ASML

Falling despite an earnings beat

• ASML −3.94% on the last session vs SPY −1.08%: −2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
• Reported 3Q2026 today before the open: EPS $11.82 vs $10.76 expected (beat, +$1.06, +9.9%); revenue $11.7B (-0.5% in line). The stock moved -3.9% on Wed's session (-2.9 pts vs SPY).
• News: Chip equipment sector fell 4.20% as tech declined on inflation concerns and AI trade worries.
• Chip equipment basket -4.2% (-3.1 pts vs SPY; TER -5.5%, LRCX -4.7%, AMAT -3.8%, KLAC -2.8%): the stock moved with its peers. Overnight: Tokyo Electron (Tokyo) -2.7%.
• Aftermath, earnings beat (3Q2026 beat +10%; today is the reaction session): After its 19 earnings beats in the past 5 years, ASML was higher a day later 12 times out of 19; half the outcomes fell between -1.7% and +2.4%. History, not a forecast.
• 64 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 68% positive over the week · today's pace is 9.1× its recent daily average.
• Market backdrop (Today): CPI m/m 0.6% vs 0.6% expected (in line); CPI y/y 3.7% vs 3.6% expected (hotter); S&P futures -0.68%, 10-year yield +12bp in the 30 minutes after.
• Activity: volume 2.0× its 20-day average.