ULTA
Moving with the market
- ULTA +1.11% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | 0.0%#371 H | +0.5%#122 H | +1.5%#139 H | +2.3%#241 M |
| Big drop (-2.3% or worse) | 61 | 0.0%#285 H | +1.5%#34 H | +0.5%#270 H | +3.5%#243 M |
| Big gain (+2.4% or better) | 66 | 0.0%#340 H | +0.3%#282 H | +3.8%#33 H | +7.3%#150 M |
| Earnings beat | 18 | -0.3%#333 M | 0.0%#352 M | +0.7%#304 M | +4.5%#130 M |
| Earnings miss | 2 | -0.9%– | +3.5%– | +3.5%– | -1.6%– |
| 52-week high | 13 | -0.6%#379 M | -0.1%#322 M | +0.4%#265 M | -1.9%#260 M |
| 52-week low | 4 | +1.6%#102 L | +3.2%#86 L | +5.6%#31 L | +23.0%#41 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 9 | -0.4%#300 M | -1.6%#352 M | -1.2%#398 M | 0.0%#266 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 11 | -1.2%#441 M | -1.1%#451 M | -1.6%#378 M | -2.2%#377 L |
| RSI oversold | 13 | +0.4%#157 M | +1.6%#55 M | -2.1%#479 M | +4.6%#314 M |
| RSI overbought | 17 | -0.3%#359 M | -1.1%#470 M | +1.4%#195 M | 0.0%#266 M |
| Reddit spike | 9 | +0.3%#39 M | +0.2%#55 M | -0.5%#63 L | +1.9%#51 L |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is ULTA's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI oversold
The 14-day RSI falls below 30.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 13 | +0.35% (-1.2 to +0.6) | Medium | #157 of 496 | 62% | +0.27% |
-4%
+4%
|
|
| 1 week | 13 | +1.61% (+0.2 to +2.5) | Medium | #55 of 496 | 69% | +1.79% |
-7%
+8%
|
|
| 1 month | 13 ≈12 indep. | -2.10% (-4.3 to +0.8) | Medium | #479 of 495 | 38% | -1.42% |
-10%
+24%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 13 ≈10 indep. | +4.64% (-4.5 to +7.5) | Medium | #314 of 493 | 62% | +0.33% |
-14%
+36%
|
Range of outcomes: all of ULTA's oversold readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI oversold by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 12 | +0.3%M vs 0.0% | +1.4%M vs +0.5% | -2.6%M vs +1.2% | +3.2%M vs +5.1% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
| Below its 50-day avg | 13 | +0.4%M vs 0.0% | +1.6%M vs +0.3% | -2.1%M vs +1.3% | +4.6%M vs +5.7% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 13 | +0.4%M vs 0.0% | +1.6%M vs +0.1% | -2.1%M vs +0.8% | +4.6%M vs +3.8% |
The same event split by where ULTA stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest oversold readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | May 18 @ $479.87 | RSI 29.0, -2.9% on the day | +0.4% | +7.5% | -6.1% | +7.7% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Mar 13 @ $535.72 | RSI 21.2, -14.2% on the day | -3.5% | -1.1% | -0.5% | -12.7% |
| Mar 3, 2025 | Mar 3 @ $348.86 | RSI 28.4, -4.8% on the day | -1.6% | +1.6% | +7.2% | +36.4% |
| Feb 7, 2025 | Feb 7 @ $374.79 | RSI 29.0, -6.7% on the day | +0.4% | -2.6% | -8.6% | +4.6% |
| Nov 19, 2024 | Nov 19 @ $342.17 | RSI 29.5, -3.2% on the day | +0.3% | +5.3% | +24.4% | +6.3% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | Aug 1 @ $349.95 | RSI 29.7, -4.1% on the day | -2.6% | -6.5% | +0.8% | +7.5% |
| May 20, 2024 | May 20 @ $386.50 | RSI 27.6, -3.3% on the day | -1.2% | -1.4% | -2.1% | -4.5% |
| Apr 3, 2024 | Apr 3 @ $439.98 | RSI 22.8, -15.3% on the day | +2.0% | +2.5% | -9.7% | -11.4% |
| Sep 26, 2023 | Sep 26 @ $389.72 | RSI 28.8, -2.2% on the day | +0.7% | +1.2% | -3.0% | +22.5% |
| Aug 25, 2023 | Aug 25 @ $407.15 | RSI 29.5, -3.7% on the day | +0.9% | +2.2% | -4.3% | +1.9% |
| Aug 3, 2023 | Aug 3 @ $435.74 | RSI 29.5, -0.6% on the day | +0.6% | +2.7% | -4.5% | -13.8% |
| May 26, 2023 | May 26 @ $420.27 | RSI 20.2, -13.4% on the day | -1.9% | +0.2% | +9.9% | -2.2% |
| Jan 21, 2022 | Jan 21 @ $349.42 | RSI 29.0, -2.7% on the day | +4.4% | +2.7% | +5.4% | +16.3% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.