AES
Moving with the market
- AES 0.00% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: −0.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AES only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
14.98 +0.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
15.01 +0.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 14.96 · prior close 14.96 | |
| Bargain buy side |
14.94 -0.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
14.91 -0.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 14.93 | 2 in 10 days | 14.99 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 14.94 | 3 in 10 days | 14.98 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 14.94 | 4 in 10 days | 14.98 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 14.89 | 2 in 10 weeks | 15.03 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 14.91 | 3 in 10 weeks | 15.01 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 14.92 | 4 in 10 weeks | 15.00 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AES's daily swings (about 0.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among AES's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 2, 2000 |
44.00 +194.1% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 27, 2026 |
16.87 +12.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 15.01 +0.3% |
| Highest analyst target | 15.00 +0.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 15.00 +0.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 15.00 +0.3% |
| Now | 14.96 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
14.96 0.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 14.91 -0.3% |
| 50-day average | 14.82 -1.0% |
| 200-day average | 14.52 -3.0% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
12.97 -13.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 35 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.