ASTS
Up as Rocket Lab delays, easing competition
- ASTS +3.16% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +3.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: 247wallst.com reported Rocket Lab's Neutron delay to 2027 due to manufacturing flaw, reducing competitive pressure. (247wallst.com)
- Against the group: its space peers -3.1% (-3.2 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, analyst downgrade (Oct 14): After its 6 analyst downgrades in the past 5 years, ASTS was higher a day later 5 times out of 6; half the outcomes fell between +3.3% and +8.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 144 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 71% positive over the week.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 1 negative); latest: Piper Sandler downgraded to Neutral, lowered target $98.00 → $54.00.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.2× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ASTS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
44.59 +5.8% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
47.82 +13.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 43.47 · prior close 42.14 | |
| Bargain buy side |
39.82 -5.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
37.13 -11.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 39.10 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 45.42 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 39.82 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 44.59 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 40.51 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 43.83 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 35.64 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 49.83 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 37.13 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 47.82 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 38.58 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 46.02 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ASTS's daily swings (about 5.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | -10.5% | — | — | — |
| Aug 24, 2026 | -9.2% | -5.2% | -3.8% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -17.0% | +7.6% | +29.0% | -23.4% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -8.0% | -7.3% | -7.9% | -21.3% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | -15.5% | -11.2% | -19.5% | -27.2% |
| May 29, 2026 | -14.8% | -17.5% | -21.6% | -48.8% |
| May 7, 2026 | -7.5% | +27.0% | +40.9% | +10.1% |
| Apr 14, 2026 | -10.5% | -9.7% | -15.5% | -25.1% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | -8.5% | — | — | — |
| Apr 2, 2024 | -23.6% | +14.9% | +12.4% | +433.3% |
| Feb 7, 2024 | -9.5% | +27.4% | +15.5% | -11.7% |
| Oct 9, 2023 | -12.1% | -3.1% | +21.4% | +49.5% |
| Aug 16, 2023 | -1.5% | +3.9% | +5.8% | +3.9% |
| Dec 6, 2022 | -12.7% | -18.7% | -2.5% | +31.4% |
| Jan 10, 2022 | -5.5% | -13.0% | -11.3% | +40.7% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among ASTS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 28, 2026 |
133.09 +206.2% |
| Highest analyst target | 108.00 +148.4% |
| 200-day average | 80.14 +84.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 74.28 +70.9% |
| 50-day average | 61.31 +41.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 47.82 +10.0% |
| Now | 43.47 |
| Lowest analyst target | 42.50 -2.2% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
42.14 -3.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
42.14 -3.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 37.13 -14.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 7 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.