CAKE
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | — | 0.0%618/1254 up | +0.4%651/1250 up | +1.9%692/1234 up | +6.7%787/1192 up |
| Big drop (-2.5% or worse) | 55 | — | 0.0%27/55 up | +0.5%31/55 up | +1.2%30/54 up | +8.4%36/51 up |
| Big gain Oct 29 (+3.1% or better) | 64 | — | 0.0%32/64 up | -0.2%31/63 up | +2.0%38/62 up | +7.9%40/59 up |
| Earnings beat Oct 28 | 14 | -0.4%7/14 up | -0.2%7/14 up | +0.1%7/13 up | +5.3%7/13 up | +7.5%8/13 up |
| Earnings miss | 7 | +0.4%4/7 up | +2.8%4/7 up | +1.4%6/7 up | -5.2%3/7 up | -12.1%3/7 up |
| 52-week high | 13 | — | -0.1%6/13 up | +1.4%7/13 up | +2.2%7/13 up | +8.8%8/12 up |
| 52-week low | 1 | — | +5.2%1/1 up | +10.5%1/1 up | +21.1%1/1 up | +49.1%1/1 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 12 | — | -0.2%6/12 up | -0.5%5/12 up | +4.5%10/12 up | +5.7%9/12 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 12 | — | -0.1%6/12 up | +1.6%8/12 up | +3.8%8/12 up | +10.5%9/12 up |
| RSI oversold | 6 | — | +0.7%3/6 up | +1.4%3/6 up | -2.7%2/6 up | +12.5%4/6 up |
| RSI overbought | 14 | — | -0.5%6/14 up | +0.7%8/14 up | +3.7%10/13 up | -0.9%6/13 up |
| Volume spike Oct 28 | 7 | — | +0.2%4/7 up | +3.1%4/6 up | +4.5%4/6 up | +11.6%5/6 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | 2 | — | +0.2%2/2 up | +4.3%2/2 up | +17.0%2/2 up | +44.2%2/2 up |
| Analyst downgrade | 2 | — | +1.5%2/2 up | +11.2%2/2 up | +10.1%1/2 up | +10.6%1/2 up |
| Insider buy | 1 | — | +1.3%1/1 up | -4.8%0/1 up | -6.0%0/1 up | — |
| Insider unplanned sale latest session | 8 | — | +1.1%6/8 up | +0.2%4/8 up | +3.6%5/8 up | +20.4%5/6 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is CAKE's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Any day
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1254 | -0.03% | 618 of 1254 | +0.01% |
-12%
+14%
|
|
| 1 week | 1250 ≈250 indep. | +0.38% | 651 of 1250 | -0.03% |
-25%
+21%
|
|
| 1 month | 1234 ≈59 indep. | +1.92% | 692 of 1234 | +0.49% |
-28%
+46%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 1192 ≈19 indep. | +6.65% | 787 of 1192 | +2.56% |
-31%
+98%
|
Range of outcomes: all of CAKE's days in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Any day by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 793 | 0.0%792 events vs 0.0% | +0.1%788 events vs +0.1% | +1.8%772 events vs +1.8% | +5.8%730 events vs +5.8% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 263 | +0.2%263 events vs +0.2% | +1.4%263 events vs +1.4% | +6.0%263 events vs +6.0% | +11.7%263 events vs +11.7% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 740 | -0.1%739 events vs -0.1% | +0.2%736 events vs +0.2% | +2.1%720 events vs +2.1% | +5.4%683 events vs +5.4% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 466 | +0.1%466 events vs +0.1% | +1.0%465 events vs +1.0% | +3.1%465 events vs +3.1% | +10.2%460 events vs +10.2% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 704 | -0.1%703 events vs -0.1% | +0.3%702 events vs +0.3% | +2.8%687 events vs +2.8% | +7.4%662 events vs +7.4% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 532 | +0.1%532 events vs +0.1% | +0.8%529 events vs +0.8% | +1.7%528 events vs +1.7% | +6.8%511 events vs +6.8% |
The same event split by where CAKE stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.