AFL
Moving with the market
- AFL +0.02% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −0.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 8): After its 59 big gains in the past 5 years, AFL was higher a week later 37 times out of 59; half the outcomes fell between -1.1% and +1.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 4 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 2 negative); latest: Keefe, Bruyette & Woods maintained Market Perform, lowered target $125 → $120.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AFL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
119.37 +1.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
120.82 +2.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 118.24 · prior close 118.21 | |
| Bargain buy side |
117.06 -1.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
115.65 -2.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 116.69 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 119.75 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 117.06 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 119.37 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 117.41 | 4 in 10 days | 119.02 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 114.84 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 121.68 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 115.65 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 120.82 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 116.42 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 120.03 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AFL's daily swings (about 1.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +2.0% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | +1.5% | -1.6% | -0.5% | — |
| Aug 24, 2026 | +1.8% | -2.0% | -2.5% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | +2.4% | -3.4% | -8.9% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +1.7% | +1.1% | -1.3% | -3.4% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +2.0% | +0.9% | +4.8% | -7.6% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +1.9% | -1.3% | +4.7% | -3.0% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | +2.6% | -0.4% | +2.7% | -0.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among AFL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 138.00 +16.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 28, 2026 |
128.90 +9.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 120.82 +2.2% |
| Now | 118.24 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
118.21 0.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 117.80 -0.4% |
| 50-day average | 116.57 -1.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 115.65 -2.2% |
| 200-day average | 114.43 -3.2% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 29, 2025 |
103.54 -12.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 101.00 -14.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.