BMBL
Moving with the market
- BMBL −0.50% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: −0.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Filing: 8-K: material agreement, Reg FD disclosure (item 1.01, 7.01) (filing)
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg (Oct 12): After its 6 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, BMBL was higher a day later 2 times out of 6; half the outcomes fell between -3.2% and +7.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: UBS maintained Neutral, raised target $3.00 → $6.05.
- 11 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 5 insider sales not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices BMBL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
6.86 +14.8% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% |
8.14 +36.3% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 5.94 · prior close 5.97 | |
| Bargain buy side |
5.20 -12.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
4.38 -26.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 4.97 | 2 in 10 days | 7.17 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 5.20 | 3 in 10 days | 6.86 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 5.42 | 4 in 10 days | 6.57 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 3.96 | 2 in 10 weeks | 9.00 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 4.38 | 3 in 10 weeks | 8.14 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 4.81 | 4 in 10 weeks | 7.41 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From BMBL's daily swings (about 14.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | +56.6% | — | — | — |
Big drop and big gain: among BMBL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 16, 2021 |
78.89 +1228.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 8.14 +37.0% |
| Highest analyst target | 6.05 +1.8% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2026 |
5.97 +0.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
5.97 +0.5% |
| Now | 5.94 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 4.38 -26.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 4.05 -31.8% |
| 200-day average | 3.23 -45.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 3.00 -49.5% |
| 50-day average | 2.96 -50.1% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 7, 2026 |
2.50 -57.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.