AFL
Moving with the market
- AFL +0.32% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi oversold (Oct 1): After its 7 oversold readings in the past 5 years, AFL typically gained 0.3% over the next day (median) and was higher 57% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -0.7% and +0.8%. An ordinary day: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after oversold readings, that ranks #149 of 496. (Low confidence: few independent periods.)
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#66 H | +0.5%#95 H | +1.7%#49 H | +5.1%#89 M |
| Big drop Sep 30 (-1.3% or worse) | 60 | +0.3%#63 H | +1.0%#26 H | +1.6%#224 H | +4.0%#275 M |
| Big gain (+1.4% or better) | 60 | 0.0%#405 H | +0.3%#300 H | +1.3%#277 H | +3.1%#341 M |
| Earnings beat | 13 | +0.5%#102 M | +1.1%#109 M | +1.7%#131 M | +4.9%#32 M |
| Earnings miss | 7 | -0.2%#233 L | +1.0%#58 L | +0.8%#141 L | +3.7%#55 L |
| 52-week high | 19 | -0.1%#419 M | -1.0%#433 M | -1.5%#471 M | +2.3%#213 M |
| 52-week low | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 8 | -0.4%#478 M | +2.0%#79 M | +4.4%#6 M | +9.9%#17 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 7 | -0.4%#429 L | +0.8%#122 L | +4.3%#15 L | +9.8%#55 L |
| RSI oversold Oct 1 | 7 | +0.3%#149 L | +1.9%#131 L | +3.3%#87 L | +7.9%#54 L |
| RSI overbought | 18 | +0.2%#67 M | -0.3%#371 M | +0.8%#227 M | +4.2%#52 M |
| Reddit spike | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is AFL's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Earnings beat
EPS above the consensus; entry at the close of the session that first traded on it.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 13 | +0.46% (-0.1 to +0.6) | Medium | #102 of 497 | 54% | -0.30% |
-3%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 13 | +1.06% (-0.7 to +2.5) | Medium | #109 of 497 | 62% | +1.20% |
-4%
+3%
|
|
| 1 month | 13 | +1.75% (-0.4 to +2.7) | Medium | #131 of 497 | 62% | +0.64% |
-7%
+9%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 13 | +4.87% (+2.3 to +6.9) | Medium | #32 of 497 | 69% | +0.67% |
-8%
+19%
|
Range of outcomes: all of AFL's earnings beats in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Earnings beat by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 9 | +0.5%M vs +0.1% | +1.1%M vs +0.4% | +1.7%M vs +1.6% | +4.9%M vs +4.2% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 1 | 0.0%– vs +0.3% | +3.3%– vs +1.3% | +5.1%– vs +4.5% | +6.9%– vs +8.2% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 8 | +0.6%M vs +0.1% | +0.4%M vs +0.3% | +0.2%M vs +1.3% | +5.4%M vs +3.6% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 4 | -0.1%L vs +0.2% | +1.8%L vs +0.7% | +3.9%L vs +3.1% | -0.1%L vs +5.8% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 9 | +0.5%M vs +0.1% | +1.6%M vs +0.3% | +1.7%M vs +1.1% | +5.9%M vs +4.2% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 3 | -0.1%L vs +0.1% | +1.1%L vs +0.6% | +2.7%L vs +2.9% | -2.4%L vs +5.5% |
The same event split by where AFL stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest earnings beats
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 | Nov 5 @ $108.96 | 3Q2025 · EPS +$0.71 (+40.2%) vs consensus · +2.2% reaction | +2.2% | +3.0% | -1.2% | +5.9% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Aug 6 @ $99.67 | EPS +$0.07 (+4.1%) vs consensus · +3.4% reaction | 0.0% | +3.3% | +5.1% | +6.9% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Oct 31 @ $100.51 | EPS +$0.48 (+28.6%) vs consensus · -4.8% reaction | -0.1% | +2.5% | +6.8% | +2.3% |
| Jul 31, 2024 | Aug 1 @ $97.03 | EPS +$0.23 (+14.4%) vs consensus · +6.6% reaction | -2.4% | -0.8% | +9.1% | +8.8% |
| May 1, 2024 | May 2 @ $79.76 | EPS +$0.08 (+5.1%) vs consensus · -0.6% reaction | -1.0% | +1.6% | +6.4% | +18.8% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | Nov 2 @ $76.68 | EPS +$0.35 (+23.5%) vs consensus · +3.4% reaction | +0.6% | -1.0% | +1.7% | -6.1% |
| Aug 1, 2023 | Aug 2 @ $71.13 | EPS +$0.14 (+9.7%) vs consensus · +5.7% reaction | +1.1% | -0.7% | -1.6% | +3.0% |
| Apr 26, 2023 | Apr 27 @ $64.40 | EPS +$0.15 (+10.7%) vs consensus · +6.2% reaction | +0.5% | -3.8% | -6.6% | +4.9% |
| Feb 1, 2023 | Feb 2 @ $63.50 | EPS +$0.08 (+6.6%) vs consensus · -6.0% reaction | +0.7% | +1.1% | -0.4% | -2.4% |
| Aug 1, 2022 | Aug 2 @ $53.47 | EPS +$0.18 (+14.1%) vs consensus · +3.6% reaction | +0.5% | +2.9% | +1.8% | +11.6% |
| Apr 27, 2022 | Apr 28 @ $53.56 | EPS +$0.05 (+3.6%) vs consensus · -2.6% reaction | -3.3% | -2.1% | +2.7% | -2.6% |
| Feb 2, 2022 | Feb 3 @ $57.26 | EPS +$0.07 (+5.6%) vs consensus · +0.1% reaction | +1.5% | +2.8% | -6.8% | -8.4% |
| Oct 27, 2021 | Oct 28 @ $49.44 | EPS +$0.24 (+18.2%) vs consensus · -1.1% reaction | -3.1% | +0.6% | +1.2% | +13.3% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.