Aftermath
After a big gain, over the next month
A daily rise among the stock's own best 10% of the prior 2 years. So "big" depends on the stock: a quiet stock's big day is a volatile stock's normal one; each stock's own line is shown under its name. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +1.35% over the next month after a big gain (half of them between +0.38% and +2.51%), against +0.86% on any day.
Latest big gains, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 month | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | ARM | +5.2% on the day (line +4.7%) | +7.36% | Medium | #181 of 500 | 61% | 28 |
| Oct 2 | AWK American Water Works | +1.9% on the day (line +1.7%) | -0.31% | High | #485 of 500 | 48% | 62 |
| Oct 2 | BRUN | +3.9% on the day (line +3.8%) | -0.14% | Low | #221 of 500 | 50% | 14 |
| Oct 2 | CNC Centene Corporation | +3.3% on the day (line +3.1%) | +1.54% | High | #222 of 500 | 53% | 73 |
| Oct 2 | CNP CenterPoint Energy | +1.6% on the day (line +1.4%) | +1.65% | High | #203 of 500 | 63% | 60 |
| Oct 2 | CSCO Cisco | +3.6% on the day (line +2.0%) | +2.51% | High | #66 of 500 | 61% | 64 |
| Oct 2 | CSX CSX Corporation | +1.9% on the day (line +1.7%) | +1.78% | High | #170 of 500 | 67% | 60 |
| Oct 2 | DE Deere & Company | +3.0% on the day (line +2.2%) | -0.13% | High | #460 of 500 | 48% | 61 |
| Oct 2 | ECHO EchoStar | +6.8% on the day (line +4.3%) | -1.20% | High | #343 of 500 | 47% | 72 |
| Oct 2 | FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +4.0% on the day (line +3.4%) | +3.55% | High | #136 of 500 | 53% | 62 |
| Oct 2 | IBRX | +10.8% on the day (line +7.2%) | +0.54% | High | #236 of 500 | 51% | 57 |
| Oct 2 | JBHT J.B. Hunt | +3.1% on the day (line +2.7%) | 0.00% | High | #390 of 500 | 50% | 68 |
| Oct 2 | LIN Linde plc | +2.1% on the day (line +1.4%) | +1.87% | High | #147 of 500 | 67% | 51 |
| Oct 2 | MNST Monster Beverage | +1.9% on the day (line +1.7%) | +3.57% | High | #7 of 500 | 68% | 59 |
| Oct 2 | MPWR Monolithic Power Systems | +5.8% on the day (line +4.3%) | +1.22% | High | #250 of 500 | 56% | 63 |
| Oct 2 | NSC Norfolk Southern | +2.3% on the day (line +1.6%) | +1.13% | High | #300 of 500 | 58% | 59 |
| Oct 2 | NTAP NetApp | +5.2% on the day (line +2.6%) | +3.45% | High | #58 of 500 | 61% | 64 |
| Oct 2 | P Everpure | +4.5% on the day (line +4.1%) | +2.18% | High | #194 of 500 | 54% | 68 |
| Oct 2 | ROK Rockwell Automation | +2.7% on the day (line +2.1%) | +1.36% | High | #238 of 500 | 61% | 61 |
| Oct 2 | RSG Republic Services | +1.6% on the day (line +1.4%) | +1.46% | High | #247 of 500 | 61% | 61 |
| Oct 2 | TER Teradyne | +8.0% on the day (line +4.5%) | +6.04% | High | #22 of 500 | 67% | 69 |
| Oct 2 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +4.7% on the day (line +4.1%) | -1.95% | High | #332 of 500 | 47% | 60 |
| Oct 2 | TSN Tyson Foods | +2.8% on the day (line +1.6%) | +0.64% | High | #326 of 500 | 53% | 66 |
| Oct 2 | UNP Union Pacific Corporation | +2.1% on the day (line +1.5%) | -0.07% | High | #446 of 500 | 50% | 60 |
| Oct 2 | VXUS | +1.1% on the day (line +1.1%) | +2.90% | High | #3 of 500 | 74% | 54 |
| Oct 1 | ACGL Arch Capital Group | +2.1% on the day (line +1.7%) | +0.04% | High | #384 of 500 | 50% | 62 |
| Oct 1 | ADP Automatic Data Processing | +2.3% on the day (line +1.5%) | +1.30% | High | #258 of 500 | 59% | 56 |
| Oct 1 | APA APA Corporation | +4.3% on the day (line +3.7%) | +2.66% | High | #190 of 500 | 54% | 61 |
| Oct 1 | BA Boeing | +3.4% on the day (line +2.5%) | +0.27% | High | #318 of 500 | 53% | 57 |
| Oct 1 | CAH Cardinal Health | +3.6% on the day (line +1.9%) | +1.53% | High | #230 of 500 | 58% | 60 |
| Oct 1 | CAPS | +7.1% on the day (line +6.5%) | -16.55% | High | #491 of 500 | 16% | 44 |
| Oct 1 | CB Chubb Limited | +1.9% on the day (line +1.5%) | +0.08% | High | #492 of 500 | 52% | 58 |
| Oct 1 | CDNS Cadence Design Systems | +6.2% on the day (line +2.6%) | -0.02% | High | #312 of 500 | 49% | 59 |
| Oct 1 | CDW CDW Corporation | +6.0% on the day (line +2.4%) | -0.98% | High | #475 of 500 | 48% | 65 |
| Oct 1 | CHRW C.H. Robinson | +3.5% on the day (line +2.1%) | +1.23% | High | #267 of 500 | 56% | 68 |
| Oct 1 | CIEN Ciena | +7.8% on the day (line +5.2%) | +4.78% | High | #79 of 500 | 62% | 79 |
| Oct 1 | CINF Cincinnati Financial | +1.7% on the day (line +1.7%) | +0.84% | High | #409 of 500 | 56% | 66 |
| Oct 1 | COHR Coherent Corp. | +10.9% on the day (line +6.0%) | +6.24% | High | #87 of 500 | 63% | 76 |
| Oct 1 | COR Cencora | +3.2% on the day (line +1.8%) | +2.51% | High | #46 of 500 | 68% | 60 |
| Oct 1 | CRM Salesforce | +3.1% on the day (line +2.8%) | -0.18% | High | #342 of 500 | 50% | 58 |
| Oct 1 | CTSH Cognizant | +6.0% on the day (line +2.0%) | +0.89% | High | #290 of 500 | 55% | 71 |
| Oct 1 | DRI Darden Restaurants | +2.1% on the day (line +2.0%) | +1.73% | High | #191 of 500 | 68% | 56 |
| Oct 1 | EMR Emerson Electric | +2.2% on the day (line +2.1%) | +2.11% | High | #124 of 500 | 62% | 68 |
| Oct 1 | EOG EOG Resources | +2.6% on the day (line +2.2%) | -0.38% | High | #382 of 500 | 48% | 50 |
| Oct 1 | EQT EQT Corporation | +3.1% on the day (line +2.6%) | +1.02% | High | #279 of 500 | 57% | 47 |
| Oct 1 | FICO Fair Isaac | +11.7% on the day (line +2.9%) | +3.93% | High | #18 of 500 | 65% | 66 |
| Oct 1 | FTV Fortive | +1.9% on the day (line +1.8%) | +1.94% | High | #164 of 500 | 65% | 63 |
| Oct 1 | GM General Motors | +3.0% on the day (line +2.6%) | +2.56% | High | #74 of 500 | 64% | 58 |
| Oct 1 | GWW W. W. Grainger | +2.9% on the day (line +1.6%) | +2.66% | High | #108 of 500 | 64% | 59 |
| Oct 1 | HAS Hasbro | +2.6% on the day (line +2.0%) | +1.94% | High | #184 of 500 | 55% | 66 |
| Oct 1 | HIG Hartford (The) | +2.8% on the day (line +1.5%) | +2.03% | High | #83 of 500 | 68% | 65 |
| Oct 1 | HPQ HP Inc. | +2.8% on the day (line +2.6%) | +1.42% | High | #240 of 500 | 59% | 61 |
| Oct 1 | HUBB Hubbell Incorporated | +3.0% on the day (line +2.4%) | +2.21% | High | #159 of 500 | 58% | 66 |
| Oct 1 | IBM IBM | +2.6% on the day (line +2.2%) | +2.18% | High | #166 of 500 | 61% | 70 |
| Oct 1 | JBL Jabil | +4.5% on the day (line +3.1%) | +1.07% | High | #237 of 500 | 53% | 62 |
| Oct 1 | KEYS Keysight Technologies | +2.7% on the day (line +2.5%) | +2.51% | High | #126 of 500 | 61% | 59 |
| Oct 1 | LITE Lumentum | +7.7% on the day (line +6.9%) | +7.51% | High | #112 of 500 | 58% | 81 |
| Oct 1 | MCK McKesson Corporation | +5.3% on the day (line +1.9%) | +2.39% | High | #86 of 500 | 62% | 60 |
| Oct 1 | MPC Marathon Petroleum | +6.2% on the day (line +2.6%) | +2.11% | High | #149 of 500 | 64% | 61 |
| Oct 1 | NAMM | +35.7% on the day (line +6.8%) | — | — |
Best after a big gain
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HWM Howmet Aerospace (+2.6% or better) | +5.32%+3.7 to +5.7 | High | +5.85% | 75% | +2.03% | -10% · +36% | 61 |
| 2 | SPY meme (+1.0% or better) | +2.86%+2.2 to +3.1 | High | +2.35% | 83% | 0.00% | -7% · +11% | 46 |
| 3 | FFIV F5, Inc. (+2.4% or better) | +3.78%+2.5 to +4.5 | High | +3.17% | 73% | +1.61% | -28% · +26% | 62 |
| 4 | VXUS meme (+1.1% or better) | +2.90%+1.9 to +3.3 | High | +2.56% | 74% | -0.36% | -8% · +13% | 54 |
| 5 | NTRS Northern Trust (+1.9% or better) | +4.51%+2.3 to +5.3 | High | +4.12% | 75% | +0.21% | -12% · +18% | 56 |
| 6 | BNY BNY Mellon (+1.6% or better) | +4.99%+2.5 to +5.5 | High | +3.74% | 74% | +2.32% | -12% · +16% | 57 |
| 7 | NEM Newmont (+3.4% or better) | +4.79%+3.3 to +7.0 | High | +5.22% | 71% | +2.73% | -21% · +35% | 72 |
| 8 | STX Seagate Technology (+4.9% or better) | +6.62%+3.8 to +8.4 | High | +11.02% | 73% | +4.08% | -21% · +72% | 73 |
| 9 | MNST Monster Beverage (+1.7% or better) | +3.57%+2.2 to +4.7 | High | +2.57% | 68% | +0.42% | -11% · +16% | 59 |
| 10 | CRWD CrowdStrike (+3.8% or better) | +6.49%+4.8 to +8.9 | High | +5.29% | 71% | +5.21% | -22% · +45% | 59 |
| 11 | FITB Fifth Third Bancorp (+1.9% or better) | +4.27%+2.0 to +5.3 | High | +4.11% | 68% | -0.35% | -13% · +32% | 57 |
| 12 | SWK Stanley Black & … (+2.9% or better) | +5.03%+1.8 to +6.1 | High | +2.69% | 68% | +0.74% | -28% · +18% | 66 |
| 13 | GE GE Aerospace (+2.4% or better) | +4.29%+2.4 to +5.3 | High | +5.34% | 68% | +0.68% | -10% · +27% | 59 |
| 14 | VRSN Verisign (+1.8% or better) | +3.72%+2.6 to +4.5 | High | +2.36% | 66% | +0.53% | -14% · +15% | 59 |
| 15 | ROST Ross Stores (+1.8% or better) | +4.04%+1.6 to +5.1 | High | +3.33% | 72% | +0.64% | -10% · +25% | 57 |
| 16 | URI United Rentals (+2.4% or better) | +5.90%+3.2 to +8.4 | High | +5.49% | 71% | +3.43% | -14% · +24% | 55 |
| 17 | EQIX Equinix (+1.7% or better) | +2.55%+2.1 to +3.3 | High | +2.73% | 69% | +0.32% | -15% · +25% | 55 |
| 18 | IBKR Interactive Brokers (+3.2% or better) | +4.94%+2.5 to +6.2 | High | +3.90% | 67% | +1.81% | -27% · +30% | 66 |
| 19 | NWS News Corp (Class … (+1.8% or better) | +3.45%+1.8 to +4.4 | High | +1.61% | 64% | +0.78% | -21% · +14% | 56 |
| 20 | FICO Fair Isaac (+3.1% or better) | +3.93%+1.9 to +4.8 | High | +2.77% | 65% | +2.21% | -20% · +39% | 66 |
| 21 | VTRS Viatris (+2.3% or better) | +3.70%+2.1 to +5.0 | High | +3.73% | 70% | +0.55% | -22% · +24% | 61 |
| 22 | BAC Bank of America (+1.7% or better) | +3.77%+3.0 to +5.4 | High | +3.08% | 70% | +0.69% | -14% · +21% | 57 |
| 23 | MTB M&T Bank (+1.8% or better) | +4.31%+1.4 to +5.7 | High | +3.76% | 73% | +1.36% | -11% · +19% | 55 |
| 24 | TER Teradyne (+4.5% or better) | +6.04%+3.0 to +8.3 | High | +5.35% | 67% | +2.06% | -33% · +43% | 69 |
| 25 | DELL Dell Technologies (+4.2% or better) | +5.21%+3.2 to +7.6 | High | +7.45% | 67% | +3.79% | -20% · +69% | 78 |
Worst after a big gain
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PEP PepsiCo (+1.5% or better) | -0.69%-1.8 to -0.3 | High | -0.54% | 43% | -2.13% | -13% · +19% | 68 |
| 2 | INVH Invitation Homes (+1.6% or better) | -1.07%-2.0 to +0.9 | High | -0.23% | 44% | -2.60% | -9% · +12% | 66 |
| 3 | HRL Hormel Foods (+1.7% or better) | -2.44%-3.3 to -0.3 | High | -1.43% | 40% | -3.68% | -16% · +19% | 68 |
| 4 | BLGO meme (+5.6% or better) | -6.25%-9.1 to -5.3 | High | -3.97% | 22% | -7.37% | -26% · +50% | 69 |
| 5 | WEN meme (+3.0% or better) | -2.22%-3.3 to -0.5 | High | -1.47% | 39% | -3.75% | -24% · +25% | 72 |
| 6 | ZTS Zoetis (+1.8% or better) | -0.22%-1.5 to +0.4 | High | -0.82% | 48% | -1.58% | -36% · +16% | 65 |
| 7 | CSGP CoStar Group (+2.5% or better) | -2.41%-4.3 to -0.9 | High | -3.02% | 35% | -3.70% | -28% · +16% | 66 |
| 8 | GIS General Mills (+1.7% or better) | -1.70%-2.8 to +0.5 | High | -1.42% | 41% | -2.04% | -19% · +11% | 71 |
| 9 | FDS FactSet (+2.2% or better) | -0.84%-1.6 to +0.4 | High | -0.63% | 46% | -2.27% | -31% · +22% | 63 |
| 10 | TLT meme (+0.9% or better) | +0.08%-0.8 to +0.5 | High | +0.72% | 51% | -2.28% | -6% · +11% | 41 |
| 11 | BIIB Biogen (+2.4% or better) | -1.20%-2.4 to -0.3 | High | -0.02% | 39% | -2.67% | -19% · +19% | 74 |
| 12 | CB Chubb Limited (+1.5% or better) | +0.08%-0.4 to +1.1 | High | +0.71% | 52% | -1.54% | -9% · +9% | 58 |
| 13 | ROP Roper Technologies (+1.5% or better) | -0.55%-1.7 to +0.3 | High | +0.07% | 45% | -1.68% | -16% · +18% | 58 |
| 14 | CAPS meme (+6.8% or better) | -16.55%-19.1 to -10.4 | High | -14.40% | 16% | -16.55% | -51% · +25% | 44 |
| 15 | CTVA Corteva (+1.8% or better) | -0.62%-1.4 to +0.8 | High | +0.01% | 46% | -2.29% | -15% · +19% | 68 |
| 16 | MCD McDonald's (+1.3% or better) | -0.23%-1.1 to +1.0 | High | +0.31% | 48% | -1.61% | -11% · +11% | 61 |
| 17 | MSCI MSCI (+1.8% or better) | -0.71%-1.1 to +1.3 | High | +0.93% | 45% | -1.22% | -10% · +25% | 55 |
| 18 | AVY Avery Dennison (+1.6% or better) | -0.89%-2.4 to +0.2 | High | -0.51% | 44% | -2.02% | -16% · +14% | 64 |
| 19 | ZBH Zimmer Biomet (+1.9% or better) | -0.79%-1.3 to +1.1 | High | -0.36% | 46% | -4.29% | -13% · +15% | 59 |
| 20 | AWK American Water Works (+1.7% or better) | -0.31%-1.5 to +1.2 | High | +0.71% | 48% | -1.76% | -10% · +14% | 62 |
| 21 | AON Aon plc (+1.7% or better) | +0.04%-0.5 to +1.5 | High | +0.56% | 52% | -1.72% | -22% · +12% | 62 |
| 22 | CCI Crown Castle (+1.9% or better) | -1.12%-2.6 to +0.7 | High | -0.51% | 41% | -3.01% | -17% · +19% | 63 |
| 23 | MRK Merck & Co. (+2.0% or better) | -0.14%-1.4 to +0.7 | High | +0.90% | 49% | -0.20% | -16% · +20% | 71 |
| 24 | CHD Church & Dwight (+1.5% or better) | +0.46%-0.5 to +0.9 | High | +0.33% | 53% | -2.23% | -16% · +20% | 72 |
| 25 | PG Procter & Gamble (+1.4% or better) | +0.17%-0.9 to +1.3 | High | +0.58% | 50% | -1.81% | -10% · +12% | 62 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next month from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.