ADP
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ADP +2.78% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: +2.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (RSI 71 today so far, above 70): After its 16 overbought readings in the past 5 years, ADP was higher a week later 13 times out of 16; half the outcomes fell between +0.5% and +2.0%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ADP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
284.22 +1.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
289.13 +3.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 288.10 · prior close 280.32 | |
| Bargain buy side |
276.47 -1.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
271.78 -3.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 275.23 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 285.50 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 276.47 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 284.22 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 277.63 | 4 in 10 days | 283.04 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 269.07 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 292.04 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 271.78 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 289.13 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 274.34 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 286.43 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ADP's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | +2.3% | +2.6% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | +3.1% | -2.4% | -0.3% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | +2.6% | +1.1% | +0.8% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | +3.0% | +6.5% | +13.2% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | +3.8% | +1.7% | +8.0% | +8.6% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | +5.3% | +2.4% | +13.0% | +10.2% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +2.7% | +1.6% | +10.1% | +23.1% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | +5.4% | -2.0% | +1.6% | +23.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among ADP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 322.00 +11.8% |
| All-time closing high Jun 6, 2025 |
314.38 +9.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 289.13 +0.4% |
| Now | 288.10 |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
288.10 0.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 286.40 -0.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
280.32 -2.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 271.78 -5.7% |
| 50-day average | 271.73 -5.7% |
| 200-day average | 235.79 -18.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 225.00 -21.9% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 10, 2026 |
186.18 -35.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.