3 | High | +0.23% | 45% | -0.89% | -6% · +15% | 60 |
| 22 | YUM Yum! Brands (-1.7% or worse) | -0.10%-0.6 to +0.5 | High | +0.07% | 48% | -0.72% | -6% · +9% | 66 |
| 23 | STZ Constellation Brands (-2.2% or worse) | -0.18%-0.6 to +0.3 | High | +0.04% | 46% | -0.25% | -8% · +11% | 71 |
| 24 | TLT meme (-0.9% or worse) | -0.17%-0.6 to +0.6 | High | -0.06% | 47% | -1.22% | -5% · +4% | 49 |
| 25 | CDW CDW Corporation (-2.8% or worse) | -0.83%-1.7 to +0.2 | High | -0.91% | 43% | -0.91% | -9% · +8% | 63 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next week from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.