Aftermath
After an RSI oversold reading, over the next month
The 14-day RSI falls below 30. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +2.12% over the next month after an RSI oversold reading (half of them between +0.02% and +4.37%), against +0.86% on any day.
Latest oversold readings, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 month | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | APP AppLovin | RSI 28.4, -4.7% on the day | -5.15% | Medium | #449 of 495 | 27% | 11 |
| Oct 2 | FISV Fiserv | RSI 29.2, -2.2% on the day | -0.59% | Medium | #356 of 495 | 44% | 9 |
| Oct 2 | GPN Global Payments | RSI 29.6, -2.4% on the day | +2.39% | Medium | #232 of 495 | 64% | 14 |
| Oct 2 | IP International Paper | RSI 28.5, -1.7% on the day | +3.01% | Medium | #81 of 495 | 79% | 14 |
| Oct 2 | KKR KKR & Co. | RSI 29.6, -1.0% on the day | +2.01% | Medium | #243 of 495 | 50% | 10 |
| Oct 2 | MCO Moody's Corporation | RSI 30.0, -1.3% on the day | -1.65% | Medium | #361 of 495 | 38% | 8 |
| Oct 2 | NKE Nike, Inc. | RSI 28.5, -3.6% on the day | +0.20% | Medium | #423 of 495 | 50% | 18 |
| Oct 2 | REG Regency Centers | RSI 29.1, -0.3% on the day | +3.47% | Medium | #42 of 495 | 75% | 8 |
| Oct 2 | WEN | RSI 29.0, -2.1% on the day | +1.43% | Medium | #382 of 495 | 69% | 13 |
| Oct 1 | AFL Aflac | RSI 29.4, -0.5% on the day | +3.29% | Low | #87 of 495 | 83% | 6 |
| Oct 1 | CTVA Corteva | RSI 5.8, -83.8% on the day | +3.73% | Low | #53 of 495 | 100% | 6 |
| Oct 1 | GS Goldman Sachs | RSI 29.8, -0.4% on the day | +4.67% | Medium | #121 of 495 | 89% | 9 |
| Oct 1 | KMB Kimberly-Clark | RSI 28.7, -3.2% on the day | +2.04% | Medium | #283 of 495 | 64% | 11 |
| Oct 1 | RSG Republic Services | RSI 29.3, -1.4% on the day | +3.24% | Low | #203 of 495 | 75% | 4 |
| Oct 1 | VTR Ventas | RSI 26.3, -1.5% on the day | -0.47% | Medium | #445 of 495 | 50% | 8 |
| Sep 30 | ABT Abbott Laboratories | RSI 29.9, -2.1% on the day | +2.14% | Medium | #250 of 495 | 56% | 16 |
| Sep 30 | APO Apollo Global Management | RSI 29.6, -2.5% on the day | +5.93% | Medium | #21 of 495 | 83% | 12 |
| Sep 30 | CB Chubb Limited | RSI 29.8, -2.1% on the day | +4.04% | Low | #122 of 495 | 67% | 6 |
| Sep 30 | F Ford Motor Company | RSI 29.0, -1.9% on the day | +4.62% | Medium | #32 of 495 | 80% | 10 |
| Sep 30 | KHC Kraft Heinz | RSI 28.2, -3.1% on the day | +1.77% | Medium | #387 of 495 | 73% | 11 |
| Sep 30 | LQDA | RSI 20.2, -57.2% on the day | +17.32% | Low | #171 of 495 | 75% | 4 |
| Sep 30 | NAMM | RSI 28.3, -4.7% on the day | -11.71% | Low | #302 of 495 | 40% | 5 |
| Sep 30 | NOC Northrop Grumman | RSI 26.8, -4.2% on the day | +3.32% | Medium | #176 of 495 | 62% | 8 |
| Sep 30 | OKE Oneok | RSI 28.3, -1.8% on the day | +6.73% | Low | #24 of 495 | 71% | 7 |
| Sep 30 | PEG Public Service Enterprise … | RSI 29.8, -0.5% on the day | -0.79% | Medium | #447 of 495 | 50% | 8 |
| Sep 30 | PLD Prologis | RSI 30.0, -2.1% on the day | -2.07% | Medium | #357 of 495 | 45% | 11 |
| Sep 30 | SO Southern Company | RSI 28.5, -0.7% on the day | +2.83% | Low | #193 of 495 | 83% | 6 |
| Sep 30 | UDR UDR, Inc. | RSI 27.0, -1.2% on the day | +2.16% | Medium | #248 of 495 | 64% | 14 |
| Sep 29 | CASY Casey's | RSI 29.5, -1.1% on the day | +8.20% | Low | #31 of 495 | 100% | 3 |
| Sep 29 | CINF Cincinnati Financial | RSI 28.6, -0.5% on the day | +2.20% | Medium | #242 of 495 | 62% | 8 |
| Sep 29 | CPRT Copart | RSI 30.0, -0.3% on the day | +0.49% | Medium | #393 of 495 | 55% | 11 |
| Sep 29 | SNA Snap-on | RSI 29.7, -0.6% on the day | +8.20% | Low | #1 of 495 | 100% | 3 |
| Sep 29 | TTD | RSI 29.4, -2.4% on the day | +2.59% | Medium | #226 of 495 | 71% | 17 |
| Sep 28 | AWK American Water Works | RSI 28.7, -1.5% on the day | +1.03% | Medium | #412 of 495 | 62% | 13 |
| Sep 28 | BA Boeing | RSI 27.4, -6.9% on the day | +7.27% | Medium | #9 of 495 | 81% | 16 |
| Sep 28 | CBOE Cboe Global Markets | RSI 30.0, -1.9% on the day | +2.68% | Low | #234 of 495 | 67% | 3 |
| Sep 28 | DASH DoorDash | RSI 29.8, -7.7% on the day | -3.95% | Medium | #338 of 495 | 36% | 11 |
| Sep 28 | EIX Edison International | RSI 28.6, -2.2% on the day | -0.56% | Medium | #395 of 495 | 43% | 14 |
| Sep 28 | FDXF FedEx Freight | RSI 30.0, -0.8% on the day | — | — | |||
| Sep 28 | HSY Hershey Company (The) | RSI 29.9, -1.2% on the day | -0.15% | Medium | #394 of 495 | 50% | 12 |
| Sep 28 | MS Morgan Stanley | RSI 29.4, -1.4% on the day | +2.29% | Low | #239 of 495 | 57% | 7 |
| Sep 28 | OPEN | RSI 29.0, -5.5% on the day | -10.18% | Medium | #349 of 495 | 43% | 14 |
| Sep 28 | SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | RSI 29.8, -0.7% on the day | -1.32% | Medium | #430 of 495 | 40% | 10 |
| Sep 28 | SRE Sempra | RSI 28.8, -1.3% on the day | +3.86% | Medium | #49 of 495 | 89% | 9 |
| Sep 28 | TLT | RSI 28.8, -0.9% on the day | +0.30% | Medium | #445 of 495 | 55% | 11 |
| Sep 28 | VICI Vici Properties | RSI 29.3, -1.4% on the day | +0.76% | Medium | #397 of 495 | 58% | 12 |
| Sep 28 | XYL Xylem Inc. | RSI 27.5, -1.7% on the day | -1.33% | Medium | #407 of 495 | 43% | 14 |
Best after an RSI oversold reading
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SNA Snap-on | +8.20%+7.3 to +10.6 | Low | +8.70% | 100% | +1.31% | +7% · +11% | 3 |
| 2 | ORLY O'Reilly Automotive | +7.46%+5.8 to +8.7 | Low | +5.58% | 86% | +6.52% | -5% · +9% | 7 |
| 3 | PM Philip Morris International | +7.47%+4.0 to +9.0 | Medium | +7.08% | 100% | +3.12% | +3% · +10% | 8 |
| 4 | WM Waste Management | +6.42%+6.0 to +6.8 | Low | +4.12% | 86% | +3.02% | -7% · +7% | 7 |
| 5 | AMAT Applied Materials | +8.62%+5.5 to +9.6 | Low | +9.22% | 100% | +3.61% | +6% · +14% | 4 |
| 6 | TXN Texas Instruments | +6.19%+5.9 to +8.5 | Low | +5.47% | 86% | +1.39% | -2% · +9% | 7 |
| 7 | ABNB Airbnb | +10.12%+3.8 to +11.3 | Medium | +7.90% | 90% | +3.48% | -13% · +18% | 10 |
| 8 | TXT Textron | +4.43%+3.0 to +5.4 | Low | +4.64% | 100% | -0.76% | +1% · +10% | 6 |
| 9 | BA Boeing | +7.27%+3.8 to +8.2 | Medium | +6.14% | 81% | +3.91% | -17% · +36% | 16 |
| 10 | MSCI MSCI | +7.44%+3.9 to +9.8 | Medium | +6.49% | 89% | +3.19% | -3% · +13% | 9 |
| 11 | COR Cencora | +6.62%+2.8 to +6.6 | Medium | +6.00% | 100% | +5.12% | +1% · +11% | 8 |
| 12 | VLTO Veralto | +4.38%+3.2 to +7.4 | Low | +5.34% | 100% | +2.45% | +2% · +10% | 6 |
| 13 | PANW Palo Alto Networks | +13.12%+6.0 to +16.1 | Medium | +11.60% | 90% | +10.48% | -2% · +23% | 10 |
| 14 | COP ConocoPhillips | +6.12%+1.6 to +8.1 | Low | +5.58% | 86% | +3.18% | -2% · +15% | 7 |
| 15 | HON Honeywell Technologies | +3.84%+2.4 to +5.5 | Medium | +4.49% | 90% | -0.11% | -1% · +10% | 10 |
| 16 | ERIE Erie Indemnity | +4.23%+2.3 to +4.7 | Medium | +2.13% | 80% | +0.71% | -10% · +7% | 10 |
| 17 | CRH CRH plc | +6.65%+4.8 to +7.3 | Medium | +6.10% | 88% | +2.23% | -1% · +13% | 8 |
| 18 | ADM Archer Daniels Midland | +5.39%+1.5 to +7.6 | Medium | +4.84% | 82% | +0.33% | -4% · +14% | 11 |
| 19 | COST Costco | +5.14%+2.8 to +6.6 | Low | +5.39% | 86% | +3.59% | -5% · +16% | 7 |
| 20 | DVN Devon Energy | +4.37%+1.8 to +5.1 | Medium | +4.55% | 89% | -0.03% | -1% · +11% | 9 |
| 21 | APO Apollo Global Management | +5.93%+3.9 to +8.0 | Medium | +6.09% | 83% | +4.93% | -12% · +19% | 12 |
| 22 | LUV Southwest Airlines | +4.56%+2.6 to +5.2 | Medium | +3.94% | 73% | -0.84% | -11% · +22% | 15 |
| 23 | HST Host Hotels & … | +6.34%+3.9 to +10.2 | Medium | +6.78% | 82% | +2.64% | -4% · +17% | 11 |
| 24 | OKE Oneok | +6.73%-0.2 to +8.0 | Low | +7.03% | 71% | +0.12% | -1% · +18% | 7 |
| 25 | IBM IBM | +6.80%+3.3 to +9.7 | Medium | +6.92% | 92% | +2.72% | -6% · +16% | 12 |
Worst after an RSI oversold reading
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JNJ Johnson & Johnson | -1.89%-4.4 to -1.7 | Medium | -1.35% | 18% | -2.26% | -6% · +12% | 11 |
| 2 | LOW Lowe's | -0.39%-1.1 to -0.1 | Medium | +0.40% | 33% | -0.89% | -11% · +10% | 12 |
| 3 | ABBV AbbVie | -0.26%-0.6 to +1.0 | Medium | +0.78% | 30% | -2.04% | -5% · +9% | 10 |
| 4 | WTW Willis Towers Watson | +0.10%-1.4 to +0.4 | Medium | +0.99% | 50% | -0.30% | -3% · +8% | 8 |
| 5 | MCD McDonald's | -0.04%-0.9 to +1.6 | Medium | +0.30% | 50% | -1.42% | -8% · +8% | 12 |
| 6 | WDAY Workday, Inc. | -2.47%-4.2 to +0.1 | Medium | -1.62% | 38% | -1.71% | -26% · +14% | 16 |
| 7 | CSGP CoStar Group | -5.38%-5.8 to -2.0 | Medium | -2.83% | 32% | -4.10% | -23% · +26% | 19 |
| 8 | ARE Alexandria Real Estate … | -6.81%-12.4 to -6.5 | Medium | -8.31% | 17% | -5.58% | -29% · +4% | 12 |
| 9 | HRL Hormel Foods | -1.17%-2.1 to +0.3 | Medium | -0.03% | 41% | -1.95% | -9% · +10% | 17 |
| 10 | LULU Lululemon Athletica | -5.15%-7.4 to -2.2 | Medium | -4.60% | 25% | -6.88% | -26% · +14% | 16 |
| 11 | ALB Albemarle Corporation | -5.52%-8.6 to -1.0 | Medium | -2.97% | 28% | -6.50% | -17% · +20% | 18 |
| 12 | FAST Fastenal | -2.11%-3.6 to +1.3 | Medium | -1.27% | 30% | -2.68% | -8% · +8% | 10 |
| 13 | DHR Danaher Corporation | -1.40%-2.1 to +2.1 | Medium | +0.47% | 36% | -2.55% | -5% · +10% | 11 |
| 14 | CTSH Cognizant | -0.15%-2.0 to +1.1 | Medium | -0.05% | 47% | -1.73% | -11% · +17% | 15 |
| 15 | BF-B Brown–Forman | -2.36%-3.1 to +1.5 | Medium | +0.46% | 38% | -6.36% | -12% · +27% | 13 |
| 16 | GIS General Mills | -1.98%-4.3 to -1.3 | Medium | -1.52% | 29% | -6.28% | -11% · +12% | 14 |
| 17 | ULTA Ulta Beauty | -2.10%-4.3 to +0.8 | Medium | +0.69% | 38% | -1.42% | -10% · +24% | 13 |
| 18 | HD Home Depot (The) | -0.56%-2.4 to +0.9 | Medium | -0.13% | 45% | -2.53% | -7% · +8% | 11 |
| 19 | AOS A. O. Smith | -1.43%-3.2 to +2.3 | Medium | +0.38% | 38% | -3.84% | -9% · +12% | 13 |
| 20 | ACN Accenture | -1.73%-4.5 to +1.1 | Medium | -0.46% | 43% | -2.20% | -10% · +13% | 14 |
| 21 | EXE Expand Energy | -2.55%-4.9 to +0.9 | Medium | -1.07% | 38% | -3.82% | -7% · +7% | 8 |
| 22 | A Agilent Technologies | -2.20%-3.3 to +0.4 | Medium | +0.35% | 38% | -3.18% | -10% · +26% | 13 |
| 23 | BIIB Biogen | -1.40%-3.5 to -0.6 | Medium | -0.06% | 33% | -4.11% | -6% · +11% | 15 |
| 24 | MCK McKesson Corporation | -4.07%-7.6 to +2.1 | Low | -2.31% | 40% | -9.39% | -8% · +4% | 5 |
| 25 | ROP Roper Technologies | +0.91%-0.4 to +2.4 | Medium | +0.09% | 60% | -0.32% | -24% · +16% | 15 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next month from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.