ASML
Falling despite an earnings beat
- ASML −3.94% on the last session vs SPY −1.08%: −2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 3Q2026 today before the open: EPS $11.82 vs $10.76 expected (beat, +$1.06, +9.9%); revenue $11.7B (-0.5% in line). The stock moved -3.9% on Wed's session (-2.9 pts vs SPY).
- News: Chip equipment sector fell 4.20% as tech declined on inflation concerns and AI trade worries.
- Chip equipment basket -4.2% (-3.1 pts vs SPY; TER -5.5%, LRCX -4.7%, AMAT -3.8%, KLAC -2.8%): the stock moved with its peers. Overnight: Tokyo Electron (Tokyo) -2.7%.
- Aftermath, earnings beat (3Q2026 beat +10%; today is the reaction session): After its 19 earnings beats in the past 5 years, ASML was higher a day later 12 times out of 19; half the outcomes fell between -1.7% and +2.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 64 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 69% positive over the week · today's pace is 9.2× its recent daily average.
- Market backdrop (Today): CPI m/m 0.6% vs 0.6% expected (in line); CPI y/y 3.7% vs 3.6% expected (hotter); S&P futures -0.68%, 10-year yield +12bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume 2.0× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ASML only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
1,687.51 +2.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
1,735.05 +5.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Last close | 1,650.00 | |
| Bargain buy side |
1,613.33 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
1,569.12 -4.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 1,601.59 | 2 in 10 days | 1,699.87 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 1,613.33 | 3 in 10 days | 1,687.51 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 1,624.34 | 4 in 10 days | 1,676.06 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 1,543.72 | 2 in 10 weeks | 1,763.60 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 1,569.12 | 3 in 10 weeks | 1,735.05 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 1,593.18 | 4 in 10 weeks | 1,708.84 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ASML's daily swings (about 2.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | -7.3% | +8.6% | +9.1% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -4.3% | -3.3% | -9.6% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | -5.8% | -0.6% | +5.5% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -4.0% | +0.8% | +4.4% | +3.3% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -7.4% | -2.1% | -11.5% | -1.6% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -4.7% | -2.3% | -3.1% | -11.1% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -6.6% | +13.5% | +7.7% | +4.6% |
| May 12, 2026 | -2.9% | -4.0% | +24.9% | +19.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among ASML's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 2,840.83 +72.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 2,097.15 +27.1% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 30, 2026 |
1,986.87 +20.4% |
| 50-day average | 1,741.30 +5.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 1,735.05 +5.2% |
| Last close Oct 14, 2026 |
1,650.00 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 1,569.12 -4.9% |
| 200-day average | 1,568.55 -4.9% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 21, 2025 |
961.95 -41.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 860.84 -47.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 32 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.