CAT
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- CAT −2.29% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: −2.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg (Oct 9): After its 7 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, CAT was higher a day later 5 times out of 7; half the outcomes fell between +0.0% and +2.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.1× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices CAT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
765.66 +2.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
786.79 +5.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 731.86 · prior close 748.98 | |
| Bargain buy side |
732.67 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
712.99 -4.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 727.44 | 2 in 10 days | 771.15 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 732.67 | 3 in 10 days | 765.66 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 737.57 | 4 in 10 days | 760.57 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 701.68 | 2 in 10 weeks | 799.47 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 712.99 | 3 in 10 weeks | 786.79 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 723.70 | 4 in 10 weeks | 775.14 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From CAT's daily swings (about 2.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -5.7% | -8.0% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -4.2% | +4.1% | -1.4% | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -2.3% | +4.7% | +6.1% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -4.6% | -3.5% | -5.0% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -3.7% | +4.2% | -2.3% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -2.2% | -7.0% | -9.3% | -13.9% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -6.9% | -5.3% | -17.7% | -18.1% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -3.7% | +8.2% | -8.9% | -17.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among CAT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 1,155.00 +57.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 30, 2026 |
1,062.93 +45.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 970.80 +32.6% |
| 50-day average | 815.21 +11.4% |
| 200-day average | 803.35 +9.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 786.79 +7.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
748.98 +2.3% |
| Now | 731.86 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 712.99 -2.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 575.00 -21.4% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 22, 2025 |
510.79 -30.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 65 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.