Moving with the market
- AAPL +1.02% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Sep 29): After its 55 big drops in the past 5 years, AAPL typically gained 2.9% over the next month (median) and was higher 62% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -0.9% and +8.3%. An ordinary month: +1.8%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #101 of 500.
- 2 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 73% positive over the week.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight, lowered target $360 → $355.
- 8 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#87 H | +0.4%#126 H | +1.8%#81 H | +4.3%#134 M |
| Big drop Sep 29 (-1.8% or worse) | 57 | +0.2%#159 H | +0.2%#308 H | +2.9%#101 H | +8.8%#32 M |
| Big gain (+2.0% or better) | 59 | +0.3%#50 H | +0.1%#321 H | +2.2%#97 H | +6.3%#99 M |
| Earnings beat | 18 | -0.6%#469 M | +0.6%#173 M | +2.2%#91 M | +2.6%#255 M |
| Earnings miss | 1 | -1.8%– | -2.1%– | -1.7%– | +12.5%– |
| 52-week high | 13 | +0.2%#30 M | +1.4%#137 M | +0.7%#254 M | -2.8%#422 M |
| 52-week low | 1 | +2.8%– | -0.8%– | +13.5%– | +29.0%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 8 | -0.7%#391 M | +0.6%#184 M | +2.2%#202 M | +9.8%#63 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 6 | +0.2%#222 L | +1.1%#176 L | +2.2%#222 L | +9.7%#141 L |
| RSI oversold | 9 | +0.5%#166 M | +1.4%#60 M | +5.2%#43 M | -1.2%#469 L |
| RSI overbought | 23 | +0.1%#136 H | +0.3%#127 H | +0.8%#203 H | +3.0%#138 M |
| Reddit spike | 103 | +0.2%#59 H | +0.8%#16 H | +1.7%#16 H | +4.4%#45 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 7 | -0.2%#13 L | +0.2%#12 L | +5.7%#4 L | +2.9%#5 L |
| Analyst downgrade | 6 | +0.8%#2 L | -1.1%#8 L | +5.7%#5 L | +17.2%– |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 4 | +1.8%#2 L | +0.1%#21 L | 0.0%#27 L | +3.9%#18 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is AAPL's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big gain (+2.0% or better)
A daily rise among the stock's own best 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 59 | +0.31% (+0.2 to +0.7) | High | #50 of 500 | 63% | +0.18% |
-4%
+4%
|
|
| 1 week | 59 | +0.09% (-0.3 to +1.8) | High | #321 of 500 | 58% | +0.52% |
-18%
+10%
|
|
| 1 month | 58 ≈35 indep. | +2.18% (+1.0 to +3.4) | High | #97 of 500 | 69% | +0.10% |
-12%
+20%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 53 ≈14 indep. | +6.33% (+2.2 to +8.4) | Medium | #99 of 499 | 68% | +1.35% |
-18%
+32%
|
Range of outcomes: all of AAPL's big gains in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big gain by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 42 | +0.4%H vs +0.1% | +0.1%H vs +0.7% | +2.9%H vs +1.9% | +4.5%M vs +3.6% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 17 | +0.2%M vs +0.2% | +0.3%M vs +0.3% | +0.7%M vs +1.8% | +9.1%L vs +11.9% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 35 | +0.3%H vs +0.1% | 0.0%H vs +0.3% | +2.4%H vs +1.5% | +7.3%M vs +2.5% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 24 | +0.4%H vs +0.2% | +0.9%H vs +0.5% | +1.7%M vs +1.8% | +4.9%M vs +6.7% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 42 | +0.4%H vs +0.1% | 0.0%H vs +0.7% | +1.6%H vs +1.2% | +7.6%M vs +2.7% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 17 | +0.2%M vs +0.1% | +0.4%M vs +0.2% | +4.9%M vs +2.2% | +3.7%M vs +6.3% |
The same event split by where AAPL stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big gains
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 10 @ $326.57 | +3.6% on the day (line +2.0%) | +1.7% | +3.2% | … | … |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Sep 1 @ $325.13 | +2.6% on the day (line +1.9%) | -0.1% | -3.0% | +1.6% | … |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Aug 19 @ $316.83 | +2.2% on the day (line +1.9%) | -1.7% | -1.1% | +6.1% | … |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Aug 4 @ $309.11 | +2.0% on the day (line +1.9%) | +0.5% | -1.4% | +5.1% | … |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Jul 24 @ $332.73 | +3.5% on the day (line +1.9%) | +1.2% | -7.2% | -6.7% | … |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Jul 15 @ $327.22 | +4.0% on the day (line +1.9%) | +1.8% | -0.5% | -6.7% | … |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Jun 26 @ $283.54 | +3.1% on the day (line +1.9%) | -0.7% | +10.2% | +19.8% | +20.3% |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Jun 2 @ $314.93 | +2.9% on the day (line +1.9%) | -1.6% | -7.8% | -2.1% | +3.2% |
| May 1, 2026 | May 1 @ $279.64 | +3.2% on the day (line +1.9%) | -1.2% | +4.7% | +12.6% | +8.4% |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Apr 15 @ $265.96 | +2.9% on the day (line +1.9%) | -1.1% | +2.5% | +12.0% | +25.2% |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Mar 31 @ $253.34 | +2.9% on the day (line +1.9%) | +0.7% | +2.0% | +6.9% | +16.1% |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Feb 17 @ $263.41 | +3.2% on the day (line +1.8%) | +0.2% | +3.1% | -5.3% | +13.0% |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Feb 4 @ $275.74 | +2.6% on the day (line +1.8%) | -0.2% | -0.3% | -6.8% | +4.1% |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Jan 26 @ $254.72 | +3.0% on the day (line +1.8%) | +1.1% | +5.7% | +7.5% | +4.9% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Nov 21 @ $270.75 | +2.0% on the day (line +1.8%) | +1.6% | +4.3% | +0.3% | +1.1% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.