AM
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- AM −3.56% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: −3.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
21.02 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
21.34 +2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 20.02 · prior close 20.76 | |
| Bargain buy side |
20.51 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
20.20 -2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 20.43 | 2 in 10 days | 21.10 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 20.51 | 3 in 10 days | 21.02 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 20.58 | 4 in 10 days | 20.94 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 20.02 | 2 in 10 weeks | 21.53 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 20.20 | 3 in 10 weeks | 21.34 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 20.37 | 4 in 10 weeks | 21.16 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AM's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among AM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Mar 25, 2026 |
23.12 +15.5% |
| 50-day average | 21.62 +8.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 21.34 +6.6% |
| 200-day average | 21.14 +5.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
20.76 +3.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 20.20 +0.9% |
| Now | 20.02 |
| 52-week closing low Jan 6, 2026 |
16.60 -17.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 9 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.