Aftermath
After a big gain, over the next day
A daily rise among the stock's own best 10% of the prior 2 years. So "big" depends on the stock: a quiet stock's big day is a volatile stock's normal one; each stock's own line is shown under its name. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.10% over the next day after a big gain (half of them between -0.04% and +0.26%), against +0.06% on any day.
Latest big gains, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 day | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | ARM | +5.2% on the day (line +4.7%) | +1.17% | High | #185 of 500 | 55% | 29 |
| Oct 2 | AWK American Water Works | +1.9% on the day (line +1.7%) | +0.04% | High | #326 of 500 | 53% | 62 |
| Oct 2 | BRUN | +3.9% on the day (line +3.8%) | -1.43% | Medium | #260 of 500 | 44% | 16 |
| Oct 2 | CNC Centene Corporation | +3.3% on the day (line +3.1%) | -0.35% | High | #461 of 500 | 39% | 74 |
| Oct 2 | CNP CenterPoint Energy | +1.6% on the day (line +1.4%) | +0.18% | High | #137 of 500 | 55% | 60 |
| Oct 2 | CSCO Cisco | +3.6% on the day (line +2.0%) | -0.11% | High | #481 of 500 | 43% | 65 |
| Oct 2 | CSX CSX Corporation | +1.9% on the day (line +1.7%) | +0.02% | High | #372 of 500 | 50% | 60 |
| Oct 2 | DE Deere & Company | +3.0% on the day (line +2.2%) | +0.30% | High | #12 of 500 | 63% | 62 |
| Oct 2 | ECHO EchoStar | +6.8% on the day (line +4.3%) | -0.60% | High | #344 of 500 | 47% | 72 |
| Oct 2 | FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +4.0% on the day (line +3.4%) | +0.18% | High | #219 of 500 | 54% | 63 |
| Oct 2 | IBRX | +10.8% on the day (line +7.2%) | -1.73% | High | #376 of 500 | 38% | 58 |
| Oct 2 | JBHT J.B. Hunt | +3.1% on the day (line +2.7%) | +0.32% | High | #41 of 500 | 59% | 69 |
| Oct 2 | LIN Linde plc | +2.1% on the day (line +1.4%) | +0.12% | High | #214 of 500 | 56% | 52 |
| Oct 2 | MNST Monster Beverage | +1.9% on the day (line +1.7%) | +0.22% | High | #45 of 500 | 62% | 60 |
| Oct 2 | MPWR Monolithic Power Systems | +5.8% on the day (line +4.3%) | +0.06% | High | #264 of 500 | 52% | 64 |
| Oct 2 | NSC Norfolk Southern | +2.3% on the day (line +1.6%) | -0.01% | High | #380 of 500 | 49% | 59 |
| Oct 2 | NTAP NetApp | +5.2% on the day (line +2.6%) | -0.31% | High | #395 of 500 | 45% | 65 |
| Oct 2 | P Everpure | +4.5% on the day (line +4.1%) | +0.47% | High | #69 of 500 | 64% | 70 |
| Oct 2 | ROK Rockwell Automation | +2.7% on the day (line +2.1%) | +0.02% | High | #321 of 500 | 50% | 62 |
| Oct 2 | RSG Republic Services | +1.6% on the day (line +1.4%) | +0.04% | High | #375 of 500 | 53% | 62 |
| Oct 2 | TER Teradyne | +8.0% on the day (line +4.5%) | -0.23% | High | #312 of 500 | 48% | 71 |
| Oct 2 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +4.7% on the day (line +4.1%) | -0.06% | High | #324 of 500 | 48% | 60 |
| Oct 2 | TSN Tyson Foods | +2.8% on the day (line +1.6%) | +0.62% | High | #53 of 500 | 58% | 67 |
| Oct 2 | UNP Union Pacific Corporation | +2.1% on the day (line +1.5%) | +0.23% | High | #151 of 500 | 52% | 61 |
| Oct 2 | VXUS | +1.1% on the day (line +1.1%) | +0.16% | High | #99 of 500 | 58% | 55 |
| Oct 1 | ACGL Arch Capital Group | +2.1% on the day (line +1.7%) | +0.20% | High | #130 of 500 | 55% | 64 |
| Oct 1 | ADP Automatic Data Processing | +2.3% on the day (line +1.5%) | -0.28% | High | #494 of 500 | 36% | 58 |
| Oct 1 | APA APA Corporation | +4.3% on the day (line +3.7%) | -0.11% | High | #325 of 500 | 49% | 63 |
| Oct 1 | BA Boeing | +3.4% on the day (line +2.5%) | -0.04% | High | #388 of 500 | 49% | 59 |
| Oct 1 | CAH Cardinal Health | +3.6% on the day (line +1.9%) | +0.20% | High | #149 of 500 | 56% | 61 |
| Oct 1 | CAPS | +7.1% on the day (line +6.5%) | -1.76% | High | #379 of 500 | 24% | 46 |
| Oct 1 | CB Chubb Limited | +1.9% on the day (line +1.5%) | +0.09% | High | #281 of 500 | 53% | 60 |
| Oct 1 | CDNS Cadence Design Systems | +6.2% on the day (line +2.6%) | +0.47% | High | #79 of 500 | 56% | 61 |
| Oct 1 | CDW CDW Corporation | +6.0% on the day (line +2.4%) | -0.01% | High | #317 of 500 | 49% | 67 |
| Oct 1 | CHRW C.H. Robinson | +3.5% on the day (line +2.1%) | +0.22% | High | #128 of 500 | 56% | 70 |
| Oct 1 | CIEN Ciena | +7.8% on the day (line +5.2%) | +0.66% | High | #9 of 500 | 62% | 81 |
| Oct 1 | CINF Cincinnati Financial | +1.7% on the day (line +1.7%) | +0.03% | High | #371 of 500 | 50% | 68 |
| Oct 1 | COHR Coherent Corp. | +10.9% on the day (line +6.0%) | +0.83% | High | #92 of 500 | 58% | 79 |
| Oct 1 | COR Cencora | +3.2% on the day (line +1.8%) | +0.03% | High | #356 of 500 | 50% | 62 |
| Oct 1 | CRM Salesforce | +3.1% on the day (line +2.8%) | +0.27% | High | #135 of 500 | 60% | 60 |
| Oct 1 | CTSH Cognizant | +6.0% on the day (line +2.0%) | +0.09% | High | #259 of 500 | 52% | 73 |
| Oct 1 | DRI Darden Restaurants | +2.1% on the day (line +2.0%) | -0.14% | High | #419 of 500 | 47% | 58 |
| Oct 1 | EMR Emerson Electric | +2.2% on the day (line +2.1%) | +0.09% | High | #258 of 500 | 51% | 70 |
| Oct 1 | EOG EOG Resources | +2.6% on the day (line +2.2%) | -0.08% | High | #353 of 500 | 50% | 52 |
| Oct 1 | EQT EQT Corporation | +3.1% on the day (line +2.6%) | +0.12% | High | #226 of 500 | 52% | 48 |
| Oct 1 | FICO Fair Isaac | +11.7% on the day (line +2.9%) | +0.15% | High | #199 of 500 | 54% | 68 |
| Oct 1 | FTV Fortive | +1.9% on the day (line +1.8%) | +0.01% | High | #329 of 500 | 51% | 65 |
| Oct 1 | GM General Motors | +3.0% on the day (line +2.6%) | +0.06% | High | #298 of 500 | 51% | 61 |
| Oct 1 | GWW W. W. Grainger | +2.9% on the day (line +1.6%) | -0.11% | High | #472 of 500 | 44% | 61 |
| Oct 1 | HAS Hasbro | +2.6% on the day (line +2.0%) | +0.18% | High | #159 of 500 | 54% | 67 |
| Oct 1 | HIG Hartford (The) | +2.8% on the day (line +1.5%) | +0.01% | High | #439 of 500 | 52% | 67 |
| Oct 1 | HPQ HP Inc. | +2.8% on the day (line +2.6%) | -0.15% | High | #355 of 500 | 45% | 64 |
| Oct 1 | HUBB Hubbell Incorporated | +3.0% on the day (line +2.4%) | +0.24% | High | #102 of 500 | 54% | 67 |
| Oct 1 | IBM IBM | +2.6% on the day (line +2.2%) | +0.09% | High | #270 of 500 | 54% | 72 |
| Oct 1 | JBL Jabil | +4.5% on the day (line +3.1%) | +0.60% | High | #95 of 500 | 64% | 64 |
| Oct 1 | KEYS Keysight Technologies | +2.7% on the day (line +2.5%) | +0.40% | High | #18 of 500 | 61% | 61 |
| Oct 1 | LITE Lumentum | +7.7% on the day (line +6.9%) | +0.28% | High | #161 of 500 | 52% | 84 |
| Oct 1 | MCK McKesson Corporation | +5.3% on the day (line +1.9%) | +0.28% | High | #49 of 500 | 60% | 62 |
| Oct 1 | MPC Marathon Petroleum | +6.2% on the day (line +2.6%) | +0.05% | High | #276 of 500 | 51% | 63 |
| Oct 1 | NAMM | +35.7% on the day (line +6.8%) | -3.32% | Low | #294 of 500 | 25% | 4 |
Best after a big gain
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IWM meme (+1.5% or better) | +0.61%+0.5 to +0.7 | High | +0.51% | 73% | +0.21% | -6% · +6% | 51 |
| 2 | VMC Vulcan Materials Company (+1.9% or better) | +0.60%+0.4 to +0.8 | High | +0.08% | 68% | +0.32% | -8% · +3% | 56 |
| 3 | TMUS T-Mobile US (+1.9% or better) | +0.27%+0.2 to +0.4 | High | +0.33% | 64% | -0.21% | -3% · +6% | 56 |
| 4 | DUK Duke Energy (+1.3% or better) | +0.32%+0.2 to +0.4 | High | +0.23% | 67% | +0.12% | -3% · +2% | 61 |
| 5 | ORCL Oracle Corporation (+3.5% or better) | +0.65%+0.5 to +0.9 | High | +0.71% | 64% | +0.35% | -6% · +10% | 76 |
| 6 | STT State Street Corporation (+1.9% or better) | +0.43%+0.2 to +0.6 | High | +0.29% | 62% | +0.35% | -4% · +3% | 61 |
| 7 | NDSN Nordson Corporation (+1.9% or better) | +0.42%+0.1 to +0.6 | High | +0.44% | 63% | +0.18% | -3% · +4% | 63 |
| 8 | TSCO Tractor Supply (+2.1% or better) | +0.37%+0.1 to +0.5 | High | +0.27% | 60% | +0.18% | -4% · +5% | 67 |
| 9 | ES Eversource Energy (+1.6% or better) | +0.35%+0.2 to +0.4 | High | +0.31% | 58% | +0.26% | -2% · +3% | 67 |
| 10 | CIEN Ciena (+5.2% or better) | +0.66%+0.4 to +0.9 | High | +0.64% | 62% | +0.47% | -14% · +9% | 81 |
| 11 | ETR Entergy (+1.6% or better) | +0.36%+0.1 to +0.6 | High | +0.29% | 63% | +0.24% | -6% · +3% | 63 |
| 12 | WRB W. R. Berkley … (+1.6% or better) | +0.30%+0.1 to +0.4 | High | +0.34% | 66% | +0.32% | -3% · +8% | 68 |
| 13 | DE Deere & Company (+2.2% or better) | +0.30%+0.1 to +0.4 | High | +0.20% | 63% | +0.17% | -5% · +4% | 62 |
| 14 | WDC Western Digital (+5.2% or better) | +0.49%+0.2 to +0.6 | High | +0.58% | 62% | +0.39% | -10% · +10% | 78 |
| 15 | KHC Kraft Heinz (+2.0% or better) | +0.41%+0.2 to +0.6 | High | +0.45% | 59% | +0.37% | -4% · +4% | 69 |
| 16 | OKE Oneok (+2.1% or better) | +0.55%+0.2 to +0.8 | High | +0.27% | 64% | +0.35% | -4% · +4% | 58 |
| 17 | VST Vistra Corp. (+4.3% or better) | +1.12%+0.4 to +1.4 | High | +0.68% | 66% | +0.95% | -12% · +9% | 71 |
| 18 | T AT&T (+1.7% or better) | +0.28%+0.1 to +0.4 | High | +0.18% | 58% | +0.22% | -4% · +4% | 67 |
| 19 | KEYS Keysight Technologies (+2.6% or better) | +0.40%+0.1 to +0.7 | High | +0.34% | 61% | +0.14% | -7% · +10% | 61 |
| 20 | APO Apollo Global Management (+2.9% or better) | +0.54%+0.1 to +0.7 | High | +0.58% | 63% | +0.43% | -5% · +10% | 54 |
| 21 | PRU Prudential Financial (+1.7% or better) | +0.32%0.0 to +0.5 | High | +0.01% | 61% | +0.15% | -5% · +3% | 66 |
| 22 | PPL PPL Corporation (+1.4% or better) | +0.40%0.0 to +0.5 | High | +0.12% | 57% | +0.15% | -2% · +2% | 61 |
| 23 | MO Altria (+1.6% or better) | +0.23%0.0 to +0.4 | High | +0.18% | 64% | +0.07% | -3% · +3% | 70 |
| 24 | GRMN Garmin (+2.0% or better) | +0.27%+0.1 to +0.4 | High | +0.34% | 60% | +0.04% | -5% · +16% | 63 |
| 25 | SPY meme (+1.0% or better) | +0.23%+0.1 to +0.3 | High | +0.10% | 62% | 0.00% | -4% · +2% | 48 |
Worst after a big gain
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BRO Brown & Brown (+1.9% or better) | -0.52%-0.7 to -0.3 | High | -0.61% | 32% | -0.76% | -13% · +4% | 60 |
| 2 | AIZ Assurant (+1.7% or better) | -0.26%-0.4 to -0.1 | High | -0.21% | 40% | -0.30% | -4% · +5% | 63 |
| 3 | PKG Packaging Corporation of … (+1.9% or better) | -0.40%-0.6 to -0.3 | High | -0.39% | 36% | -0.48% | -5% · +9% | 64 |
| 4 | MSI Motorola Solutions (+1.6% or better) | -0.18%-0.2 to 0.0 | High | -0.10% | 42% | -0.18% | -4% · +2% | 53 |
| 5 | NVR NVR, Inc. (+2.1% or better) | -0.60%-0.8 to -0.3 | High | -0.53% | 36% | -0.61% | -6% · +4% | 64 |
| 6 | AVY Avery Dennison (+1.6% or better) | -0.17%-0.3 to -0.1 | High | -0.10% | 39% | -0.07% | -3% · +4% | 64 |
| 7 | ADP Automatic Data Processing (+1.5% or better) | -0.28%-0.5 to -0.2 | High | -0.18% | 36% | -0.30% | -2% · +4% | 58 |
| 8 | UDR UDR, Inc. (+1.5% or better) | -0.14%-0.2 to 0.0 | High | +0.07% | 41% | -0.12% | -4% · +3% | 63 |
| 9 | AOS A. O. Smith (+1.9% or better) | -0.42%-0.7 to -0.2 | High | -0.38% | 36% | -0.36% | -6% · +4% | 61 |
| 10 | IEX IDEX Corporation (+1.8% or better) | -0.25%-0.4 to 0.0 | High | -0.21% | 42% | -0.52% | -5% · +5% | 64 |
| 11 | IDXX Idexx Laboratories (+2.0% or better) | -0.51%-0.8 to -0.3 | High | -0.30% | 39% | -0.16% | -6% · +7% | 57 |
| 12 | FISV Fiserv (+2.1% or better) | -0.49%-0.7 to -0.1 | High | -0.33% | 37% | -0.48% | -4% · +3% | 65 |
| 13 | SNA Snap-on (+1.6% or better) | -0.15%-0.3 to 0.0 | High | -0.13% | 39% | -0.27% | -3% · +2% | 61 |
| 14 | PEP PepsiCo (+1.5% or better) | -0.24%-0.5 to -0.1 | High | -0.22% | 43% | -0.22% | -3% · +4% | 68 |
| 15 | HRL Hormel Foods (+1.7% or better) | -0.44%-0.6 to -0.1 | High | -0.23% | 42% | -0.24% | -3% · +3% | 69 |
| 16 | SWKS Skyworks Solutions (+2.7% or better) | -0.68%-0.8 to -0.1 | High | -0.63% | 39% | -0.56% | -11% · +5% | 57 |
| 17 | PCAR Paccar (+2.2% or better) | -0.27%-0.5 to 0.0 | High | +0.07% | 43% | -0.10% | -5% · +9% | 70 |
| 18 | TRV Travelers Companies (The) (+1.6% or better) | -0.19%-0.3 to 0.0 | High | +0.02% | 44% | -0.13% | -4% · +9% | 66 |
| 19 | FOX Fox Corporation (Class … (+2.0% or better) | -0.19%-0.4 to 0.0 | High | -0.32% | 40% | -0.39% | -10% · +5% | 63 |
| 20 | CSCO Cisco (+2.0% or better) | -0.11%-0.3 to +0.1 | High | -0.14% | 43% | -0.01% | -8% · +3% | 65 |
| 21 | OMC Omnicom Group (+2.2% or better) | -0.24%-0.4 to -0.1 | High | -0.28% | 36% | -0.12% | -5% · +3% | 66 |
| 22 | LLY Lilly (Eli) (+2.7% or better) | -0.26%-0.5 to +0.1 | High | -0.04% | 43% | -0.20% | -8% · +8% | 67 |
| 23 | SW Smurfit Westrock (+2.7% or better) | 0.00%-0.1 to 0.0 | High | -0.11% | 37% | -0.05% | -9% · +6% | 62 |
| 24 | BIIB Biogen (+2.4% or better) | -0.19%-0.3 to 0.0 | High | -0.24% | 44% | -0.28% | -8% · +2% | 75 |
| 25 | CF CF Industries (+2.7% or better) | -0.64%-0.8 to -0.2 | High | -0.31% | 37% | -0.60% | -10% · +13% | 59 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next day from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.