TLT
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TLT −0.30% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −1.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi oversold (Sep 28): After its 12 oversold readings in the past 5 years, TLT typically gained 0.4% over the next day (median) and was higher 58% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -0.2% and +1.2%. An ordinary day: -0.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after oversold readings, that ranks #66 of 496.
- 9 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 69% positive over the week.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | 0.0%#484 H | -0.2%#500 H | -0.7%#496 H | -1.6%#474 M |
| Big drop (-0.9% or worse) | 49 | +0.1%#331 H | -0.2%#479 H | +0.8%#475 H | -0.4%#491 M |
| Big gain (+0.9% or better) | 42 | -0.1%#441 H | +0.3%#294 H | +0.1%#494 H | -0.9%#496 M |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 4 | +0.2%#169 L | -1.0%#399 L | -2.2%#478 L | -4.8%#455 L |
| 52-week low | 5 | +0.3%#10 L | +1.0%#81 L | -1.6%#243 L | +5.4%#146 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 19 | -0.1%#439 M | -0.2%#490 M | -2.1%#498 M | -2.6%#494 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 17 | 0.0%#291 M | -0.1%#457 M | -1.3%#487 M | -1.2%#487 M |
| RSI oversold Sep 28 | 12 | +0.4%#66 M | +0.8%#223 M | +0.3%#445 M | +0.2%#492 L |
| RSI overbought | 6 | -0.7%#491 L | -1.4%#466 L | -3.4%#500 L | -4.4%#502 L |
| Reddit spike | 21 | 0.0%#83 H | +0.2%#62 H | +0.5%#77 M | +1.6%#72 M |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is TLT's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big drop (-0.9% or worse)
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 49 | +0.07% (-0.2 to +0.3) | High | #331 of 500 | 53% | -0.39% |
-2%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 49 | -0.17% (-0.6 to +0.6) | High | #479 of 500 | 47% | -1.22% |
-5%
+4%
|
|
| 1 month | 47 ≈35 indep. | +0.81% (-0.4 to +1.0) | High | #475 of 500 | 55% | -1.97% |
-10%
+14%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 46 ≈15 indep. | -0.42% (-1.4 to +1.5) | Medium | #491 of 499 | 48% | -4.76% |
-15%
+14%
|
Range of outcomes: all of TLT's big drops in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big drop by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 12 | -0.4%M vs -0.1% | -0.7%M vs -0.4% | -0.4%M vs -1.1% | -3.0%M vs -2.2% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 37 | +0.2%H vs +0.1% | -0.1%H vs +0.1% | +0.8%H vs 0.0% | +0.6%M vs +0.2% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 15 | -0.7%M vs -0.1% | -0.9%M vs -0.4% | -0.4%M vs -1.3% | -2.5%M vs -2.3% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 34 | +0.3%H vs +0.1% | 0.0%H vs -0.2% | +0.9%H vs -0.7% | +1.1%M vs -0.7% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 14 | -0.4%M vs -0.1% | +0.1%M vs -0.1% | +0.6%M vs -0.7% | -1.7%M vs -2.2% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 35 | +0.1%H vs 0.0% | -0.2%H vs -0.2% | +0.8%H vs -0.8% | +1.1%M vs -0.9% |
The same event split by where TLT stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big drops
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 23 @ $80.14 | -1.6% on the day (line -0.9%) | -1.3% | -3.3% | … | … |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 10 @ $80.46 | -1.2% on the day (line -0.9%) | +0.1% | +1.2% | … | … |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Jul 29 @ $81.87 | -1.6% on the day (line -0.9%) | -0.1% | +0.6% | +0.7% | … |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Jun 30 @ $85.09 | -1.2% on the day (line -0.9%) | -0.7% | -2.0% | -3.8% | -8.4% |
| May 15, 2026 | May 15 @ $82.05 | -1.5% on the day (line -0.9%) | -0.1% | +1.2% | +3.4% | -1.6% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Mar 20 @ $83.53 | -1.9% on the day (line -1.0%) | +0.7% | -0.2% | +1.3% | +1.5% |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Mar 10 @ $85.92 | -1.1% on the day (line -1.0%) | -1.3% | -0.9% | -1.4% | -2.5% |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Mar 2 @ $87.21 | -1.0% on the day (line -0.9%) | -0.2% | -0.4% | -3.3% | -3.5% |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Jan 20 @ $83.73 | -1.3% on the day (line -1.0%) | +0.8% | +1.3% | +3.8% | +1.0% |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Dec 1 @ $85.45 | -1.2% on the day (line -1.0%) | 0.0% | -1.0% | -1.4% | +1.5% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Nov 5 @ $85.32 | -1.1% on the day (line -1.0%) | +0.9% | +1.3% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| Jul 11, 2025 | Jul 11 @ $81.08 | -1.4% on the day (line -1.2%) | -0.2% | -0.6% | +2.3% | +5.1% |
| Jun 6, 2025 | Jun 6 @ $80.37 | -1.3% on the day (line -1.2%) | +0.1% | +1.1% | +2.2% | +6.3% |
| May 21, 2025 | May 21 @ $78.77 | -1.7% on the day (line -1.2%) | +0.5% | +2.6% | +3.7% | +4.1% |
| Apr 21, 2025 | Apr 21 @ $80.38 | -1.8% on the day (line -1.2%) | +0.6% | +4.0% | -0.3% | +1.7% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.