ARM
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ARM +5.18% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +4.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 2): After its 29 big gains in the past 5 years, ARM typically gained 1.2% over the next day (median) and was higher 55% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.2% and +4.1%. An ordinary day: +0.2%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #185 of 500.
- 0 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 85% positive over the week.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 766 | +0.2%#182 H | +1.0%#106 H | +4.4%#117 H | +9.2%#110 M |
| Big drop (-4.8% or worse) | 34 | -0.5%#317 H | +1.2%#235 H | -1.4%#261 H | +4.7%#229 M |
| Big gain latest session (+4.8% or better) | 30 | +1.2%#185 H | -2.6%#335 H | +7.4%#181 M | +6.0%#220 L |
| Earnings beat | 11 | -1.1%#324 M | +5.2%#189 M | +9.4%#133 M | +15.9%#108 M |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 2 | +4.4%– | +18.0%– | +34.4%– | +10.9%– |
| 52-week low | 1 | +24.2%– | +21.0%– | +35.8%– | +73.1%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | +0.9%#126 L | +0.3%#256 L | +1.7%#242 L | +5.3%#227 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 8 | +0.4%#234 M | +0.9%#237 M | +8.1%#135 M | +10.8%#182 L |
| RSI oversold | 5 | -2.6%#323 L | +2.8%#193 L | +13.3%#209 L | +47.8%#115 L |
| RSI overbought | 14 | -0.3%#266 M | -0.7%#240 M | +2.3%#236 M | -9.9%#333 M |
| Reddit spike | 22 | +0.8%#13 H | +0.1%#47 H | +3.1%#37 M | +3.4%#41 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 2 | -2.0%– | -4.5%– | +23.7%– | +119.7%– |
| Analyst downgrade | 5 | -5.4%#9 L | +2.3%#5 L | +0.6%#5 L | +30.9%#2 L |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 5 | +4.8%#12 L | +33.4%#10 L | +17.2%– | -22.1%– |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is ARM's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big gain (+4.8% or better)
A daily rise among the stock's own best 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 29 | +1.17% (-1.4 to +1.2) | High | #185 of 500 | 55% | +0.46% |
-10%
+16%
|
|
| 1 week | 29 | -2.56% (-3.5 to -0.3) | High | #335 of 500 | 38% | -1.06% |
-20%
+31%
|
|
| 1 month | 28 ≈17 indep. | +7.36% (-8.9 to +10.7) | Medium | #181 of 500 | 61% | +5.88% |
-29%
+59%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 25 ≈7 indep. | +6.02% (-19.3 to +21.7) | Low | #220 of 499 | 56% | +1.68% |
-42%
+239%
|
Range of outcomes: all of ARM's big gains in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big gain by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 21 | -0.2%H vs +0.2% | -2.1%H vs -0.7% | +0.4%M vs -0.5% | -14.1%L vs -5.7% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 9 | +1.2%M vs +0.1% | -2.6%M vs +2.3% | +8.6%L vs +9.2% | +36.9%L vs +26.6% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 22 | +1.2%H vs +0.4% | -1.3%H vs +1.2% | +10.4%M vs +2.2% | -7.9%L vs +3.6% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 8 | +0.2%M vs +0.1% | -3.0%M vs +0.7% | +2.5%L vs +6.4% | +41.3%L vs +12.6% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 23 | +1.2%H vs +0.3% | -0.9%H vs +1.1% | +10.2%M vs +6.7% | -2.3%L vs +2.2% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 7 | -1.4%L vs +0.1% | -5.2%L vs +0.9% | -8.9%L vs +2.4% | +33.3%L vs +16.9% |
The same event split by where ARM stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big gains
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Oct 2 @ $307.49 | +5.2% on the day (line +4.7%) | … | … | … | … |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 17 @ $264.90 | +8.6% on the day (line +4.7%) | +4.0% | +15.6% | … | … |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Jul 30 @ $241.54 | +7.4% on the day (line +4.8%) | -0.8% | +18.7% | -1.0% | … |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Jul 21 @ $289.73 | +7.5% on the day (line +4.8%) | -2.2% | -15.5% | -13.9% | … |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Jul 9 @ $327.87 | +9.2% on the day (line +4.8%) | -1.4% | -20.1% | -13.8% | … |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Jun 11 @ $342.23 | +11.3% on the day (line +4.8%) | +11.3% | +28.4% | -17.8% | -22.6% |
| May 29, 2026 | May 29 @ $353.29 | +5.4% on the day (line +4.8%) | +15.7% | -2.9% | +0.4% | -32.3% |
| May 20, 2026 | May 20 @ $256.73 | +15.1% on the day (line +4.7%) | +16.2% | +30.6% | +58.8% | -2.3% |
| May 6, 2026 | May 6 @ $237.30 | +13.6% on the day (line +4.7%) | -10.1% | -6.8% | +44.5% | +20.8% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Apr 22 @ $196.57 | +12.0% on the day (line +4.7%) | +4.1% | +2.6% | +51.7% | +44.0% |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Apr 13 @ $157.58 | +5.8% on the day (line +4.6%) | +2.3% | +11.1% | +31.9% | +78.4% |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Mar 25 @ $157.07 | +16.4% on the day (line +4.6%) | -1.4% | -1.3% | +49.5% | +121.4% |
| Mar 16, 2026 | Mar 16 @ $121.70 | +5.1% on the day (line +4.6%) | +4.6% | +12.5% | +30.9% | +239.0% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Feb 5 @ $110.88 | +5.7% on the day (line +4.7%) | +11.6% | +10.2% | +6.1% | +92.4% |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Jan 21 @ $113.92 | +6.3% on the day (line +4.8%) | +4.6% | -3.5% | +10.2% | +72.6% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.