CAKE
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | — | 0.0%618/1254 up | +0.4%651/1250 up | +1.9%692/1234 up | +6.7%787/1192 up |
| Big drop (-2.5% or worse) | 55 | — | 0.0%27/55 up | +0.5%31/55 up | +1.2%30/54 up | +8.4%36/51 up |
| Big gain Oct 29 (+3.1% or better) | 64 | — | 0.0%32/64 up | -0.2%31/63 up | +2.0%38/62 up | +7.9%40/59 up |
| Earnings beat Oct 28 | 14 | -0.4%7/14 up | -0.2%7/14 up | +0.1%7/13 up | +5.3%7/13 up | +7.5%8/13 up |
| Earnings miss | 7 | +0.4%4/7 up | +2.8%4/7 up | +1.4%6/7 up | -5.2%3/7 up | -12.1%3/7 up |
| 52-week high | 13 | — | -0.1%6/13 up | +1.4%7/13 up | +2.2%7/13 up | +8.8%8/12 up |
| 52-week low | 1 | — | +5.2%1/1 up | +10.5%1/1 up | +21.1%1/1 up | +49.1%1/1 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 12 | — | -0.2%6/12 up | -0.5%5/12 up | +4.5%10/12 up | +5.7%9/12 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 12 | — | -0.1%6/12 up | +1.6%8/12 up | +3.8%8/12 up | +10.5%9/12 up |
| RSI oversold | 6 | — | +0.7%3/6 up | +1.4%3/6 up | -2.7%2/6 up | +12.5%4/6 up |
| RSI overbought | 14 | — | -0.5%6/14 up | +0.7%8/14 up | +3.7%10/13 up | -0.9%6/13 up |
| Volume spike Oct 28 | 7 | — | +0.2%4/7 up | +3.1%4/6 up | +4.5%4/6 up | +11.6%5/6 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | 2 | — | +0.2%2/2 up | +4.3%2/2 up | +17.0%2/2 up | +44.2%2/2 up |
| Analyst downgrade | 2 | — | +1.5%2/2 up | +11.2%2/2 up | +10.1%1/2 up | +10.6%1/2 up |
| Insider buy | 1 | — | +1.3%1/1 up | -4.8%0/1 up | -6.0%0/1 up | — |
| Insider unplanned sale latest session | 8 | — | +1.1%6/8 up | +0.2%4/8 up | +3.6%5/8 up | +20.4%5/6 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is CAKE's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Earnings miss
EPS below the consensus; entry at the close of the session that first traded on it.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reaction day | 7 | +0.37% | 4 of 7 | -0.49% |
-5%
+5%
|
|
| 1 day | 7 | +2.81% | 4 of 7 | +1.90% |
-2%
+7%
|
|
| 1 week | 7 | +1.36% | 6 of 7 | +1.00% |
-6%
+6%
|
|
| 1 month | 7 | -5.17% | 3 of 7 | -4.56% |
-12%
+10%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 7 ≈6 indep. | -12.07% | 3 of 7 | -12.56% |
-25%
+23%
|
Range of outcomes: all of CAKE's earnings misses in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Earnings miss by trend
| When it happened | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 2 | -5.1%2 events vs 0.0% | -0.6%1 events vs 0.0% | +0.3%1 events vs +0.1% | -11.6%1 events vs +1.8% | -12.1%1 events vs +5.8% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 2 | -2.0%1 events vs +0.2% | +2.8%2 events vs +0.2% | +1.7%2 events vs +1.4% | +6.8%2 events vs +6.0% | +18.4%2 events vs +11.7% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 4 | -3.6%4 events vs -0.1% | +1.1%4 events vs -0.1% | +1.7%4 events vs +0.2% | -2.7%4 events vs +2.1% | +0.6%4 events vs +5.4% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 2 | +3.5%2 events vs +0.1% | +0.5%2 events vs +0.1% | -2.1%2 events vs +1.0% | +1.3%2 events vs +3.1% | -3.8%2 events vs +10.2% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 5 | -2.0%5 events vs -0.1% | -1.2%3 events vs -0.1% | +1.3%3 events vs +0.3% | -7.5%3 events vs +2.8% | -21.7%3 events vs +7.4% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 3 | +2.0%1 events vs +0.1% | +2.8%3 events vs +0.1% | +1.4%3 events vs +0.8% | +3.5%3 events vs +1.7% | +14.0%3 events vs +6.8% |
The same event split by where CAKE stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest earnings misses
| Event | Entry | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2023 | Nov 2 @ $28.21 | EPS −$0.03 (−7.1%) vs consensus · -2.0% reaction | -2.0% | +2.8% | +1.4% | +10.1% | +14.0% |
| Feb 22, 2023 | Feb 23 @ $35.18 | EPS −$0.03 (−5.1%) vs consensus · -5.1% reaction | -5.1% | -0.6% | +0.3% | -11.6% | -12.1% |
| Nov 1, 2022 | Nov 2 @ $29.28 | EPS −$0.32 (<−100%) vs consensus · -5.2% reaction | -5.2% | +2.8% | +2.1% | +3.5% | +22.8% |
| Jul 27, 2022 | Jul 28 @ $26.53 | EPS −$0.25 (−32.5%) vs consensus · +4.9% reaction | +4.9% | -1.2% | +1.3% | +8.2% | +13.4% |
| Apr 27, 2022 | Apr 28 @ $33.46 | EPS −$0.04 (−7.8%) vs consensus · +2.0% reaction | +2.0% | -1.9% | -5.5% | -7.5% | -21.7% |
| Feb 16, 2022 | Feb 17 @ $36.49 | EPS −$0.09 (−15.5%) vs consensus · +0.4% reaction | +0.4% | +4.7% | +5.5% | -8.9% | -25.1% |
| Nov 3, 2021 | Nov 4 @ $38.69 | EPS −$0.05 (−7.1%) vs consensus · +2.0% reaction | +2.0% | +7.2% | +2.2% | -5.2% | -16.1% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.