BTC
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- BTC +2.23% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +1.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- 7 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 75% positive over the week.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,827 | 0.0%#476 H | +0.1%#390 H | +0.2%#372 H | -0.5%#374 H |
| Big drop (-2.4% or worse) | 87 | 0.0%#334 H | -0.1%#406 H | +1.5%#258 H | +3.9%#254 H |
| Big gain (+2.2% or better) | 99 | -0.1%#418 H | -0.1%#393 H | +1.5%#238 H | +4.3%#223 H |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 17 | +1.0%#58 M | +0.8%#142 M | -1.2%#351 M | +6.7%#107 M |
| 52-week low | 6 | -0.3%#144 L | -4.8%#173 L | -5.8%#226 L | +2.5%#150 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 10 | +0.2%#215 M | +2.1%#94 M | +3.4%#172 M | +23.7%#72 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 7 | -2.3%#401 L | +1.1%#106 L | +2.2%#179 L | +7.7%#173 L |
| RSI oversold | 17 | +0.4%#196 M | +1.8%#73 M | +4.7%#106 M | +7.3%#82 M |
| RSI overbought | 22 | -0.4%#352 H | +0.5%#195 H | +7.6%#87 H | +11.5%#110 M |
| Reddit spike | 72 | +0.1%#64 H | +0.4%#51 H | -1.2%#87 H | +2.6%#53 H |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is BTC's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Reddit spike
Daily Reddit mentions at least 3x the prior week's average (20 or more); entry the next session.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 72 | +0.14% (-0.1 to +0.4) | High | #64 of 92 | 53% | +0.11% |
-6%
+10%
|
|
| 1 week | 72 | +0.40% (-0.2 to +1.0) | High | #51 of 92 | 57% | -0.10% |
-12%
+19%
|
|
| 1 month | 71 ≈56 indep. | -1.15% (-2.5 to +1.0) | High | #87 of 91 | 48% | -0.93% |
-34%
+36%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 69 ≈24 indep. | +2.57% (-3.7 to +6.6) | High | #53 of 87 | 54% | -2.15% |
-30%
+55%
|
Range of outcomes: all of BTC's Reddit spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Reddit spike by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 42 | -0.1%H vs 0.0% | +0.1%H vs +0.1% | -1.2%H vs +0.8% | +2.8%M vs +2.6% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 30 | +0.3%H vs 0.0% | +1.5%H vs +0.2% | -1.0%H vs +0.9% | +2.6%M vs +2.0% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 41 | -0.2%H vs 0.0% | +0.2%H vs +0.1% | +0.8%H vs +0.2% | +0.2%M vs +1.8% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 31 | +0.4%H vs 0.0% | +0.6%H vs +0.1% | -1.5%H vs +0.2% | +6.3%M vs -0.5% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 37 | +0.2%H vs -0.1% | +0.2%H vs 0.0% | +2.5%H vs -0.2% | +4.6%M vs +0.4% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 35 | +0.1%H vs +0.1% | +0.6%H vs +0.2% | -2.5%H vs +0.2% | +1.9%H vs -0.6% |
The same event split by where BTC stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest Reddit spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 16 @ $76,150.32 | 32 mentions vs 6.6/day the week before | +0.3% | +13.7% | … | … |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Sep 4 @ $79,671.97 | 43 mentions vs 10.0/day the week before | +0.2% | -1.8% | +5.5% | … |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Aug 17 @ $64,506.25 | 25 mentions vs 0.9/day the week before | +0.3% | +19.5% | +22.6% | … |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Jun 5 @ $60,922.67 | 102 mentions vs 20.4/day the week before | -0.1% | +0.9% | -1.5% | +6.5% |
| May 23, 2026 | May 24 @ $76,981.12 | 40 mentions vs 10.3/day the week before | +0.4% | -4.7% | -14.6% | -15.1% |
| May 17, 2026 | May 18 @ $76,954.17 | 34 mentions vs 0.0/day the week before | -0.3% | -0.4% | -18.0% | -15.2% |
| May 1, 2026 | May 2 @ $78,657.25 | 32 mentions vs 1.4/day the week before | -0.2% | +1.7% | -2.5% | -19.8% |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Apr 9 @ $71,767.83 | 26 mentions vs 0.0/day the week before | +1.7% | +3.4% | +6.3% | -11.4% |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Feb 20 @ $68,005.42 | 59 mentions vs 18.0/day the week before | 0.0% | -0.1% | +4.4% | +13.9% |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Jan 28 @ $89,184.57 | 82 mentions vs 7.1/day the week before | -5.2% | -11.8% | -25.5% | -23.7% |
| Jan 5, 2026 | Jan 6 @ $93,729.03 | 66 mentions vs 20.9/day the week before | -2.6% | -3.1% | -4.9% | -25.4% |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Dec 29 @ $87,138.14 | 25 mentions vs 0.0/day the week before | +1.5% | +4.0% | +6.2% | -21.1% |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Dec 15 @ $86,419.78 | 56 mentions vs 18.1/day the week before | +1.6% | +2.2% | +8.6% | -20.3% |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Nov 14 @ $94,397.79 | 38 mentions vs 2.6/day the week before | +1.2% | -3.1% | -5.3% | +1.2% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Oct 31 @ $109,556.16 | 64 mentions vs 0.6/day the week before | +0.5% | -5.2% | -22.3% | -17.9% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.